Thursday, July 30, 2026

Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: 2Q26 earnings season looking more mixed than the first quarter, Reformation IPO prices at the low-end of the targeted range, Whatnot looking to raise new capital at a $20B valuation, Babylist hires RENT co-founder as CEO in front of possible IPO...

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DoR Consumer Research

Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer

Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET

Earnings Season Turns More Mixed, Reformation IPO Prices at Low-End of Range, Whatnot...

THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR

UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern

Monday (7/27) 

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
  • Walmart doing investor meetings in NYC, hosted by KeyBanc
  • LVMH reports 2Q26, call at noon, Street at sales of EUR19.38B, down slightly y/y

Tuesday (7/28)

  • Consumer Confidence for July at 10:00 am, Street at 92.1 vs. prior 91.2
  • Kering reports 2Q26, call at noon, Street at sales of EUR3.63B, down 2% y/y

Wednesday (7/29)

  • Hermes reports 2Q26, call 3:00 am ET, Street at sales of EUR4.06B, up 4% y/y
  • VF Corporation reports 1Q27, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.64B/($0.22)
  • Retail Marketing Society monthly webinar at noon, topic is Gen Z and Gen Alpha spending trends, DoRCR will open the event with a brief macro/consumer update, info here
  • FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm, investors expect no change in the 3.50%-3.75% target
  • O'Reilly reports 2Q26 after the close, Street at comps up 5.4%, EPS of $0.86
  • Boot Barn reports 1Q27, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 3.5%, EPS of $1.69
  • Sprouts reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps down 1.0%, EPS of $1.34
  • Ethan Allen reports 4Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $148.7M/$0.34

Thursday (7/30)

  • Jobless Claims for the week ended 7/25/26 at 8:30 am, no Street estimate yet, prior 187K
  • Personal Income/Spend for June 8:30 am, Street +0.4%/+0.5% m/m, prior +0.7%/+0.7%
  • Gildan Activewear reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.61B/$1.12
  • Crocs reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.15B/$4.35
  • Steven Madden reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $635.4M/$0.32
  • Canada Goose reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of C$108.4M/(C$0.99)
  • Adidas reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of EUR6.60B/EUR2.39
  • O'Reilly 2Q26 call at 11:00 am
  • Reformation IPO after the close, NYSE, ticker REF, 14.1M shares at $15-$17 per share
  • Amazon reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $197.04B/$1.82
  • Floor & Decor reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps down 3.6%, EPS of $0.57
  • Columbia reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $607.0M/($0.39)

Friday (7/31)

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
  • U. Mich. Sentiment for July (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 54.4 vs. prior 54.4

**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**

TODAY'S EARLY TRADING

The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 2.0% as of ~11:15 am vs. a 0.8% gain in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are underperforming as retail 2Q26 earnings season turns a bit more mixed and as Reformation prices its IPO at the low-end of a targeted $15-17 per share range.

  • Weaker retail stocks include CROX, down 11% after results, PRPL (down 6%), CURV (down 5%), SFIX (down 5%, insider selling) and UAA (down 5%), while Adidas's stock, which trades in Frankfurt, is down 14% despite a strong 2Q26, release here.
  • Stronger retail stocks include FOSL, which is up 16% on no news as far as we can tell, also volatile DBGI (up 15%), SFM (up 12%, results and an analyst upgrade), AMZN (up 5% in front of results this afternoon) and SHOO (up 4% on strong quarterly results).

MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS

All Stock Prices as of Last Close

O'Reilly (ORLY, $90.63) had an upside/in-line 2Q26 (June) and comped up 6.0% on top of +4.1% last year, while total sales growth of 8% y/y, flat gross and op margins, and a 3% reduction in shares outstanding on continued stock buybacks drove a 10% increase in EPS, to $0.86, and mgmt bumped up full-year comp guidance by a ppt, reaffirmed margins, and raised the EPS range by $0.05.

