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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
On's 2Q26 Sales Miss, US Mall Traffic Grows Across Formats in July, Gas Prices Ease a Bit...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (8/10)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- Citi Trends at the virtual D.A. Davidson 2026 Small Cap Conference, time not specified
- Purple Innovation reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $104.4M/($2.18)
Tuesday (8/11)
- On Holding reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of CHF878.40M/CHF0.34
- Existing Home Sales for July at 10:00 am, Street at 4.05M SAAR vs. prior 4.09M
- Sally Beauty at the Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference at 10:00 am
Wednesday (8/12)
- Warby Parker doing meetings in Minneapolis/Chicago today/tomorrow, hosted by BTIG
- Consumer Price Index for July at 8:30 am, Street at +3.4% y/y vs. prior +3.5%
- Kontoor Brands reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $587.0M/$1.05
- DoRCR hosts its monthly Retail & Consumer webinar at 2:00 pm, link to join here, will cover macro/consumer + topical issues, including thoughts on the 2026 back-to-school season
- Grocery Outlet reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps down 1.5%, EPS of $0.13
- Fossil reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $199.3M/($0.36)
- Lulu's Fashion Lounge reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, no Street estimates
Thursday (8/13)
- Tapestry reports 4Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.87B/$1.28
- Birkenstock reports 3Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of EUR715.0M/EUR0.76
- YETI reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $483.8M/$0.54
- Producer Price Index for July at 8:30 am, Street at +4.9% y/y vs. prior +5.5%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/8/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 205K vs. prior 199K
- Wolverine Worldwide reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $500.7M/$0.38
- Yesway reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 2.0%, EPS of $0.47
Friday (8/14)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- Retail Sales for July at 8:30 am, Street at +0.1% m/m vs. prior +0.2%
- U. Mich. Sentiment for August (preliminary) at 10:00 am, Street at 54.5 vs. prior 55.2
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.4% as of ~10:35 am vs. a slight rise in the S&P 500.
- Weaker retail stocks include PRPL, which is down 23% after a miss/guide-down, ONON (down 19%), UAA (down 8%, analyst downgrade), AS (down 5%) and JD (down 5%).
- Stronger retail stocks include ARHS, WOOF, TSCO, NEGG and LVLU, all up 3%-6%.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
On Holding (ONON, $38.78) had a very good 2Q26 (June) but missed Street sales expectations with constant-currency growth of 22% to CHF850.3M after 26% growth in the first quarter as it managed wholesale sell-in in front of upcoming product launches, while adjusted EBITDA also fell a bit shy of expectations, and mgmt largely maintained full-year sales guidance and raised gross margin.
- Sales of CHF850.3M were light of the Street's CHF878.4M and incorporated 34% constant-currency growth in DTC, to CHF388.4M, and 13% growth in wholesale, to CHF461.9M.
- Constant-currency sales grew 21% in EMEA, 13% in the Americas -- a modest deceleration from +17% in the first quarter -- and 55% in Asia-Pacific.
- Sales of shoes grew 19%, apparel grew 56%, and accessories grew 100%+ from 2Q25.
- Adjusted EBITDA increased 24% y/y to CHF168.1M vs. the Street's CHF171.6M estimate and incorporated 390 bps of gross margin improvement on growth in higher-margin DTC, which drove 46% of total sales in the quarter, up from 41% in last year's second quarter.
- Other gross margin drivers included operational efficiencies and full-price discipline, while partial offsets included the full absorption of US import tariffs.
- 2026 guidance: Constant-currency sales growth in the low-20% range to CHF3.47B-CHF3.56B vs. prior guidance of at least 23% growth, to CHF3.51B, a gross margin of at least 65.0%, up 50 bps from before, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5%-20.0%, same as before.
- Guidance excludes potential benefits from tariff recovery in the back half of the year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: These are certainly good numbers, but the stock is taking a big hit on the sequential slowing in sales as investors don't seem to be fully buying into management's explanation for the softer wholesale performance; that said, On is still a very attractive growth story in the global athletic space and has low-but-building brand awareness of 30% and a customer that skews younger -- <34s are a third of the base -- and has more lifetime value.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Best Buy (BBY, $82.43) Truist upgrades from Hold to Buy
- Gap (GAP, $21.51) Barclays downgrades from Overweight to Equal Weight
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $118.53) Barclays upgrades from Underweight to Equal Weight
- Under Armour (UAA, $5.87) Barclays downgrades from Equal Weight to Underweight
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
US mall traffic continued to grow across all formats in July acc'd to the latest data from Placer.ai, which put traffic to indoor malls up 4.3%, to open-air centers up 5.1%, and to outlet malls up 0.5%, and also noted an increase in dwell time across all formats in July after five down months.
- It was the third straight month of y/y growth across all three mall formats.
- Placer.ai called the slight y/y increase in traffic to outlet malls "notable" when considering the format's "slightly more modest audience profile and still-elevated gas prices."
