Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Quiet morning in front of more 2Q26 results, our latest Store Opening/Closing Analysis, another tough week for retail stocks, Walmart launching Tap to Pay and a new fashion brand, Mavis closes its $700M cash acquisition of Pep Boys...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Monday, August 24, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Quiet in Front of More Second Quarter Results, Our Latest Store Opening/Closing Analysis...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (8/24)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (8/25)
- Dick's Sporting Goods reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps/EPS of +4.0%/$3.76
- Citi Trends reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 10.5%, EPS of ($0.32)
- Consumer Confidence for August at 10:00 am, Street at 90.2 vs. prior 90.8
- New Home Sales for July at 10:00 am, Street at 612K SAAR vs. prior 628K
Wednesday (8/26)
- Personal Income/Spend for July at 8:30 am, St at +0.2%/+0.2% m/m, prior +0.3%/+0.2%
- Abercrombie & Fitch reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 0.8%, EPS of $1.99
- Bath & Body Works reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps/EPS of (3.9%)/$0.24
- Kohl's reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps down 0.6%, EPS of $0.58
- Williams-Sonoma reports 2Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at comps up 4.5%, EPS of $2.08
- Urban Outfitters reports 2Q27, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 5.8%, EPS of $1.72
Thursday (8/27)
- Dollar Tree reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 3.2%, EPS of $1.14
- Best Buy reports 2Q27 call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.3%, EPS of $1.38
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/22/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 208K vs. prior 206K
- Burlington reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 2.9%, EPS of $2.19
- Dollar General reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 2.6%, EPS of $2.01
- Build-A-Bear reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $120.8M/$0.65
- Ulta Beauty reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 2.3%, EPS of $6.21
- Gap reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 0.2%, EPS of $0.48
Friday (8/28)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- U. Mich. Sentiment for August (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 51.0 vs. prior 51.0
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 1.1% as of ~11:05 am vs. a 0.4% decline in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks include PRPL, LANV, NGVC, ETSY and AAP, all up 4%-5%.
- Weaker retail stocks include GOOS, which is down 6% on an analyst downgrade, also NXH (down 6%), RH (down 5%), CRI (down 3%) and AS (down 3%).
Last Week: The XRT fell 1.4% vs. a 1.4% decline in the S&P 500, which was hit by mixed second quarter results and guidance from the biggest US retailers and a rise in oil prices. Retail stocks underperformed on the mixed results, which included a comp miss by Walmart and TJX and upside from Target and Ross Stores. Other retail developments included a Sky News report saying Gordon Brothers is considering selling its Poundland UK business, Ethan Allen's announced $3 per share special cash dividend as if tries to fend off an activist investor looking to replace the board, and JD Group's (UK) disappointing trading update, which included a 6.8% drop in like-for-like sales across its North American business -- includes Hibbett. Also, Marquee Brands said it will lead a C$160M acquisition of Canada's Roots and work to expand it globally.
- Weaker retail stocks included DBGI, which fell 42% on ongoing viability concerns, AAP (down 25%, light 2Q26 comps), LZB (down 19%, weaker-than-expected results), PRPL (down 19%, may have been some sympathy with LZB) and RH (down 16%, same).
- Stronger retail stocks included ELF, which rose 11% on the week on no major news as far as we can tell, also DDS (up 11%, same), RENT (up 8%, same), CHWY (up 7%, same) and TGT (up 7% on a beat-and-raise 2Q26 + positive analyst commentary).
2026 Year-to-Date: The XRT is up 2.8% vs. a 12.1% gain in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks include LVLU, which is up 169%, also CURV (up 126%), TLYS (up 97%), DLTH (up 83%) and CTRN (up 73%).
- Weaker retail stocks include DBGI, which is down 98%, also PRPL (down 68%), ODD (down 67%), NEGG (down 64%) and TDUP (down 56%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Canada Goose (GOOS, $8.74) Wells Fargo downgrades from Overweight to Underweight
- Reformation (REF, $14.48) at least nine firms initiate coverage, all but one are Buy/equiv
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Walmart has launched Tap to Pay, otherwise known as contactless payment, at select Walmart stores and Sam's clubs, effective today, and plans to roll the payment option out to all U.S. stores and clubs by the end of this year and to all fuel stations by the middle of 2027.
- Walmart is a bit behind in this, as most retailers already accept Apple Pay, Google Pay...
Walmart is also launching a new women's apparel and accessories brand this week, called Scenario and will take space from its $2B Time and Tru brand acc'd to the WSJ, which says Scenario is aimed at younger, trendier shoppers, spans hundreds of items, is priced (mostly) sub-$25, and is part of an effort to reclaim fashion apparel share lost to Amazon over the past several years.
