Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Bassett Furniture's better trend may be a broader indicator, Dollar Tree replenishes buyback to $2.5B after $500M repurchase, American Eagle and Zumiez announce CFO changes, latest Nonfarm Payrolls don't look great, but labor mkt is still solid...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Thursday, July 2, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Bassett's Better Trend, Dollar Tree Replenishes Buyback, CFO News at AEO and ZUMZ...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/29)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/30)
- Consumer Confidence for June at 10:00 am, Street at 94.4 vs. prior 93.1
- Nike reports 4Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $10.85B/$0.12
Wednesday (7/1)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
- ADP Employment for June at 8:15 am, Street at +92.5K vs. prior +122K
- Bassett Furniture reports 2Q26 after the close, no Street estimates
Thursday (7/2)
- Nonfarm Payrolls for June at 8:30 am, Street at +100K vs. prior +172K, Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings +3.5% y/y vs. prior +3.4%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/27/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 215K
- Bassett Furniture 2Q26 call at 9:00 am
Friday (7/3)
- Independence Day observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.5% as of ~10:50 am vs. a 0.2% gain in the S&P 500, which is higher as a weaker-than-expected employment report eases concerns about Fed rate hikes.
- Weaker retail stocks include TLYS, LANV, CURV, REAL and SFIX, all down 5% or more.
- Stronger retail stocks include BSET, which is up 10% on quarterly results, also LE (up 5%), SFM (up 4%), DECK (up 4%) and WWW (up 3%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Consolidated revs decreased 1% y/y to $83.8M after a 2% decline in the first quarter, while total written sales increased 9.5%, with e-comm up 40%, and e-comm AOV up 24%, driven in part by ongoing improvements in website experience, navigation, customization.
- The Memorial Day event drove a 14% increase in written sales and 4% increase in traffic y/y.
- EBT was $2.8M, up slightly from $2.6M last year, and EPS were $0.24 vs. $0.22.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This isn't "market moving" per se since Bassett is a small player in the furniture/furnishings business with only 87 stores, in addition to its wholesale business and e-commerce ops, but the sequential improvement in trends is noteworthy and may be a positive indicator for the industry more broadly even with a "continued soft housing market."
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- On Holding (ONON, $35.56) JPM adds the stock to its "Positive Catalyst Watch" list
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Dollar Tree (DLTR, $121.15) has replenished its stock buyback program to an aggregate of $2.5B, or nearly 11% of yesterday's closing market cap of $23.28B, follows the recent $500M repurchase of its stock as part of a 12.8M share block trade involving shareholder Mantle Ridge that left $700M remaining for repurchase under Dollar Tree's existing $2.5B authorization.
Genesco (GCO, $33.90) activist shareholder the Radoff-Jumana Group, which now owns 9.1% of outstanding GCO shares, up from 8.7% a couple days ago, is ramping up its campaign for board change and calling for director since 2013 Joanna Barsh to resign immediately b/c of what it says are false claims in the company's proxy statement related to Barsh's leadership experience.
- Radoff-Jumana also says it will withdraw its proxy contest if Barsh and Thurgood Marshall resign from the board and one of its two candidates is appointed, press release here.
Dick's Sporting Goods has added a new $99/yr paid membership tier to its ScoreCard Loyalty Program, called ScoreCard+ and includes unlimited standard shipping on all purchases, $100 in guaranteed Rewards each year, one service or experience each year, an everyday 20% discount on in-store services/experience, other benefits, and also enhanced its free program, more here.
- Dick's loyalty program has 30M+ members who account for 75% of total sales.
UK-based online homewares/furniture retailer DUSK is going public on the LSE later this year and has selected Panmure Liberum and Zeus to manage the IPO acc'd to Sky News, which expects the company to be valued at GBP300M following the offering. DUSK was founded in 2017, has lower price points than omnichannel competitors, and has been growing rapidly without raising external capital. Revs for the 12 months ended March 2026 were GBP195M, up nearly 30% y/y.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Whole Foods (550+ stores globally) confirmed plans to open another store in the Dallas market, at a new mixed-use community at Shivers Farm in Southlake that is being developed by Trademark Property and will have ~110K sf of retail space, as well as boutique office space, single-family lots and a large parcel that has been approved for a hotel, entertainment venue, etc.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
American Eagle CFO since 2020 and longtime company finance and operations exec Mike Mathias is transitioning to a full-time strategic advisor -- to American Eagle CEO Jay Schottenstein -- position at the beginning of August and will be succeeded by Papa John's CFO and President of North America since November 2025 and former Nike and ANN INC. finance/ops exec Ravi Thanawala.
- American Eagle also reaffirmed 2Q26 (July) and FY26 guidance given in late-May.
- 2Q26 guidance includes a mid- to high-single-digit % increase in comparable sales and operating income of $45M-$50M vs. $103.1M in last year's second quarter.
Zumiez CFO since 2012 and Controller for the prior five years Chris Work is stepping down as CFO and will continue to fulfill CFO responsibilities and assist with the transition until a new CFO is identified and appointed; Zumiez has engaged a leading executive search firm to assist.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 8:30 am, Nonfarm Payrolls for June were below expectations but still solid at +57K vs. the Street's +100K and after a downwardly revised +129K in May, while Unemployment declined slightly, to 4.2%, and Avg Hourly Earnings grew an in-line +3.5% y/y after +3.4% in May.
- The decline in Unemployment is largely due to a lower labor force participation rate.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The optics don't look great, but when combined with other labor market indicators, including continued low Jobless Claims, a better-than-expected private employment for June report, and a steady number of job openings -- 7.6M per JOLTS -- the picture is still one of relatively steady monthly gains and an underlying improving trend vs. last year.
Also out at 8:30 am, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/27/26 were lower than expected at 215K vs. the Street's 225K estimate and essentially unchanged from the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, were 1.81M and also essentially unchanged.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out yesterday, ADP Employment for June was slightly better than expected at +98K vs. the Street's +92.5K estimate and a modest slowdown from May's +122K, while pay for those who stayed with their jobs was steady at +4.4% y/y and accelerated to +6.6% for those who changed jobs.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out Wednesday, Consumer Confidence for June was weaker than expected at 91.2 vs. the Street's 94.4 but increased slightly from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May, with the slight improvement in large part reflecting the recent decline in fuel prices and easing inflation concerns.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Depressed sentiment does not appear to be holding consumers back based on the latest Retail Sales and what appears to have been a strong Prime Day(s) event last week.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Levi Strauss (LEVI, $24.50) JPM maintains its Overweight rating and raises its target from $30 to $32, says last night's FIFA World Cup match between the US and Bosnia and Herzegovina was Levi's biggest viral marketing moment yet as the company turned FIFA stadium branding restrictions into an opportunity to do some "guerilla marketing" and turn the match into a global branding event, also raises its 2Q26 (May) EPS estimate to $0.26 vs. the Street's $0.24.
On Holding (ONON, $35.56) JPM resumes coverage with an Overweight rating and $51 target and adds the stock to its "Positive Catalyst Watch" list, sees upside potential in 2Q26 (June), expects solid underlying momentum to continue, and views risk/reward in the stock as more attractive now following a protracted period of weakness -- down 24% YTD and 34% over the last 12 months.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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