Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Analyst upgrades, tactical calls and initiations, SHEIN buying Everlane, valuation is only $100M, store opening announcements continue to outpace closings, Primark is preparing to launch full-scale e-commerce, the latest CRE developments...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Monday, May 18, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Analyst Actions, SHEIN Buying Everlane and Our Latest Store Opening/Closing Analysis...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (5/18)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- Under Armour doing investor meetings, hosted by Oppenheimer
Tuesday (5/19)
- Amer Sports reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.84B/$0.31
- LuxExperience reports 3Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of EUR629.9M/(EUR0.12)
- Home Depot reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 0.8%, EPS of $3.41
- Pending Home Sales for April at 10:00 am, Street at +1.0% m/m vs. prior +1.5%
Wednesday (5/20)
- LuxExperience at the Morgan Stanley Luxury Conference in Paris at 2:00 am ET
- Target reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 2.3%, EPS of $1.45
- VF Corporation reports 4Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $2.13B/($0.01)
- Lowe's reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 0.6%, EPS of $2.97
- TJX reports 1Q27, call 11:00 am, Street at comps up 4.1%, EPS of $1.02
- e.l.f. Beauty reports 4Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $422.9M/$0.29
- Urban Outfitters reports 1Q27, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 4.7%, EPS of $1.14
Thursday (5/21)
- LuxExperience at the Citi Luxury and Premium Brands Conference in Paris at 2:00 am ET
- Brilliant Earth at the B. Riley Securities Annual Investor Conference in CA
- Walmart reports 1Q27, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 4.1%, EPS of $0.66
- Advance Auto Parts reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.9%, EPS of $0.43
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/16/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 212K vs. prior 211K
- Housing Starts for April at 8:30 am, Street at down 8.8% m/m vs. prior +10.8%
- Ralph Lauren reports 4Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.85B/$2.54
- Shoe Carnival reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps down 3.3%, EPS of $0.23
- Ross Stores reports 1Q26, call 4:15 pm, Street at comps up 9.4%, EPS of $1.73
- Deckers Brands reports 4Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $1.09B/$0.83
Friday (5/22)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- BJ's Wholesale reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 1.5%, EPS of $1.03
- U. Mich. Sentiment for May (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 48.3 vs. prior 48.2
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 1.1% as of ~11:00 am vs. a 0.3% decline in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are outperforming after a difficult stretch and in front of results from sector bellwethers Home Depot and Lowe's, Walmart and Target, and TJX and Ross, starting tomorrow morning.
- Stronger retail stocks include TLYS, which is up 10% on no news as far as we can tell, CRI (up 7%, inside buying), AAP (up 5%, Evercore designates the stock a Tactical Outperform), DLTH (up 4%) and FND (up 4%).
- Weaker retail stocks include BRLT, DBGI, RENT, BBWI and DKS, all down 3%-5%.
Last Week: The XRT fell by a sharp 6.7% vs. a slight gain in the S&P 500, which hit fresh all-time highs during the week as investors overlooked disconcerting inflation readings and focused on strong corporate earnings but fell 1.2% Friday as oil prices rose again and prompted some profit-taking. Retail stocks underperformed dramatically on concerns about the impact of the spike in fuel prices and resurgent inflation on consumer discretionary spending. Noteworthy retail developments included eBay's rejection of GameStop's $55B+ buyout proposal, Amazon's official launch of 30-minute delivery in the US, and Zodiac Partners' all-cash tender offer for Destination XL. Also, WWD said ABG is "circling" Kontoor's Lee brand, and the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed 5.5% y/y growth in core retail sales in April after +7.1% in March.
- Weaker retail stocks included SNBR, which reported a weak 1Q26 and fell 46%, DBGI (down 34%, gave revenue + cash flow guidance through mid-2027), VRA (down 22%), BIRK (down 21%, downside results) and UAA (down 20%, in-line results but soft guidance and an analyst downgrade).
- Stronger retail stocks included EBAY, which rose 8%, DXLG (up 8%), NGVC (up 8%), JD (up 6%, reported 1Q26) and CVS (up 6%, sale of Omnicare rec'd court approval).