Mavis closed its previously announced acquisition of Pep Boys and paid ~$700M cash to Icahn Enterprises, which has retained the owned real estate that came along with its acquisition of Pep Boys in 2016 and also retained AAMCO Transmissions and Precision Tune Auto Care. Mavis now has a network of 4,400+ service centers across the US and Canada, including nearly 800 Pep Boys centers. Mavis is based in White Plains, NY and owned by BayPine Consumer Partners.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Loewe (Spain, luxury fashion, owned by LVMH) has opened its 21st US store and its first in the state of Arizona, 3,175 square feet, at Scottsdale Fashion Square in Scottsdale.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
SKIMS has promoted Creative Director since 2019 and former Yeezy, Victoria's Secret and Abercrombie design exec Kim Schraub to Chief Brand Officer, a new position, and hired Supreme Chief Creative Officer since 2024 Erin Magee as Chief Design Officer, also a new position.
Victoria's Secret has hired Foot Locker Chief Technology Officer from 2023 until this past spring and former Casey's and Dine Brands Chief Information Officer Adrian Butler as CTO.
STORE OPENING/CLOSING ANALYSIS
Significant YTD Announcements
So far this year, US retailers have announced plans to open/close ~4,195/~3,495 stores by our analysis, which covers all sectors except auto retail and excludes opening/closing announcements that were made in 2025 and prior but will carry over into 2026 and beyond.
The numbers this time last week were ~3,975/~3,485, and this time last year we tracked ~3,685/~4,490 YTD announced openings/closings.
For all of 2025, we tracked ~5,525 announced store openings, down 20% from 2024, and ~4,820 announced store closings, down 45% from 2024.
Note that openings/closings are specific numbers that have been announced, not completed, and could extend over several years.
Also note we include select non-US retailers (e.g. ALDI, POP MART, Lululemon) in our totals and small numbers of openings/closings if it's a significant development (e.g. digitally-native brands opening their first stores, highlighted below with an asterisk*), that we don't count concessions, pop-ups, seasonal stores, pilots, JV/partner-operated stores, acquired stores, or conversions, and that our closing tally excludes closings that are part of an ongoing business plan.
Latest Store Opening/Closing Announcements: TJX reported a mixed 2Q27 (July) last week and announced plans to accelerate store growth to 4% next year, which implies ~215 new stores on top of a previously announced ~146 net new stores for FY27, or a total of ~360 net new stores over two years, and also raised its longer-term store growth target from 7K to 7,500 stores.
Academy Sports + Outdoors said last week it has opened two new stores so far in its 3Q26 (Oct), in Clairsville, OH and Kerrville, TX, and plans to open nine more stores over the balance of the quarter, in Celina, TX, McAlester, OK, Lacy Lakeview, TX, Fayetteville, GA, Roanoke, VA, Statesboro, GA, Granbury, TX, Millington, TN, and Fairview, TX, all part of a previously announced plan to open ~125 new stores over five years.
Ross Stores reported a very strong second quarter last week and tweaked planned openings for the year up by five, to 115 new stores, including 90 Ross stores (up five) and 25 dd's (unchanged), and also said it now plans to close or relocate 5-10 stores vs. a prior range of 10-15 closings or relocations, and Advance Auto Parts reported a mixed 2Q26 and said it is now planning 30-35 store openings, down from a prior 40-45 range, and 15-20 market hub openings, up from a prior range of 10-15 new hubs.
Home Depot reported second quarter results and reaffirmed plans to open ~15 new stores this year, The Buckle reported results and essentially reaffirmed a prior plan to open 11-13 net new stores, and La-Z-Boy reported its 1Q27 (July) and reaffirmed plans for 10 new stores in its FY27.
Amer Sports reported an upside second quarter and reaffirmed plans to open 7-10 new Salomon stores in the Americas, MUJI, a Japanese lifestyle retailer with 13 US stores, mostly in NYC, announced plans to open four more US stores in Simon shopping centers across the Northeast, and Beyond Yoga, which is owned by Levi Strauss, opened its 16th store, 1,500 sf, at 324 Manhattan Beach Boulevard in Manhattan Beach, CA, and is planning to open #17 soon, in Scottsdale, AZ.
We didn't have any Beyond Yoga openings in our 2026 totals previously and now have three.
Latest Store Closing Announcements: Nike has "quietly" closed all 15 of its Nike Live hyper-localized format stores acc'd to Retail Dive, which notes the format launched in Los Angeles in 2018 as part of Nike's DTC push and says the stores were eventually rebranded to be called Nike Well Collective before being closed.