  • The +6.0% comp was slightly ahead of the Street's +5.4% and puts the two-year stack at +10.1%, a slight sequential deceleration from +11.7% in the first quarter but still indicative of meaningful market share gains, while total sales increased 8% to $4.89B.
  • Comps were driven by growth in both professional and DIY in the quarter, while total sales were driven by the comp and the opening of 110 net new stores 2026 YTD.
  • O'Reilly is still planning to open a net 225-235 stores this year on a base of 6,585 stores.
  • EPS were $0.86 vs. $0.78 last year and the Street's $0.86 estimate and incorporated a flat gross margin of 51.4% and a flat operating margin of 20.2%.
  • Inventories look fine/good and were up 11% y/y, slightly above the +8% sales growth.
  • 2026 guidance includes comps of +4%-6% vs. a prior +3%-5%, revs of $18.9B-$19.2B vs. a prior $18.7B-$19.0B and $17.78B last year, an operating margin of 19.3%-19.8% vs. 17.9% in 2025 and same as before and EPS of $3.20-$3.30 vs. $2.97 in 2025 and a prior $3.15-$3.25.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: O'Reilly executes very well, has very good service and leading parts availability, and is gaining nice share in a resilient and tariff-resistant industry, and management is focused on reducing expenses but will also sacrifice some profit in order to maintain high levels of customer service at the stores and to preserve ORLY's leading parts availability.

Gildan (GIL, $51.25) had a mixed 2Q26 (June), its second full quarter of contribution from the acquired HanesBrands business, though pro forma sales for the combined business declined y/y on "proactive inventory reduction(s)" related to the integration process, while adjusted op margin decreased y/y on HanesBrands' higher SG&A; mgmt guided full-year revs to the low-end of a prior range but raised op margin by 80 bps and the adjusted EPS range by a fair bit.

  • Gildan also announced the sale of its HanesBrands Australian Business to BBFIT Investments for an EV of ~US$490M, said the deal will close in 2H26, and noted proceeds will be used to pay down a portion of its debt and accelerate a return to its target leverage.
  • Reported sales increased 72% y/y to $1.58B vs. the Street's $1.61B estimate, while sales decreased 8% on a pro-forma basis on the proactive inventory reductions, which have temporarily reduced sell-in, and the cycling of some pre-buying actions in 2Q25.
  • Management also noted some "broader market softness" late-quarter in Retail.
  • Adjusted EPS from continuing ops were $1.28 vs. $0.97 last year and the Street's $1.12 estimate and incorporated an operating margin of 22.3%, down 40 bps from last year.
  • For the year, total revs are now expected to be at the low-end of a prior $6.0B-$6.2B range, while adjusted EPS are expected at $4.65-$4.75, up 33%-35% y/y and incorporating $220M in IEEPA tariff refunds, with most of the recovery expected to occur in the third quarter.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The HanesBrands acquisition is transformative for Gildan as it essentially doubles the revenue base and should create substantial platform synergies and efficiencies, and the sale of HanesBrands Australia should help with balance sheet de-leverage -- target is 1.5x-2.5x net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA -- and will allow for greater focus on core ops.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM, $79.16) had a soft 2Q26 (June) with in-line comps down 1.0% and upside EPS of $1.37 vs. $1.35 last year and called out "a cautious consumer environment," strong new store performance, and ongoing success in "foraging and innovation," and mgmt narrowed full-year comps, bumped up sales, and trimmed the high-ends of EBIT and EPS ranges.

  • The (1.0%) comp is a sequential improvement from the first quarter's (1.7%) against a somewhat easier, but still very difficult, year-ago comparison of +10.2%, while total sales grew 5% y/y to $2.33B on an 8% y/y increase in units, to 490 stores in 25 states.
  • 2026 guidance includes comps of (0.5%)-0.5% vs. a prior (1%)-1%, total sales growth of 5.5%-6.5% on top of $8.81B last year, and EPS of $5.32-$5.40 vs. $5.31 in 2025 and vs. a prior $5.32-$5.48 and still including an estimated $0.21 from a 53rd week.
  • Sprouts is planning to open 42 net new stores this year, implies 9% unit growth, part of a plan announced last year to open 75+ stores over two years.
  • Full-year sales guidance still assumes an add'l $200M of sales from the extra week.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Sprouts is still a good story overall, well positioned in the growing market for healthy and organic foods and with plenty of store growth potential given its relatively small size, but there has been some underlying moderation that is raising concerns about heightened competition with Whole Foods (and Amazon) as Amazon ups its investments in fresh food.

