Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Home Depot's good 2Q26 + market share gains, Academy opening many stores in the third quarter, gas and diesel prices rising, Amer Sports is seeing continued momentum, weak data on both Pending Home Sales and Housing Starts in July...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Home Depot's Good 2Q + Mkt Share Gains, Academy Store Openings, Gas and Diesel Prices Up...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (8/17)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (8/18)
- Amer Sports reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.54B/$0.11
- Housing Starts for July at 8:30 am, Street at (6.6%) m/m vs. prior +19.0%
- Home Depot reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 0.9%, EPS of $4.73
- Pending Home Sales for July at 10:00 am, Street at +0.2% m/m vs. prior (5.4%)
- La-Z-Boy reports 1Q27 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $501.4M/$0.49
Wednesday (8/19)
- Revolve meeting with investors in San Francisco, hosted by BTIG
- Target reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 2.4%, EPS of $2.35
- La-Z-Boy 1Q27 call at 8:30 am
- Lowe's reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 0.5%, EPS of $4.22
- TJX reports 2Q27, call 11:00 am, Street at comps up 3.3%, EPS of $1.19
Thursday (8/20)
- Walmart reports 2Q27, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 3.8%, EPS of $0.74
- Advance Auto Parts reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.4%, EPS of $0.81
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/15/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 211K vs. prior 209K
- Ross Stores reports 2Q26, call 4:15 pm, Street at comps up 7.7%, EPS of $1.95
Friday (8/21)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- BJ's Wholesale reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 2.6%, EPS of $1.17
- The Buckle reports 2Q26, call 10:00 am, actual comps up 2.1%, EPS expected at $0.81
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
DoRCR's RETAIL & CONSUMER WEBINAR
If you weren't able to tune into our inaugural monthly Retail & Consumer Zoom webinar last Wednesday and would like to watch the recording, just click here to view it online, no username or password required. It's ~35 minutes and covers our thoughts on the current macro/consumer backdrop and the 2026 back-to-school season. Our next webinar will be Wednesday, 9/9/26, the second Wednesday of the month, at 2:00 pm. Feedback and suggestions are welcome!
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.5% as of ~10:15 am vs. a 0.5% decline in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are outperforming after a better-than-expected second quarter from Home Depot.
- Stronger retail stocks include BBWI, which is up 6% on an analyst upgrade, also ULTA (up 5%), AS (up 5%, strong results), TPR (up 5%) and CHWY (up 5%).
- Weaker retail stocks include DBGI, DXLG, BRLT, REF and BOOT, all down 3%-6%.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Total comps increased 1.7% on top of +1.0% last year after +0.6% on top of (0.3%) in the first quarter and were better than the Street's +0.9% estimate, while US comps increased 1.3% after +0.4% in the first quarter, and total sales grew 6% to $47.86B.
- Total sales growth was driven largely by the September 2025 acquisition of GMS.
- Comps incorporated a 1.0% decrease in customer transactions after (1.3%) in the first quarter and a 2.8% increase in average ticket after +2.2% in the first quarter.
- Adjusted EPS were $4.92 vs. $4.68 last year and the Street's $4.73 estimate and incorporated a slight decline in adjusted operating margin, to 14.7%.
- Ending inventories were up 8% y/y and reflect the $5.5B GMS acquisition.
- FY26 guidance includes comps of flat to up 2% vs. the Street's +1.1% estimate, total sales growth of 2.5%-4.5%, which implies $170.45B at the mid-point vs. the Street's $170.98B, and adjusted EPS flat to up 4%, which implies $14.98 at the mid-point vs. the Street's $14.95.
- Important note: Guidance now includes benefits from IEEPA tariff refunds, which are expected to partially offset incremental fuel, energy and other product input costs.
- Home Depot is still planning to open ~15 new stores in FY26 on a base of 2,359 stores.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Home Depot executes very well and is taking share in a tough home improvement industry, but mortgage and interest rates could remain high and keep housing turnover low, while the significant increase in fuel costs is not good for consumer discretionary spending, especially on bigger-ticket purchases, and is also not good for HD's transport costs.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $105.16) Raymond James downgrades from OP to Mkt Perform
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI, $18.81) Citi upgrades from Neutral to Buy
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Amer Sports (AS, $32.57), which owns brands including Arc'teryx, Salomon and Wilson, had a strong and better-than-expected 2Q26 (June) and grew constant-currency revs by 30%, to $1.63B, driven in part by "exceptional" performance from Salomon Softgoods, along with good growth at Arc'teryx and an acceleration at Wilson Tennis 360, and management raise full-year revenue, margin and EPS guidance and said stronger momentum has continued into the third quarter.