- Dollar Gen (~450 on ~20,900 note)
- Casey's (400+ on 2,900+ note)
- Dollar Tree (~400 on 9,282)
- TJX (~360 net on 5,200+ globally)
- O'Reilly (225-235 net on 6,585 note)
- 7-Eleven NA (200+ on 13K+)
- ALDI USA (180+ on 2,600+ note)
- Five Below (~150 net on 1,921)
- Yesway (130 on ~450)
- Academy Sports (~125 on 322 note)
- Ross Stores (115 on 1,900+)
- Burlington (115 net on 1,212)
- Kroger (105-120 on ~2,800)
- Goodwill (100+ on ~3,400)
- Whole Foods (100 on 550+)
- Sheetz (100 on 830+)
- Paymore (90+ on 100+)
- Tractor Supply (85-90 on 2,395 note)
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet (75 on 645)
- SKIMS* (73 on 27)
- Boot Barn (70 on 539)
- Citi Trends (~65 on 590+)
- Bath & Body Wks (60+ net on 2,500)
- CVS (~60 on ~9K note)
- Barnes & Noble (60 on 670)
- Tailored Brands (55+ on 1K+ note)
- Urban Outfitters (54 on 784 owned)
- Levi Strauss (50-60 net on 3,400+)
- Ulta Beauty (50-60 net on 1,591)
- Build-A-Bear (50+ net on 660+ note)
- Abercrombie (50 on 829 owned)
- Warby Parker* (50 net on 323)
- Fabletics* (45 on 135+)
- Perfumania (43 on 280+)
- Lululemon (40-45 net owned on 811)
- Crocs (40 on ~400 owned/operated)
- Aerie and OFFLINE (~40 on 330+)
- Dick's House of Sport (32 on 35 note)
- Grocery Outlet (30-33 net on 570)
- Target (30+ on ~2K note)
- Trader Joe's (30+ on 600+)
- Advance Auto (30-35 on 4,300+)
- Vuori* (30 on ~150)
- Birkenstock Amer (30 net on ~15)
- Ernesta* (26 on 4)
- Nordstrom Rack (25+ on ~300)
- Bealls (25 on 660+)
- Fleet Feet + Marathon (~25 on 310+)
- Genesco (23 on 1,236)
- Dick's Field House (22 on 42 note)
- POP MART US (20+ on 60+)
- Walmart U.S. (~20 on 4,600+ note)
- Love's Travel Stops (20 on ~670)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 on 512)
- Floor & Decor (20 on 270)
- Bob's Discount Furn (~20 on 209)
- Kendra Scott (20 on ~170 note)
- Consumer Cellular (20 on 100)
- HEYDUDE (~20 mostly outlets on 75)
- Cotopaxi* (20 on 20)
- Bu-cee's (17 announced on ~55)
- Advance Mega Hub (15-20 on 33)
- Home Depot (~15 on 2,359)
- Windsor (15 on ~350)
- Golf Galaxy (~15 on 113)
- IKEA US (~15 on 54)
- UNIQLO USA (14 on 78)
- a.k.a.'s Princess Polly* (14 on 13 US)
- Aritzia (12-13 mostly US on 144 total)
- Caleres (12 on ~820)
- Shoe Carnival/Station (11-15 on 426)
- The Buckle (11-13 net on 440)
- Garage (10-12 net on 300)
- Signet Jewelers (up to 10 on 2,582)
- Publix (~10 on 1,400+)
- La-Z-Boy (10 on 380 total N America)
- Cato (up to 10 on 1,070)
- Meijer (~10 on 500+)
- Indochino* (10 on 90+)
- Vivaia* (10 on 1)
- Lovesac (8 net on 278)
- Sukoshi (8 on 9 US)
- Salomon (7-10 on 2 US)
- BYLT* (7 on 15)
- Wayfair* (7 on 2 note)
- Haverty Furniture (6 net on 129)
- Big Y (6 on 77)
- RH (6 on 75)
- Purple (6 on 55)
- Zumiez (5 US on 716 total worldwide)
- Boll & Branch* (5 on 15)
- Kurt Geiger London (5 on 5 US)
- Arhaus (4-6 on 107)
- U.S. Polo Assn. (4 on 1,200+)
- Food Lion (4 on 1,100+)
- Best Buy (4 net US on 1K+ in NA)
- Tilly's (4 on 224)
- Ocean State Job Lot (4 on 175)
- Vera Bradley Outlet (4 on 87)
- True Religion (4 on 57)
- Chair King (4 on 52)
- MUJI USA (4 on 13)
- FIGS* (4 on 5)
- Ana Luisa* (4 on 2)
- Joybird* (3-4 on 16)
- Madewell (3 on ~150)
- Albertsons' Tom Thumb (3 on ~70)
- Brilliant Earth* (3 on 42)
- Suitsupply (3 US on ~40 US)
- Johnnie-O (3 on 23)
- Beyond Yoga* (2 on 14)
- COS US (3 on 12)
- Whole Foods Mkt Daily Shop (3 on 8)
- Brochu Walker (3 on 5)
- BRUNT Workwear (3 on 0)
- Bass Pro Shops (2 on 180+)
- Bassett Furniture (2 on 86)
- YETI (2 on 25+)
- FRAME (2 on 20+)
- The RealReal* (2 on 18)
- CardVault by Tom Brady (2 on 10)
- Yellow Rose Kendra Scott* (2 on 3)
- Amazon* Big Box (2 on 0)
- Cider* (2 on 0)
- J.Jill (1-5 net on 256)
- 7th Avenue* (1 on 20+)
- Thursday Boot Company* (1 on 4)
- Revolve* (1 on 2)
- Povision* (1 on 0)
- Addison Bay* (1 on 3)
- GameStop (700+ US of 2,300+ note)
- 7-Eleven NA (645 of 13K+)
- Francesca's (450+ of 450+)