Crocs (CROX, $133.52) had a better-than-expected 2Q26 (June) and called out broad demand across both brands, good DTC growth, and strong consumer interest in new product innovation, and management bumped up full-year revenue guidance, raised the EPS range, and announced a $1.5B increase in the share repurchase authorization, to $2B, or 30% of the market cap.

  • Consolidated revs were $1.18B, up 2% y/y constant currency and slightly above the Street's $1.15B estimate, with DTC revs up 11% y/y and Wholesale revs down 8%.
  • Crocs Brand revs were $1.0B, up 4% y/y, and included DTC revs up 12%, Wholesale revs down 5%, North America revs up slightly, and International revs up 7%.
  • HEYDUDE revs were $179M, down 6%, with DTC up 7% and Wholesale down 17%.
  • Adjusted EPS increased 8% to $4.55 vs. the Street's $4.35 and incorporated 170 bps of gross margin deterioration and 20 bps of SG&A expense de-leverage.
  • Ending inventories were down 4% y/y after being up 2% in the first quarter.
  • Full-year guidance includes revs up 1%-2% from last year's $4.04B vs. a prior down 1% to up 1%, modest expansion in operating margin from 2025's 22.3%, same as before, and adjusted EPS of $13.70-$14.00 vs. $12.51 last year and a prior $13.20-$13.75.
  • Full-year guidance assumes Crocs Brand revs up 2%-3% after a slight increase in 2025 and HEYDUDE revs down 2%-4% on top of a 14% drop in 2025, all constant currency.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: CROX shares had rallied 50%+ since the beginning of the year as performance has been exceeding low expectations, but there are still some notable negatives to the story, including ongoing wholesale weakness at both brands, margin pressures, the potential for only modest growth at Crocs in 2026, and ongoing declines on declines at HEYDUDE.

Boot Barn (BOOT, $150.89) had a better-than-expected 1Q27 (June) and comped up 4.7% after +6.1% in the fourth quarter, while the 2-year comp of +14.1% accelerated from 4Q26's +12.1% and reflected broad-based strength across merchandise categories, geographies, etc., while EPS were well ahead of expectations, even adjusting for a tariff refund benefit, and mgmt maintained full-year comp guidance while noting a slower trend in July, and raised EPS to reflect tariff refunds.

  • Comps increased 4.7% on top of +9.4% last year and were modestly above the Street's +3.5% estimate, while total sales grew 18% to $593.5M on the comp and a 20% y/y increase in the store count, to 566, including 27 store openings in the first quarter.
  • Growth was broad-based across merch categories, channels and regions in the quarter.
  • Retail same-store sales increased 3.8%, and e-comm comps increased 13.4%, and by month, consolidated comps grew 5.0%/3.4%/5.4% in April/May/June.
  • EPS were $2.29 vs. $1.74 last year and the Street's $1.69 and would have been $1.91 absent a $0.38 per share benefit from tariff refunds, added 250 bps to merchandise margin.
  • Inventories look good and were up 1% y/y on a same-store basis at quarter's end.
  • FY27 guidance still includes comps of +2%-4% and sales up 14%-16%, to $2.58B-$2.63B, while EPS are now expected at $8.80-$9.23 vs. $7.35 in FY26 and a prior $8.21-$8.64.
  • Second quarter guidance includes comps of flat to up 2% against a +8.4% comparison and reflects flattish comps for the month of July, first month of the quarter.
  • Full-year guidance still assumes 70 new stores, which implies mid-teens % y/y growth.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The continued strong comp growth on top of tough comparisons is a key positive, as are the broad-based sales performance in the quarter and BOOT's substantial store growth opportunity, and while the slower July trend is likely to raise some eyebrows, July is a lower-volume month and can be impacted by summer seasonal events and concerts.

Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:

  • Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM, $79.16) JPM upgrades from Neutral to Overweight

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

Reformation (REF, $15.00) priced 14.1M shares at the low-end of a $15-$17 range in its IPO and raised gross proceeds of just over $210M at an initial equity valuation of $886M, and UK-based private equity firm Permira is expected to beneficially own 49% of the stock after the offering.

  • The IPO -- on the New York Stock Exchange -- was led by JPM and Morgan Stanley.
  • Mgmt plans to use part of the IPO proceeds to pay down debt and reduce leverage.
  • Revs were $507M last year, up from $360M in 2023, and profit was $12.6M.
  • Reformation has 70 stores globally and plans to double stores in the years ahead.

eBay (EBAY, $115.30) has completed its previously announced acquisition of Depop from Etsy (ETSY, $85.58) and plans to operate the fashion resale marketplace as a complementary business, keeping the brand, platform, customer experience and culture intact, and also says the transaction expands its reach with Gen Z and Millennial consumers and notes it (eBay) is doing $10B+ in annual GMV in fashion and continues to experience momentum in the category.

  • The final consideration was $1.4B in cash, including a $1.2B purchase price, as previously announced, and $200M of net purchase price adjustments and interest.
  • Etsy plans to use the proceeds for corp purposes, including accelerated stock buybacks.

Steven Madden (SHOO, $43.40) had a strong and better-than-expected 2Q26 (June) with revs up 19% to $665.9M vs. the Street's $635.4M estimate, significant gross margin expansion on higher average selling prices, a smaller impact from tariffs, lower private label penetration, and reduced promotional activity, and adjusted EPS of $0.44 vs. $0.20 last year and the Street's $0.32 estimate, and management raised full-year revenue and earnings guidance.

  • The Steve Madden brand did particularly well in the quarter and was driven by "trend-right assortments" and "brand heat," which drove both DTC and wholesale.

Canada Goose (GOOS, $9.25) had a better-than-expected 1Q27 (June) with revs of C$118.9M, up 9% y/y on a constant-currency basis, and adjusted EPS of (C$0.89) vs. (C$0.91) last year, though DTC comps fell 3.2% on lower store comps, partially offset by double-digit e-comm growth.

  • Mgmt reaffirmed full-year guidance for a low-single-digit increase in revs from FY26's C$1.53B and for an adjusted EBIT margin of 11%-12% vs. 9.7% in FY26.
  • Mgmt also said Canada Goose continues to expand year-round relevance with its Apparel, Rainwear and Windwear collections, which are becoming a bigger % of total revs.

Ethan Allen (ETD, $23.59) had a tough and mixed 4Q26 (June) with a small sales miss -- $146.8M, down 8.5% y/y and below the Street's $148.7M estimate -- and better-than-expected adjusted EPS of $0.36 vs. $0.49 last year and the Street's $0.34 estimate.

  • GAAP EPS were $0.46 vs. $0.48 last year and included a 340 bps benefit to both gross margin and operating margin from the recovery of $5.0M of previously paid IEEPA tariffs.
  • Ethan Allen also announced a special cash dividend of $0.25/share, payable 8/26/26.
  • Retail segment written orders fell 11% y/y, and wholesale written orders fell 12%.
  • Headwinds in the quarter included a reduction in business with the State Dept and "sluggish (consumer) demand" for furniture, also lower store traffic and macro uncertainty.