2026 Year-to-Date: The XRT is down 7.3% vs. an 8.2% gain in the S&P 500.
- Weaker retail stocks include DBGI, which is down 91%, also SNBR (down 82%), ODD (down 69%), RENT (down 52%) and ARHS (down 49%).
- Stronger retail stocks include TLYS, which is up 103%, also LVLU (up 84%), CASY (up 54%), DLTH (up 44%) and VRA (up 34%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Deckers (DECK, $93.56) Piper Sander upgrades from Underweight to Neutral
- VF Corporation (VFC, $16.68) Williams Trading upgrades from Sell to Buy
- Canada Goose (GOOS, $9.57) Williams Trading upgrades from Sell to Hold
- Advance Auto (AAP, $47.17) Evercore ISI adds to its Tactical Outperform List
- The TJX Companies (TJX, $147.43) Truist initiates with a Buy rating
- Ross Stores (ROST, $212.75) Truist initiates with a Buy rating and $270 target
- Yesway (YSWY, $25.84) Eight firms initiate with five Buy, three Neutral ratings
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Primark (UK) is preparing to launch full-scale e-commerce for the first time acc'd to The Times, which says the company is under increasing pressure to respond to growing competition with SHEIN and Temu and notes Primark's recent efforts to acquire an automated FC in the UK.
WHP Global and G-III's recently-announced acquisition of Marc Jacobs via a 50/50 JV -- WHP will manage licensing, while G-III will manage the brand's operating business, including DTC and wholesale -- is valued at $850M, or $425M each acc'd to SEC docs filed late last week.
- The transaction is expected to close in G-III's 3Q26, which ends in October.
Walmart's Walmart+ $98 per year membership program added 3.9M new subscribers in the month of March acc'd to a recent report from Morgan Stanley, which puts total subs at 30.7M.
Boot Barn CEO John Hazen said last week during the 4Q26 (March) conference call new stores are doing ~$3.2M in annual sales in the first year of operation and paying back the initial investment in less than two years, while stores opened within the past five years that have entered the comparable store sales base added ~150 bps to consolidated same-store sales in FY26.
Cap Capital (UK) was the winning bidder for Spanish bridal brand Pronovias and submitted a better offer than competitors Desigual (Spain) and Enduring Ventures (San Francisco).
SHEIN is buying Everlane from majority owner L Catterton acc'd to Bloomberg, which says the transaction values the sustainable-focused San Francisco-based women's fashion brand at $100M, down sharply from its peak, and notes holders of the common stock will not receive a payout. Bloomberg also says Everlane has struggled financially but is a favorite with some celebrities, including Meghan Markle, who like its "minimalistic, quiet luxury."
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
U.S. Polo Assn. (1,200+ stores in 190 countries) opened a new 3K sf flagship in Miami, on Biscayne Boulevard at Bayside Marketplace, will soon open a 1K sf flagship in Times Square, plans to open stores in Chicago and Tulare, CA this year, and is targeting 1,500 stores longer term.
Rejuvenation, which is owned by Williams-Sonoma, has 13 stores and specializes in residential lighting and hardware, is planning to open a new store in Dallas, at Inwood Village.
Free People, which is part of Urban Outfitters and has 180+ stores acc'd to its website, opened a new 3,300 sf store in Savannah, GA Friday, location is 320 West Broughton Street.
Veronica Beard opened its 46th store last week acc'd to WWD, in Jackson Hole, WY, will open a new store in Vancouver near the end of the month, and plans to open its first store in Paris in June, will be the brand's sixth international store, including three stores in Canada and two in London.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
STORE OPENING/CLOSING ANALYSIS
Significant YTD Announcements
So far this year, US retailers have announced plans to open/close ~3,170/~2,885 stores by our analysis, which covers all sectors except auto retail and excludes opening/closing announcements that were made in 2025 and prior but will carry over into 2026 and beyond.
