Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Prime Day and related events could drive record online spending, celebrity favorite Reformation set to go public, maybe in July, our latest weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis, strong toy industry sales so far this year, ALDI's US store focus...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Monday, June 22, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
A Bullish Prime Day Forecast, a Reformation IPO in July, Our Store Openings/Closings...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/22)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/23)
- Amazon Prime Day, runs through Friday
- G-III Apparel doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Oxford Industries doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by KeyBanc
Wednesday (6/24)
- Citi Trends doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by D.A. Davidson
- Casey's 2026 Investor Day in NYC, starts at 9:30 am and will be webcast
- New Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at 655K SAAR vs. prior 622K
- Havertys Furniture doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Morgan Stanley Consumer & Retail Summit
Thursday (6/25)
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 224K vs. prior 226K
- Personal Income/Spend for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.4%/+0.3% m/m vs. prior flat/+0.5%
- Retail Marketing Society monthly webinar at noon, focus is wellness and its impact on retail, DoRCR will provide a brief Retail & Consumer update to start the event, info here
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Wolfe Research Virtual Consumer Access Day
Friday (6/26)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 48.9 vs. prior 48.9
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.4% as of ~10:55 am vs. a 0.4% decline in the S&P 500.
- Weaker retail stocks include SNBR, which recently filed Ch 11, will be de-listed from the Nasdaq tomorrow, and is down 18%, also LE, ONON, RENT and AAP, all down 6%+.
- Stronger retail stocks include OXM, which is up 5%, also DKS (up 4%), BBBY (up 4%, launches a "Legendary Coupon Hunt," info here), DLTR (up 4%), and CVS (up 4%).
Last Week: The XRT fell 1.5% vs. a 0.9% gain in the S&P 500, which was volatile around Wednesday afternoon's FOMC interest rate decision but ended the holiday-shortened weak with a nice gain Thursday as oil prices fell following the signing of a preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran. Retail stocks underperformed despite strong Retail Sales for May as the numbers were not surprising and right in line with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, out the prior week. Other noteworthy retail developments included new shareholder activism at Designer Brands as Stone House Capital disclosed a 16% position and said it plans to engage with management and the board, the return of Isaac Mizrahi to Target as creative director at large, and Kroger's slightly weaker-than-expected results and cautious commentary about the consumer.
- Weaker retail stocks included SNBR, which will be delisted from the Nasdaq tomorrow and fell 47% on the week, also volatile DBGI (down 21%), TLYS (down 19%), GCO (down 16%) and GIL (down 15% on a negative/short report from Jehoshaphat Research).
- Stronger retail stocks included VNCE, which reported an upside 1Q26 and rose 47% on the week, also REAL (up 21%, positive WSJ mention), CTRN (up 20%), TDUP (up 19%) and W (up 14%, announced plans for its eighth retail store, in Princeton, NJ).
2026 Year-to-Date: The XRT is up 1.3% vs. a 9.6% gain in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks include TLYS, which is up 123%, also DLTH (up 104%), CURV (up 97%), VNCE (up 74%) and VRA (up 61%).
- Weaker retail stocks include SNBR, which is down 98%, also DBGI (down 94%), ODD (down 67%), RENT (down 57%) and BBW (down 47%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Deals are expected to be greatest in apparel, at 23% off the listed retail price vs. 24% off last year, then electronics at 23% vs. 23%, toys at 19% vs. 19%, TVs at 18%, also unchanged vs. last year, appliances at 18% vs. 17%, furniture at 15% vs. 18%, computers at 14% vs. 13%.
- AI-driven traffic to US retail sites is expected to increase 103% vs. June 2025, and BNPL is expected to drive $2.04B of sales, up 6% y/y and nearly 8% of e-comm spending.
- Mobile shopping is expected to drive $14.2B of spending, or 54%, an all-time high.
- For comparison, Cyber Monday 2025 drove $14.3B of online sales, Black Friday $11.8B.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is all consistent with recent spending indicators, including Retail Sales for May, out last week and showed 7% y/y growth, and the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales up 7% y/y in May, and it also highlights consumer interest in shopping back-to-school and other events/holidays earlier and earlier to take advantage of deals/promos.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Casey's (CASY, $842.25) CapitalOne initiates coverage with an Equal Weight rating
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
US Toy Industry sales were strong in the first four months of this year and grew 13% y/y in dollars for the January-April period, driven by a 5% increase in units sold and a 7% increase in average selling price acc'd to the latest data from Circana, which said seven of 11 toy "supercategories" it tracks grew dollar sales compared to last year.
