Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Academy's comp trend improving, esp at newer stores, Designer Brands still struggling, core retail sales accelerate in May from already-strong levels, gas prices remain above $4 per gallon but are easing from recent highs, Existing Home Sales rise 3%...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, June 9, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Academy Doing Better, Designer Brands Not So Much, Strong May Retail Sales, Gas Prices Easing...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/8)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- Capri Holdings doing investor meetings this week, hosted by Maxim
- Duluth Trading reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $93.7M/($0.39)
- Duluth Trading Investor Day at 11:00 am, will be webcast
Tuesday (6/9)
- Macy's at the Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference
- e.l.f. Beauty at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference
- Lands' End reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, no Street consensus estimates
- Designer Brands reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.03
- Existing Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at 4.07M SAAR vs. prior 4.02M
- Academy Sports reports 1Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at comps up 2.5%, EPS of $0.91
- FIGS at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at noon
- Walmart at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at 3:00 pm
- Casey's reports 4Q26 after the close, Street at comps up 4.9%, EPS of $3.31
- BARK reports 4Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $96.3M/($0.35)
- Tapestry doing a dinner with investors in NYC, hosted by BTIG
Wednesday (6/10)
- Steve Madden doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by Needham
- Chewy reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $3.35B/$0.24
- J.Jill reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps down 7.9%, EPS of $0.42
- Consumer Price Index for May at 8:30 am, Street at +4.2% y/y vs. prior +3.8%
- Casey's 4Q26 call at 8:30 am
- Walmart at the Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference at 9:50 am
- Fossil doing a call with investors at noon, hosted by Northland
- Oxford Industries reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $391.8M/$1.29
- Stitch Fix reports 3Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $333.5M/($0.06)
Thursday (6/11)
- Walmart doing meetings at the D.A. Davidson Technology & Consumer Conference
- Producer Price Index for May at 8:30 am, Street at +6.4% y/y vs. prior +6.0%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/6/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 216K vs. prior 225K
- Lovesac reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $136.3M/($1.05)
- Vera Bradley reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, no Street consensus estimates
- RH reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $792.6M/($2.12)
Friday (6/12)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- Lovesac at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at 9:45 am
- U. Mich. Sentiment for June (preliminary) at 10:00 am, Street at 47.8 vs. prior 44.8
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 1.4% as of ~10:55 am vs. a 0.2% decline in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are outperforming as Academy Sports + Outdoors reports a slightly better-than-expected first quarter and boosts guidance and as gas prices show continued week-to-week easing.
- Stronger retail stocks include SNBR, which is up 17% on continued bankruptcy-concern volatility, also FND (up 8%), ODD (up 8%), W (up 7%) and DLTH (up 7%).
- Weaker retail stocks include DBI, which is down 17% after a mixed 1Q26, also LVLU (down 8%), YSWY (down 7%), VNCE (down 5%) and SFM (down 2%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- The +2.9% comp was against (3.7%) last year and was driven by increases in both traffic and ticket, while total sales grew 7% y/y to $1.44B on the comp and new store growth.
- E-commerce sales grew 17% y/y, and new stores comped in the +high-single digits.
- Adjusted EPS grew 22% y/y to $0.93 vs. the Street's $0.91 estimate.
- Inventories look good and were up 6% at the end of the quarter, close to sales growth.
- FY26 guidance includes comps of flat to up 2% vs. the Street's +0.9% estimate, total sales of $6.23B-$6.36B, up 4% y/y at the mid-point, a flattish gross margin when using the mid-point of a range, and adjusted EPS of $6.40-$6.80 vs. $5.78 last year and the Street's $6.29.
- Guidance assumes inflationary pressures will continue to negatively impact consumer discretionary spending through the balance of the year.
- ASO plans to open 20-25 stores this year on a base of 322, implies ~7% growth.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Academy is still significantly underperforming Dick's SG, but trends are improving despite the company's greater exposure to consumers with more moderate incomes, and the strong performance of new stores is very encouraging as ASO grows into new markets.
- The (1.1%) comp was on top of a sharp 7.8% drop last year and incorporated a 1.2% decrease in the Retail segment and a 3.0% increase in the Brand Portfolio (DTC channel), while consolidated sales grew 1% y/y to $696.4M vs. the Street's $696.8M estimate.
- The two-year-stacked comp deteriorated to (8.9%) after (1.4%) in the fourth quarter.
- Adjusted EPS were $0.07 vs. ($0.27) last year and the Street's ($0.03) estimate.
- Inventories look good and were down 6% y/y at the end of the quarter.
- FY26 guidance includes consolidated sales down 1% to up 1% vs. FY25's $2.89B and EPS of $0.28-$0.38 vs. $0.16 in FY25 and the Street's $0.40 estimate.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: There are some positives here, including the strong, structurally driven gross margin performance and lean inventory position, but the basic trend remains quite weak and reflects a variety of factors including a tough footwear industry dynamic, especially with tariffs, stiff competition with online pure-plays including Amazon/Zappos, and macro pressures.
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
Core retail sales were strong again in May and increased 7.0% y/y when excluding autos, gas and restaurants, an acceleration from April's +5.7%, while core retail sales grew 0.4% in May on a month-to-month basis, the eighth straight month of m/m increases, even with the recent spike in fuel prices, renewed inflationary pressures and war in Iran and across parts of the Middle East.
