Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Prime Day off to a good start, Destination XL gets a slightly higher offer from Zodiac, Alo Yoga may be setting the stage for an IPO, Casey's holding investor event amid strong momentum, GameStop still wants eBay, Nike's CFO transition...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Wednesday, June 24, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Prime Day's Good Start, DXLG Gets Slightly Higher Offer, an Alo Yoga IPO, Nike's CFO Change...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/22)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/23)
- Amazon Prime Day, runs through Friday
- Kroger meeting with investors in Cincinnati, hosted by Oppenheimer
- Ollie's doing investor meetings in KC/Denver today/tomorrow, hosted by KeyBanc
- G-III Apparel doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Oxford Industries doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by KeyBanc
Wednesday (6/24)
- Citi Trends doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by D.A. Davidson
- Casey's 2026 Investor Day in NYC, starts at 9:30 am and will be webcast
- New Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at 655K SAAR vs. prior 622K
- Havertys Furniture doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Morgan Stanley Consumer & Retail Summit
Thursday (6/25)
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 226K
- Personal Income/Spend for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.5%/+0.5% m/m vs. prior flat/+0.5%
- Retail Marketing Society monthly webinar at noon, focus is wellness and its impact on retail, DoRCR will provide a brief Retail & Consumer update to start the event, info here
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Wolfe Research Virtual Consumer Access Day
Friday (6/26)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 49.2 vs. prior 48.9
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 2.6% as of ~11:00 am vs. a 0.7% gain in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are outperforming as Adobe says US online spending on the first day of Amazon Prime Day was better than it expected and reaffirmed a forecast for 9% y/y growth over four days.
- Stronger retail stocks include ARHS, RH, VNCE, FND and LOVE, all up 9%-10%, with the four home-oriented names likely getting a lift from the continued slide in oil prices.
- Weaker retail stocks include CASY, which is holding an investor day in NYC and is down 8%, though still up nearly 40% YTD, also YSWY (down 6%, maybe in sympathy with CASY?), TLYS (down 3%), OXM (down 3%) and NKE (down 2%, announced a CFO transition).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- The $8.3B in online spending is up 5% y/y from Prime Day day one in July last year.
- Strong sellers on day one included electronics, appliances, tools and home & garden products, while everyday essentials also did well, as expected.
- Deals are expected to be greatest in apparel, at 23% off the listed retail price vs. 24% off last year, then electronics at 23% vs. 23%, toys at 19% vs. 19%, TVs at 18%, also unchanged vs. last year, appliances at 18% vs. 17%, furniture at 15% vs. 18%, computers at 14% vs. 13%.
- AI-driven traffic to US retail sites is expected to increase 103% vs. June 2025, and BNPL is expected to drive $2.04B of sales, up 6% y/y and nearly 8% of e-comm spending.
- Mobile shopping is expected to drive $14.2B of spending, or 54%, an all-time high.
- For comparison, Cyber Monday 2025 drove $14.3B of online sales, Black Friday $11.8B.
- Numerator, which tracks Prime Day stats, will give its next update here at 4:00 pm today.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is all consistent with recent spending indicators, including Retail Sales for May, out last week and showed 7% y/y growth, and the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales up 7% y/y in May, and it also highlights consumer interest in shopping back-to-school and other events/holidays earlier and earlier to take advantage of deals/promos.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Destination XL (DXLG, $0.69) has rec'd a new, slightly higher buyout offer from Zodiac Partners, which says it will pay $0.84 per share to acquire all DXLG shares, up from a prior $0.82 per share that was rejected by DXLG on grounds it was" highly conditional and opportunistic" and did not reflect the company's underlying/intrinsic value; this new offer is also likely to be a non-starter.
- Destination XL has ~55M shares, so the $0.84 implies an equity value of ~$46M.
Casey's (CASY, $831.89) published a slide presentation here in front of this morning's 2026 Investor Day in NYC, slide 48 outlines the company's growth strategy for the next three years, includes generating EBITDA growth of 8%-10%, adding 400+ stores on a base of 2,900+ via new builds and acquisitions, comping inside sales up by a MSD% and fuel gallons flat, expanding inside margins, growing EBITDA faster than opex, and generating ~$2B in free cash flow.
GameStop (GME, $21.08) has withdrawn a proposed CEO Performance Award at the request of CEO Ryan Cohen, who says he wants GameStop leadership to focus on company operating performance and the company's proposed acquisition of eBay; GameStop says the Performance Award was adopted in January 2026, before GameStop had decided to pursue an acquisition of eBay.
- The award would have given Cohen options to buy as many as 170M+ GameStop shares at $20.66 each and was one of six reasons eBay rejected GameStop's $55B+ offer.
- Under an aggressive GME price appreciation scenario, Cohen could have made $35B.
- GameStop also said it plans to provide a detailed presentation this week explaining the strategic rationale and operational plan for a combined GameStop + eBay.
JD Sports Fashion's (UK) shares began trading in the US today on the OTCQX Best Market under the tickers JDSPY and JDDSF as the stock continues to trade in London under ticker JD.