Home Depot has expanded its Express Delivery service across the US, includes delivery of orders in three hours or less for a small flat fee, no subscription or membership required, and uses the company's 2K+ US stores as fulfillment hubs for thousands of SKUs across categories.
Target will replace its Ulta Beauty at Target ~1K sf beauty spaces with its own Target Beauty Studio in 600+ stores + online this fall as the five-year Ulta partnership winds down and will highlight prestige brands while adding 60 new-to-Target brands in skincare, haircare, fragrance and cosmetics.
Only 17.6% of Hugo Boss shareholders accepted a EUR38 per share buyout offer from the UK's Frasers Group as most viewed the offer -- only a 4% premium to the unaffected stock price -- as too low and not genuine. Frasers did, however, boost its ownership to ~48%.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Academy Sports + Outdoors, which has 300+ stores in 21 states, has opened two new stores so far in its 3Q26 (Oct), in Clairsville, OH and Kerrville, TX, and plans to open nine more stores over the balance of the quarter, in Celina, TX, McAlester, OK, Lacy Lakeview, TX, Fayetteville, GA, Roanoke, VA, Statesboro, GA, Granbury, TX, Millington, TN, and Fairview, TX.
- The new stores are part of a reaffirmed plan to open 20-25 new stores this year.
Foot Locker, which is owned by Dick's Sporting Goods and has 2,400+ stores globally, has collaborated with Nike and partnered with neighborhood leaders on a new L.A. store called "The Crenshaw Rec by Foot Locker," will open Saturday and has been inspired by recreation centers with features including an equipment room, open gym, etc., and similar stores are being explored.
Whole Foods, Trader Joe's and Sprouts are all opening stores in the Philadelphia market as discussed here by Supermarket News, says all are responding to a surge in new apartment and home construction in the city and suburbs and notes Whole Foods plans to open two smaller Daily Shops in Philly and a traditional store in Upper Providence Township, while Trader Joe's is planning a South Philadelphia store, and Sprouts plans to open store in Havertown, PA and Sewell, NJ.
Beyond Yoga (digital native, owned by Levi Strauss) has opened its 16th store, 1,500 sf, at 324 Manhattan Beach Boulevard in Manhattan Beach, CA, within the Los Angeles market.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Vuori has hired Abercrombie & Fitch Chief Marketing Officer since 2022 and ANF marketing exec since 2018, also former David Yurman, Ralph Lauren and Donna Karan marketing exec Carey Collins Krug as Chief Marketing Officer, succeeds Karen Riley-Grant, who left Vuori early this year, will start in early-October and will report to Vuori founder and CEO Joe Kudla.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.05 on average across the US for the week ended 8/17/26, up $0.04 from the prior week and up $0.92 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.45, up $0.19 on the week and up $1.74 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices could come down quickly with a US/Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but for now, the significant y/y increase is a meaningful headwind to discretionary spending, esp by lower-income consumers (e.g. core dollar store customer).
Out at 10:00 am, Pending Home Sales for July were weaker than expected and fell 2% m/m vs. the Street's +0.2% estimate and reflected declines across all regions of the country, while Pending Home sales also fell 2% on a year-over-year basis when compared to July 2025.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: High mortgage rates -- the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.5% in July -- continue to suppress housing turnover, but there are signs of life in some areas of retail more dependent on home sales, including furniture, based on recent reports from Wayfair, which grew US revs by 9% in the second quarter, and Arhaus, which grew comp written sales by 12.5%.
Out at 8:30 am, Housing Starts for July were much weaker than expected and fell 12% m/m vs. the Street's (6.6%) estimate after a revised +20% increase in June and were down 14% from July 2025, while Building Permits increased 5% from June and were 3% higher than July 2025.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: High mortgage rates -- the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.5% in July -- continue to suppress housing turnover, but there are signs of life in some areas of retail more dependent on home sales, including furniture, based on recent reports from Wayfair, which grew US revs by 9% in the second quarter, and Arhaus, which grew comp written sales by 12.5%.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Bath & Body Works (BBWI, $18.81) Citi upgrades from Neutral to Buy and maintains a $25 target in front of 2Q26 (July) results next Wednesday morning, thinks risk/reward is favorable, expects an earnings beat, also positive commentary around recent products launches, and believes the new Fruit Fusion collection -- Hillary Duff is creative partner -- is performing particularly well.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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