- That's all per the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which has core sales up 6.2% y/y YTD.
- The strongest merchandise categories in May on a y/y basis were electronics/appliance, up 11.6%, clothing/accessories, up 10.3%, and health and personal care, up 8.9%.
- Weaker/underperforming categories included building and garden supply, down 1.9%, furniture and home furnishings, up 3.4%, and grocery and beverage, up 6.0%.
- The continued strength in retail sales reflects factors including bigger tax refunds than last year, accelerating jobs growth and the strong stock market.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, $5.48) is acquiring a Detroit-based home installation, renovation and project execution company called Installed Right and SFV Services through the issuance of 7.2M BBBY shares to the founding family as part of a buildout of its dedicated home services platform.
- Installed Right and SFV Services did ~$60M in revs and ~$5M in adjusted EBITDA in the most recent fiscal year, and the deal is expected to be immediately accretive to Bed Bath & Beyond's adjusted EBITDA post closing, which is expected to happen later this month.
Lands' End (LE, $11.21) had a tough quarter against no Street consensus estimates and cited temporary operational disruptions related to upgrades at its US distribution center, which management says is now "behind us," while also calling out double-digit traffic gains in the quarter, improved new customer acquisition, and double-digit revenue growth in Europe.
- Total revenues fell 9% y/y to $238.9M after 5% y/y growth in the fourth quarter.
- Absent the temporary operational disruptions, revs would have grown by a LSD%.
- Adjusted EBITDA was ($6.2M) vs. $9.5M last year and incorporated 410 bps of gross margin pressure on the disruptions, royalty fees to JV partner WHP, and tariff impacts.
- Inventories are high, up 14% y/y, mostly on the DC disruptions and tariffs, but are expected to better align with sales trends as operations normalize and flow improves.
- Management gave first-time guidance for FY26 and expects revs of $1.3B-$1.4B vs. $1.34B in FY25 and adjusted EBITDA of $68M-$78M vs. $102.3M last year.
Duluth Trading (DLTH, $4.31) held a 2026 Investor and Analyst Event in NYC yesterday and discussed plans to double its EBITDA by 2028 through its "Build to Last" strategy, which has three phases, including the current "Frame the Structure" focused on reenergizing the core customer base and shifting marketing from heavy promotions to long-term brand building, release here.
ThredUp (TDUP, $4.93) has launched a peer-to-peer selling model in open beta, called Direct Listing and is built directly into ThredUp's existing marketplace, press release here.
Dollar General said last week during its first quarter conference call delivery sales through MyDG Delivery and 3P services DoorDash and Uber Eats contributed 70 bps of the +2.0% comp in the quarter and also said it plans to pilot a delivery subscription program later this year.
Li & Fung (Hong Kong) has expanded its licensing agreement with Vera Bradley from soft home into apparel and is planning a holiday 2026 launch, with a focus on tops and outerwear, available across channels including full-price department stores, specialty retail, off-price and clubs, as well as across Vera Bradley's stores and e-commerce, with full-price retails ranging from $88 to $298.
AI-powered personalized shopping platform Phia has raised $35.5M in an oversubscribed Series A from an investor group that included celebrities, e.g. Jessica Alba and Paris Hilton, and technology investors, and has now raised $43.5M in total funding.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Timberland, which is part of VF Corp, has opened its 14th store in the Greater NYC/NJ area, at American Dream in East Rutherford, NJ, part of VF's plan to open 20 new Timberland stores in its FY27, which ends in March 2027.
Hy-Vee, which is based in Iowa and has 240+ retail stores across the Midwest, is selling 21 Fast & Fresh c-stores, including 18 in Iowa, two in Nebraska and one in Minnesota, to NE-based Pump & Pantry for an undisclosed amt and will have 168 c-stores after the sale is completed in July.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Walmart Canada COO since January 2025 and former 30+ year Sam's Club veteran Steve Schrobilgen has returned to Sam's as COO to succeed retiring Tom Ward, While Sam's Club Chief Experience Officer and long-time Walmart exec Diana Marshal is leaving at the end of June.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.15 on average across the US for the week ended 6/8/26, down $0.16 from the prior week but up $1.04 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.21, down $0.14 on the week but up $1.74 from last year.
- Fuel prices are being driven up by supply constraints related to the war in Iran.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas at $4+ is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Out at 10:00 am, Existing Home Sales for May were better than expected and increased 3% m/m to an annualized 4.17M vs. the Street's 4.07M estimate, while sales also grew 3% on a year-over-year basis compared to May 2025, and the median selling price was $429,300, up 1% y/y.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The housing market is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates opt to remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Out Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls for May were much stronger than expected at +172K vs. the Street's +105K estimate and follow an upwardly-revised (by a significant amount) +179K in April, while Unemployment was unchanged in May at 4.3%, as expected, and Avg Hourly Earnings grew 3.4% y/y, down from +3.6% in April and reflecting a continued slower y/y growth trend.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
We're not seeing any upgrades/downgrades or otherwise actionable calls this morning...
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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