- The new listing will improve access to JD for US investors and follows a period of significant growth in North America, largely via acquisition (e.g. Hibbett, Finish Line, etc.).
- North America is now JD's biggest region and drives nearly 40% of its sales.
Target is out with the first official back-to-school/back-to-college press release here, highlights new brand launches including LoveShackFancy x Target, which will be available for a limited time, starting 7/5/26 and retail for <$55, with most items <$25, also The Hollister Collection at Target, which will launch this Sunday, and a Target-exclusive Overtime apparel collection.
Stitch Fix (SFIX, $4.33) is expanding its Stitch Fix Vision AI style visualization platform, release here, says clients can now generate personalized images of themselves wearing recommended outfits after uploading a selfie through the Stitch Fix app and tapping "See it on me."
Best Buy ($75.15) has launched RGB LED TVs from Samsung, Sony, LG, TCL and Hisense across its US store fleet, calls it "the most significant advancement in TV technology in more than a decade," also says it is the exclusive national retailer for RGB LED, and notes many consumers are starting to shop for a new TV after 48M+ units were purchased in 2020 and given a 5-7 year replacement cycle.
Nordstrom (private) has opened a 5K sf FAO Schwarz (toys) "flagship" inside its 57th Street flagship in NYC and plans to launch the concept, called "The Jewel Box," in eight of its best-performing stores, including Miami, Bellevue, WA, Brea, CA, Paramus, NJ, Dallas, Oak Brook, IL, Costa Mesa, CA and San Diego, starting next month, size will range from 1,200-1,500 sf.
Academy Sports + Outdoors has joined Uber Eats for on-demand delivery from its stores.
Alo is "primed for (a) public offering or sale" acc'd to Reuters, which says parent company Color Image Apparel's recent agreement to sell its wholesale Bella+Canvas T-shirt and apparel business makes it easier for potential investors or buyers to understand Alo's underlying value and may be a prelude to an IPO or sale. Color Image Apparel is fully owned by its founders Danny Harris and Marco DeGeorge, who have not spoken publicly about either an IPO or a sale.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
MINISO (China, toy retailer) opened its largest US store early this year, 12,500 sf, in Fremont, CA, and plans to open 15K sf MINISO Land experiential stores in Columbus, OH and Las Vegas.
Salomon (France, part of Amer Sports) will soft open its seventh North American store next Wednesday, location is 141 Fifth Avenue in NYC's Flatiron District, grand opening is 7/8/26.
Trader Joe's (600+ stores) will open a new store in Anaheim Hills, CA, at 6336 E. Santa Ana Canyon Road, in a former Big Lots, part of a plan to open 30+ stores this year from what we can tell.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Grove Collaborative CFO since early-2025 and 7+ year company financial exec Tom Siragusa is resigning to pursue another opportunity and will continue to serve as CFO until mid-August as Grove begins a search to identify his successor.
Nike CFO since spring 2020 and 17+ year company financial exec Matthew Friend is stepping down in mid-August and will be succeeded by Pfizer CFO since 2022, Lowe's CFO for the prior four years, and former CVS Chief Financial Officer and 20-year CVS financial exec David Denton.
- Nike also said it expects 4Q26 (May) results to be "generally in line" with prior guidance, excluding an expected 1x benefit from tariffs that was not included in prior guidance.
- Prior guidance for the quarter included a 2%-4% y/y decline in revs and assumed modest growth in North America, offset by declines in Greater China and at Converse.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 10:00 am, New Home Sales for May were weaker than expected and fell 7% m/m to an annualized 580K vs. the Street's 655K estimate and the lowest rate since January 2026, while the median selling price for a new home rose very slightly y/y, to $424,900.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The housing mkt is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Out yesterday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $3.91 on average across the US for the week ended 6/22/26, down $0.14 from the prior week but up $0.70 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $4.83, down $0.23 on the week but up $1.06 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas in the $4 area is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at close to $5 per gallon is a headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Out last Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 were close to expectations at 226K and decreased 4K from a slightly revised 230K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which indicate how long it's taking those without jobs to find jobs, rose by 24K, to 1.18M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out Wednesday, headline Retail Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 0.9% m/m vs. the Street's +0.6% estimate after a slightly revised +0.4% increase in April, while Retail Sales excluding autos and fuel increased 0.5% in May after a 0.5% m/m increase in April.
- Eleven of 13 merchandise categories grew sales on a month-to-month basis.
- On a year-over-year basis, headline Retail Sales grew 6.9%, best since early-2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is consistent with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales ex fuel/autos/restaurants up 7.0% y/y in May, driven by factors including bigger tax refunds than last year, accelerating jobs growth and the strong stock market.
Source: Census Bureau, HUD and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Nike (NKE, $42.38) Citi maintains a Neutral rating and $47 target after the announced hiring of Pfizer CFO David Denton to succeed Matthew Friend in mid-August, says the timing is a surprise and sees potential for the transition to delay Nike's planned Investor Day in the fall, also says the change highlights the necessary steps the company is taking to "right the ship."
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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