VF Corporation said yesterday during the 1Q27 (June) call its Altra Running shoe brand could be a $1B+ brand over time and noted strong performance in franchise styles including Lone Peak, Torin, Experience Flow and Experience Wild as consumer awareness of the brand builds.
Academy Sports has launched a retail media network, called Academy Retail Media, and says several national brands are already running marketing campaigns on the platform.
Mammut, a Swiss outdoor brand, is being sold by Jacobs Capital to CPE (China) for an undisclosed amt acc'd to a press release that also notes Mammut has grown significantly since Jacobs took ownership in 2021 and restructured the biz and now does half its sales outside Europe.
Quince (San Francisco, online retailer of luxury essentials) has done $2B in sales over the last 12 months acc'd to today's WWD, which notes Quince did $1B+ in revs for all of 2025 and says the business has grown by a triple-digit annual rate since its founding in 2018.
TSG Consumer (private equity) has signed a definitive agreement to acquire a majority stake in Los Angeles-based body care brand Saltair for an undisclosed amount acc'd to WWD, which says the brand's sales are expected to be in the area of $150M for the full-year 2026 and notes Prelude Growth Partners will exit its position in Saltair after the transaction is completed.

Live-shopping company Whatnot is looking to raise new capital at a $20B valuation acc'd to Business Insider, which notes the $20B is nearly double Whatnot's $11.5B valuation after a $225B Series F funding round co-led by DST Global and CapitalG in late-2025.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Scottsdale Quarter (AZ) announced two new tenants, L'Agence (Los Angeles, women's fashion), which plans to open a 2,400 sf store, and digitally-native Hill House Home (women's fashion + baby/children's apparel), which will open a 2,250 sf store in the open-air center.
IKEA (Sweden), which has 60+ US stores and is planning to open seven US stores through early next year, is opening a new 80K sf store at Crocker Park in Westlake, OH, west of Cleveland.
L.L.Bean will soon open a 15K sf store in West Omaha, NE, at Avenue One, and is also planning a return to Kansas City with a new store at Bluhawk, expected to open next summer.

MANAGEMENT UPDATES

Babylist (registry+, online retail, one store) has hired Co-Founder and former Rent the Runway CEO -- until a few months ago -- Jennifer Hyman as CEO, starts 9/9/26 and will succeed founder Natalie Gordon, who has led Babylist since its founding in 2011 and will transition to Executive Chair.

  • Recall Bloomberg said in March 2026 Babylist was approaching $1B in annual sales -- after $750M+ in 2025 -- and is considering an initial public offering in 2027.
  • Babylist is also planning to open a second physical store in September, in NYC (SoHo).

MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT

Out at 8:30 am, Jobless Claims for the week ended 7/25/26 were lower than expected at 197K and up 9K from a revised 188K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag and indicate how long it's taking those out of work to find jobs, declined slightly, to 1.78M.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.

Also out at 8:30 am, Personal Income for June was slightly below expectations at +0.2% m/m vs. the Street's +0.4% estimate and after +0.7% in May, while Personal Spending was slightly below expectations at +0.3% vs. the Street's +0.5% estimate and after a revised +0.9% in May.

  • The Personal Savings rate declined to 2.7% in June, the lowest in four years.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Consumer spending grew by a 3.2% annual rate in the second quarter, a significant acceleration from +0.5% in 1Q26, driven in part by tax refunds/cuts, wage growth, and, to some extent, stock market gains, also some tapping of personal savings.

Out Tuesday, Consumer Confidence for July was weaker than expected at 90.8 vs. the Street's 92.1 estimate and down from a revised 92.2 in June as consumers' assessment of current business conditions and the current labor market deteriorated a bit amid concerns about high fuel prices and continued concerns about the cumulative impact of inflation in food and grocery.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Weak confidence hasn't kept consumers from spending, so it's best not to read too much into this indicator, or into U. Mich. Sentiment, but for what it's worth, all five of the U. Mich. index components improved in early-July, and the rise was demographically broad-based.

Personal Savings as a % of Disposable Personal Income

ZeroHedge

SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM, $79.16) JPM upgrades from Neutral to Overweight and raises its target from $80 to $103 after the 2Q26 (June) results, sees a "positive inflection point" in the business and expects this to drive a re-rating of the stock higher, notes the mid-point of 3Q26 guidance implies positive comps despite negative impacts from Cyclospora and a tough consumer environment, also notes unit growth is accelerating, while new store productivity is strong.

Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here

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