The numbers this time last week were ~3,090/~2,885, and this time last year we tracked ~2,950/~2,105 YTD announced openings/closings.
For all of 2025, we tracked ~5,525 announced store openings, down 20% from 2024, and ~4,820 announced store closings, down 45% from 2024.
Note that openings/closings are specific numbers that have been announced, not completed, and could extend over several years.
Also note we include select non-US retailers (e.g. ALDI, POP MART, Lululemon) in our totals and small numbers of openings/closings if it's a significant development (e.g. digitally-native brands opening their first stores, highlighted below with an asterisk*), that we don't count concessions, pop-ups, seasonal stores, pilots, JV/partner-operated stores, acquired stores, or conversions, and that our closing tally excludes closings that are part of an ongoing business plan.
Latest Store Opening/Closing Announcements: Boot Barn reported strong 4Q26 (March) results last week and announced plans to open 70 new stores in its FY27 after opening 80 in FY26, including 10 that were previously planned for FY27 but were accelerated into 4Q26, and the company reaffirmed a longer-term target to operate 1,200 stores across the US.
Grocery Outlet reported a tough but better-than-expected 1Q26 (March) and reaffirmed plans to open 30-33 net new stores this year and also said it has now closed 36 underperforming stores as part of its Optimization Plan, a.k.a. Brands reported results and reaffirmed plans to open eight Princess Polly stores in the US, and Wayfair announced plans for a seventh store, 130K sf, location is 4825 Marburg Ave within the Center of Cincinnati in Cincinnati, will open next year.
Ocean State Job Lot said it has signed leases to open four more stores in sites that were previously occupied by Big Lots, and Whole Foods announced plans to open its small-format Whole Foods Market Daily Shop in Boston, Chicago and Philadelphia over the next two years.
Also last week, Cider, a digitally-native, Los Angeles-based women's fast-fashion retailer focused on Gen Z consumers, backed by Andreesen Horowitz, and valued at nearly $1B, opened its first store, ~8K sf at The Original Farmers Market at The Grove in L.A., is planning to open a second store in San Jose, at the Westfield Valley Fair, and plans to open more stores in the months ahead.
Latest Store Closing Announcements: Fossil reported 1Q26 (March) last week and reaffirmed plans to close 15 of its nearly 200 stores this year.
- Dollar Gen (~450 on ~20,900 note)
- Dollar Tree (~400 on 9,282)
- O'Reilly (225-235 net on 6,585 note)
- 7-Eleven NA (200+ on 13K+)
- ALDI U.S. (180+ on 2,600+ note)
- Five Below (~150 net on 1,921)
- TJX (146 net on 5,200+ globally)
- Yesway (130 on ~450)
- Academy Sports (~125 on 322 note)
- Ross Stores (110 on 1,900+)
- Burlington (110 net on 1,212)
- Goodwill (100+ on ~3,400)
- Whole Foods (100 on 550+)
- Tractor Supply (~100 on ~2,400 note)
- Sheetz (100 on 830+)
- Paymore (90+ on 100+)
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet (75 on 645)
- Boot Barn (70 on 539)
- Citi Trends (~65 on 590+)
- Bath & Body Wks (60+ net on 2,500)
- CVS (~60 on ~9K note)
- Barnes & Noble (60 on 670)
- Urban Outfitters (57 on 784 owned)
- Abercrombie (55 on 829 owned)
- Levi Strauss (50-60 net on 3,400+)
- Ulta Beauty (50-60 net on 1,591)
- Build-A-Bear (50+ net on 660+ note)
- Warby Parker* (50 on 323)
- Advance Auto (40-45 on 4,300+)
- Lululemon (40-45 net owned on 811)