Sales of beauty products grew nicely in the first half of the year in both the prestige and mass channels acc'd to the latest industry data from Circana, which has hair care as the top-performing category in prestige, up 11%, and puts fragrance as the top category in mass, up 15%.
- Elsewhere in prestige, sales of skin care products grew 9% y/y for the January-June period, while sales of fragrances increased 6%, and sales of makeup increased 3%.
- In mass, sales of hair care products increased 7% y/y for the first six months of the year, while sales of skin care grew 8%, and sales of makeup grew 5%.
Source: Placer.ai
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Purple Innovation (PRPL, $9.10) reported a weak overall 2Q26 (June) as revs fell 7% y/y to $98.3M vs. the Street's $104.4M estimate and were negatively impacted by "challenging" bedding industry conditions, which contributed to a 19% drop in wholesale revs, to $37.4M, which more than offset a 3% increase in DTC revs on strong growth in showroom revs, up 17% y/y.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $2.1M vs. ($2.4M) last year and the Street's $2.6M estimate.
- Mgmt lowered full-year revenue guidance again, to reflect "continued softness," especially in wholesale, and now expects $420M-$440M vs. $468.7M in 2025.
- Purple regained compliance with Nasdaq min bid rules after a 1:25 reverse stock split.
Alo has launched online in China, exclusively on Tmall acc'd to WWD, which says the assortment spans 300+ products and notes Alo's first freestanding store in China will open later this year, at the K11 mall in Hong Kong, while stores are also planned for Shanghai and Shenzhen.
- CA-based competitor Vuori has opened eight stores in China over the past two years and is planning to have 20 stores in the country by the end of 2027.
- And Anta-owned Maia Active currently has 50+ stores across China.
SHEIN's IPO bankers are pitching a sub-$30B valuation to potential investors in the upcoming Hong Kong offering acc'd to the Financial Times, which notes this is dramatically below the company's $100B+ valuation following a private fundraising round in 2022. And Bloomberg is putting SHEIN's IPO valuation even lower, at $22B-$25B based on 13x-15x the company's projected 2027 earnings and reflecting slowing growth amid tariff pressures.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Best Buy Chief Marketing Officer since 2023 and company marketing exec for the past 13 years Jennie Weber has been replaced by Chief Creative Officer since January 2026 and former Carmichael Lynch Chief Creative Officer and 20+ year creative exec Marty Senn.
Signet Jewelers has hired Mattel Global Head of Dolls since September 2025, American Girl (owned by Mattel) President since May 2019, and former Iconix Brand Group Chief Marketing Officer Jamie Cygielman as President of Zales and Banter, starts in two weeks, and also hired Tiffany Chief Merchandising Officer from 2007-2020 Pam Cloud as President of Blue Nile, started yesterday.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.01 on average across the US for the week ended 8/10/26, down $0.07 from the prior week but up $0.89 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.26, down $0.09 on the week but up $1.50 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices could come down quickly with a US/Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but for now, the significant y/y increase is a meaningful headwind to discretionary spending, esp by lower-income consumers (e.g. core dollar store customer).
Out at 10:00 am, Existing Home Sales for July were essentially in line with expectations and declined 2% m/m to an annualized rate of 4.06M, while Existing Home Sales increased 1% on a year-over-year basis, and the median sales price of an existing home grew 2% y/y, to $434,100.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: High mortgage rates -- the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.5% in July -- continue to suppress housing turnover, but there are signs of life in some areas of retail more dependent on home sales, including furniture, based on recent reports from Wayfair, which grew US revs by 9% in the second quarter, and Arhaus, which grew comp written sales by 12.5%.
Out Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls for July were much weaker than expected and fell 23K vs. the Street's +95K estimate after a downwardly revised +20K in June, while Unemployment declined slightly, to 4.1%, and Avg Hourly Earnings grew 3.2% y/y vs. expectations of +3.5%.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Probably best not to spin this -- it is worrisome -- but other labor market indicators including weekly Jobless Claims, JOLTS, even ADP to some extent, point to stability if not underlying strength, so it makes sense -- esp with all the revisions -- to give the Nonfarm data another month or two before drawing broad conclusions about a jobs + wage slowdown.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Best Buy (BBY, $82.43) Truist upgrades from Hold to Buy and raises its target from $81 to $95 in front of 2Q27 (July) results on 8/27/26, cites positive credit card reads and says ongoing replacement demand, internal initiatives including appliance delivery, and emerging product cycles are supporting improving sales trends and also sees the proliferation of AI as a long-term driver.
- Truist is forecasting +2.5% comps for the second quarter, above the Street's +1.0%.
Under Armour (UAA, $5.87) Barclays downgrades from Equal Weight to Underweight and maintains a $5 target after last week's 1Q27 (June) results, believes Under Armour's brand recovery is being delayed amid competitive and macro pressures and says it prefers retail and consumer brands with better pricing power and higher-returning models.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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