- Top-performing toy segments included games and puzzles, which grew 39% y/y, driven by strong sales of Pokemon-related merchandise, explorative and other toys, up 36% and led by MLB and NeeDoh, and building sets, up 20% and led by LEGO Botanicals and F1.
- Circana noted "resilient (consumer) demand and evolving consumer behavior," also consumer enthusiasm for trading cards, collectibles and licensed properties.
- Adults age 18 and up drove 35% of all US toy industry growth in the period.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Kroger's e-commerce ops were profitable for the first time in 1Q26 (May) acc'd to CFO David Kennerley, speaking during the company's quarterly conference call last Thursday, said e-comm profitability is expanding and will "become a larger contributor to (overall) margin expansion over time" and help offset pressures including growth in lower-margin generic Rx sales.
Consumer Growth Partners and Sisu Equity have acquired SC-based apparel, accessories and lifestyle brand Local Boy Outfitters for an undisclosed amt and plan to support continued growth of the brand as it expands into new channels, expands its assortment, and grows geographically.
Castore, a fast-growing UK-based premium sports/activewear brand launched in 2015, has acquired a 75% controlling stake in UK-based premium boot and shoemaker Grenson for an undisclosed amount through its parent company J. Carter Sporting Club Limited.
Dana-co LLC, a NYC-based intimate apparel company, has acquired Santa Monica-based intimates, sleepwear and lifestyle brand Lunya from its founder for an undisclosed amount and plans to expand the brand's distribution with new product via DTC e-comm and wholesale.
L'Oreal (Paris) signed an agreement last week to acquire a majority interest in India-based beauty and personal care brand Innovist for an undisclosed amount as it looks to expand in the country and said it expects the transaction to close in the next few months, pending approvals.
Digitally-led womenswear brand Reformation could go public as soon as next month acc'd to the WSJ, which notes the brand is popular with celebrities including Taylor Swift and Meghan Markle, and says it is expected to do $500M+ in revs this year. Reformation launched in L.A. in 2009 as a vintage apparel boutique, was initially focused on dresses, and has since expanded into denim, footwear, handbags and swimwear. UK-based PE firm Permira is majority owner.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
ALDI USA, which had 2,600+ stores at the beginning of this year, is now targeting 3,200 US stores by 2028 and sees potential for 4K+ stores acc'd to Chief Commercial Officer Scott Patton, who says the company is "trying to take market share from anyone who sells groceries."
Addison Bay, a Philadelphia-based digitally native women's activewear brand, will open its fourth retail store in September, 3,600 sf, on Knox Street in Dallas.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Ahold Delhaize has nominated Amazon VP for Worldwide Fresh from 2023-2025 and former Woolworths Group Australia and longtime Tesco Stores exec Claire Peters to be Ahold Delhaize USA CEO, effective in early-September and pending shareholder approval, will succeed JJ Fleeman, who is leaving Ahold USA at the end of this month and will join Dollar General as CEO in early-2027.
Rag & Bone, which is owned by Guess and WHP Global and has 65+ stores globally, has hired Fendi President of the Americas since September 2024 and former Louis Vuitton, Saint Laurent and Prada Group exec Valentina Lucaj as Brand President, a new position at the company.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out last Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 were close to expectations at 226K and decreased 4K from a slightly revised 230K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which indicate how long it's taking those without jobs to find jobs, rose by 24K, to 1.18M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out Wednesday, Pending Home Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 3.8% m/m vs. the Street's +1.0% and after a downwardly-revised +0.3% in April, while Pending Home Sales increased nearly 5% on a year-over-year basis compared to May 2025.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Great to see, but the housing mkt is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Also out Wednesday, headline Retail Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 0.9% m/m vs. the Street's +0.6% estimate after a slightly revised +0.4% increase in April, while Retail Sales excluding autos and fuel increased 0.5% in May after a 0.5% m/m increase in April.
- Eleven of 13 merchandise categories grew sales on a month-to-month basis.
- On a year-over-year basis, headline Retail Sales grew 6.9%, best since early-2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is consistent with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales ex fuel/autos/restaurants up 7.0% y/y in May, driven by factors including bigger tax refunds than last year, accelerating jobs growth and the strong stock market.
Source: Labor Dept and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Casey's (CASY, $842.25) CapitalOne initiates coverage with an Equal Weight rating and $896 price target, we don't have any more details but note 55% of the 20+ sell-side firms covering the stock are currently recommending it, while the remaining 45% have Neutral or equivalent ratings.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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