- Fabletics* (40 on 120)
- Aerie and OFFLINE (35-40 on 330+)
- Dick's House of Sport (32 on 35 note)
- Grocery Outlet (30-33 net on 570)
- Target (30+ on ~2K note)
- Birkenstock Amer (30 net on ~15)
- Ernesta* (26 on 4)
- Fleet Feet + Marathon (~25 on 310+)
- Genesco (23 on 1,236)
- Nordstrom Rack (23 in 2026 on ~300)
- Dick's Field House (22 on 42 note)
- Trader Joe's (20+ on 600+)
- POP MART (20+ on 60+)
- Walmart U.S. (~20 on 4,600+ note)
- Love's Travel Stops (20 on ~670)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 on 512)
- Floor & Decor (20 on 270)
- Bob's Discount Furn (~20 on 209)
- Kendra Scott (20 on ~170 note)
- HEYDUDE (~20 mostly outlets on 75)
- Cotopaxi* (20 on 20)
- Home Depot (~15 on 2,359)
- Windsor (15 on ~350)
- Golf Galaxy (~15 on 113)
- UNIQLO USA (14 on 78)
- Aritzia (12-13 mostly US on 144 total)
- The Buckle (11-13 net on 440)
- Advance Mega Hub (10-15 on 33)
- Garage (10-12 net on 300)
- Signet Jewelers (up to 10 on 2,582)
- Publix (~10 on 1,400+)
- Cato (up to 10 on 1,070)
- IKEA US (10 on 54)
- Vivaia* (10 on 1)
- Lovesac (8 net on 278)
- a.k.a.'s Princess Polly* (8 on 13 US)
- Salomon (7-10 on 2 US)
- Purple (7 on 55)
- BYLT* (7 on 15)
- Haverty Furniture (6 net on 129)
- Big Y (6 on 77)
- RH (6 on 75)
- Zumiez (5 US on 716 total worldwide)
- J.Jill (5 net on 256)
- Whole Foods Daily Market (5 on 5)
- Kurt Geiger London (5 on 5 US)
- Wayfair* (5 on 2 note)
- Tilly's (4-6 on 224)
- Arhaus (4-6 on 107)
- Food Lion (4 on 1,100+)
- Best Buy (4 net US on 1K+ in NA)
- Ocean State Job Lot (4 on 175)
- Chair King (4 on 52)
- FIGS* (4 on 5)
- Meijer (3 on 500+)
- Bassett Furniture (3 on 86)
- Albertsons' Tom Thumb (3 on ~70)
- Brilliant Earth* (3 on 42)
- Suitsupply (3 US on ~40 US)
- Boll & Branch* (3 on 15)
- Whole Foods Mkt Daily Shop (3 on 8)
- Brochu Walker (3 on 5)
- BRUNT Workwear (3 on 0)
- CardVault by Tom Brady (2 on 10)
- Yellow Rose Kendra Scott* (2 on 3)
- Amazon* Big Box (2 on 0)
- Cider* (2 on 0)
- Thursday Boot Company* (1 on 4)
- Revolve* (1 on 2)
- Povision* (1 on 0)
- GameStop (700+ US of 2,300+ note)
- 7-Eleven NA (645 of 13K+)
- Francesca's (450+ of 450+)
- Eddie Bauer US + Can (~175 of ~175)
- Family Dollar (~100 of 8K+)
- Signet Jewelers (~100 of 2,582)
- Value City Furniture (79 of 79)
- Dollar Tree (~75 of 9,282)
- Genesco (75 of 1,236)
- Saks OFF 5TH (57 of 69)
- Amazon Fresh (57 of 57)
- Cato (up to 40 of 1,070)
- Grocery Outlet (36 of 570)
- CVS (~35 of ~9K note)
- American Eagle (25-30 AE of 805 AE)
- Abercrombie (25 of 829 owned)
- Zumiez (25 of 716 total worldwide)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 of 512)
- Allbirds* US full-price (~20 of ~20)
- Saks Fifth Avenue full-line (18 of 33)
- Petco (15-20 net of 1,382)
- Fossil (15 of 199)
- Amazon Go (15 of 15)
- Albertsons (14 net of 2,200+)
- Urban Outfitters (14 of 784 owned)
- Ross Stores (10-15 of 1,900+)
- Amer. Signature Furniture (10 of 10)
- Sportsman's Warehouse (5 of ~150)
- Neiman Marcus Last Call (5 of 5)
- Tilly's (4 of 224)
- Apple US retail (3 of ~270)
- Vince (3 net of 60)
- Neiman Marcus full-line (3 of 36)
- Nordstrom (2 of ~90 full-line)
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out last Thursday, headline Retail Sales for April were close to expectations and grew 0.5% m/m after a slightly revised 1.6% increase in March, while ex-auto Retail Sales increased by a very solid 0.7% in April vs. the Street's +0.5% estimate after a nearly 2% m/m increase in March.