- Family Dollar (350+ of 7,450+)
- Hibbett (~175 of ~980)
- Eddie Bauer US + Can (~175 of ~175)
- Signet Jewelers (~100 of 2,582)
- Value City Furniture (79 of 79)
- Dollar Tree (~75 of 9,282)
- Genesco (75 of 1,236)
- Tractor Supply's Petsense (75 of 207)
- West Marine (59 of 200+)
- Saks OFF 5TH (57 of 69)
- Amazon Fresh (57 of 57)
- Cato (up to 40 of 1,070)
- Grocery Outlet (36 of 570)
- CVS (~35 of ~9K note)
- Zumiez (26 of 716 total worldwide)
- Fossil (21 of 199)
- American Eagle (20-25 AE of 805 AE)
- Abercrombie (20 of 829 owned)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 of 512)
- Allbirds* US full-price (~20 of ~20)
- Urban Outfitters (19 of 784 owned)
- Shoe Carnival/Station (18-24 of 426)
- Saks Fifth Avenue full-line (18 of 33)
- Petco (15-20 net of 1,382)
- Caleres (15 of ~820)
- Amazon Go (15 of 15)
- Nike Well Collective (15 of 15)
- Albertsons (14 net of 2,200+)
- Amer. Signature Furniture (10 of 10)
- Tilly's (6 of 224)
- Ross Stores (5-10 of 1,900+)
- Sportsman's Warehouse (5 of ~150)
- Johnny Was (5 of 78)
- Neiman Marcus Last Call (5 of 5)
- Neiman Marcus full-line (4 of 36)
- Apple US retail (3 of ~270)
- Vince (3 net of 60)
- Nordstrom (2 of ~90 full-line)
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out last Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/15/26 were lower than expected at only 206K vs. the Street's 211K estimate and down 6K from a revised 212K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose by 18K, to 1.80M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Reassuring to see another low Jobless Claims number after the weak Nonfarm Payrolls for July report -- down 23K -- supports the "low-hire, low-fire" narrative around the labor market, and with Unemployment at only 4.1%, is positive for consumer spending.
Out Tuesday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.05 on average across the US for the week ended 8/17/26, up $0.04 from the prior week and up $0.92 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.45, up $0.19 on the week and up $1.74 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices could come down quickly with a US/Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but for now, the significant y/y increase is a meaningful headwind to discretionary spending, esp by lower-income consumers (e.g. core dollar store customer).
Also out Tuesday, Pending Home Sales for July were weaker than expected and fell 2% m/m vs. the Street's estimate and reflected declines across all regions of the country, while Pending Home sales also fell 2% on a year-over-year basis when compared to July 2025.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: High mortgage rates -- the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.5% in July -- continue to suppress housing turnover, but there are signs of life in some areas of retail more dependent on home sales, including furniture, based on recent reports from Wayfair, which grew US revs by 9% in the second quarter, and Arhaus, which grew comp written sales by 12.5%.
Source: Labor Dept and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Reformation (REF, $14.48) at least nine firms initiate coverage following the end of the quiet period for the IPO bankers, all but one -- Morgan Stanley is at Equal Weight -- are Buy/equivalent, with targets ranging from $18 (RBC) to $21 (JPM) and the broad thesis centering around REF's strong private label assortment and (mostly) full-price selling model, customer loyalty, potential for category expansion and international growth, and store growth opportunity with only 70+ stores now.
- Morgan Stanley makes positive comments about REF's e-comm model and supply chain but says the brand is still exposed to fashion, brand and competitive risks.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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