- On a year-over-year basis, headline Retail Sales increased 4.9% after +4.2% in March.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Bigger tax refunds -- the average refund is ~$325 higher than last year -- certainly contributed to Retail Sales growth in both March and April, but even adjusting for this, consumers are showing good resilience to the spike in gas prices and pick-up in inflation.
Also out Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/9/26 were close to expectations at 211K vs. the Street's 207K and up 12K from an extremely low and slightly revised 199K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose slightly, to 1.78M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out Wednesday, the headline Producer Price Index for April was much "hotter" than expected and increased 6.0% y/y vs. the Street's +5.0% estimate and after an upwardly revised +4.3% in March, while core PPI excluding food and energy, increased 5.2% after a revised +4.0%.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to maritime shipping and fuel prices remain elevated, inflationary pressures are likely to continue to build and reduce consumers' discretionary spending power while continuing to negatively impact confidence.
Source: Commerce Dept and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Advance Auto (AAP, $47.17) Evercore ISI maintains an In Line rating but raises its target from $60 to $65 and adds AAP to its Tactical Outperform list in front of 1Q26 (April) results Thursday morning, sees potential for a rebound in the stock following recent weakness.
Burlington (BURL, $293.60) Truist initiates with a Hold rating and $305 target in front of 1Q26 (April) results next Thursday morning, makes positive comments about the off-price sector but thinks the company's near- to medium-term performance could be held back by Burlington's higher exposure to lower-income consumers and various competitive disadvantages vs. TJX and Ross, which it says have better access to the best inventory and more scale to generate traffic.
Canada Goose (GOOS, $9.57) Williams Trading upgrades from Sell to Hold and maintains its C$12 target after last week's 4Q26 (March) results, says the upgrade is largely a call on valuation as the stock approaches its price target.
Deckers (DECK, $93.56) Piper Sander upgrades from Underweight to Neutral and raises its target from $95 to $100 in front of 4Q26 (March) results Thursday afternoon, thinks the numbers will be better than expected against negative investor sentiment and believes risk/reward is now more balanced, also says it continues to prefer On Holding (ONON, $37.26) over DECK.
Ross Stores (ROST, $212.75) Truist initiates with a Buy rating and $270 target in front of 1Q26 (April) results Thursday afternoon, believes Ross is very well positioned for strong growth over the longer-term and notes execution, a significant store growth opportunity, and growing traction with social media, expects strong revenue growth and sees margin improvement potential.
The TJX Companies (TJX, $147.43) Truist initiates with a Buy rating and $175 target in front of 1Q27 (April) results Wednesday morning, thinks the company is well positioned to generate sustained sales and earnings growth as it benefits from scale advantages within off-price and says TJX has superior access to inventory, convenient store locations, and strong traffic trends.
VF Corporation (VFC, $16.68) Williams Trading upgrades from Sell to Buy and raises its target from $14 to $19 in front of 4Q26 (March) results Wednesday morning, says there are signs of improving trends and building momentum at Vans, though it also has concerns about Timberland.
Yesway (YSWY, $25.84) Eight firms initiate coverage with five Buy or equivalent and three Neutral or equivalent ratings and targets ranging from $28 (Goldman and Morgan Stanley, both Neutral) to $31 (Barclays and KeyBanc, both Buy) following the expiration of the quiet period for the firms involved with the recent IPO; the Buy argument centers around 130 planned new store openings over the next five years, strong unit economics, and potential for high-single-digit EBITDA growth.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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