Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Webinar recording available, pls scroll for the link to view, headline Retail Sales for July miss, but y/y growth is good, U. Mich. Sentiment drops and is a watchpoint as the labor market wobbles, Birkenstock prices a 25.5M share secondary offering...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Friday, August 14, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Webinar Recording Available + July Sales Miss and U. Mich. Sentiment Drops Meaningfully...
NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (8/17)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (8/18)
- Amer Sports reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.54B/$0.11
- Housing Starts for July at 8:30 am, Street at (6.1%) m/m vs. prior +19.0%
- Home Depot reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 0.9%, EPS of $4.73
- Pending Home Sales for July at 10:00 am, Street at +1.4% m/m vs. prior (5.4%)
- La-Z-Boy reports 1Q27 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $501.4M/$0.49
Wednesday (8/19)
- Revolve meeting with investors in San Francisco, hosted by BTIG
- Target reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 2.4%, EPS of $2.34
- La-Z-Boy 1Q27 call at 8:30 am
- Lowe's reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 0.6%, EPS of $4.23
- TJX reports 2Q27, call 11:00 am, Street at comps up 3.4%, EPS of $1.19
Thursday (8/20)
- Walmart reports 2Q27, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 3.8%, EPS of $0.74
- Advance Auto Parts reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.4%, EPS of $0.80
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/15/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 205K vs. prior 209K
- Ross Stores reports 2Q26, call 4:15 pm, Street at comps up 7.5%, EPS of $1.94
Friday (8/21)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- BJ's Wholesale reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 2.6%, EPS of $1.17
- The Buckle reports 2Q26, call 10:00 am, actual comps up 2.1%, EPS expected at $0.81
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
DoRCR's RETAIL & CONSUMER WEBINAR
If you weren't able to tune into our inaugural monthly Retail & Consumer Zoom webinar on Wednesday and would like to watch the recording, just click here to view it online, no username or password required. It's ~35 minutes and covers our thoughts on the current macro/consumer backdrop and the 2026 back-to-school season. Our next webinar will be Wednesday, 9/9/26, the second Wednesday of the month, at 2:00 pm. Feedback and suggestions are welcome!
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.3% as of ~10:45 am vs. a slight decline in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are underperforming a bit after weaker-than-expected headline (m/m) Retail Sales for July, though we note sales were very solid on a year-over-year basis and increased 5.0%.
- Weaker retail stocks include LANV, which is down 4%, also BRLT (down 3%), BIRK (down 3% on a 25.5M share secondary), TDUP (down 3%) and SIG (down 2%).
- Stronger retail stocks include WWW, which is up 5% on positive analyst commentary after yesterday's 2Q26 results, also DXLG, BBWI, RCKY and ONON, all up 2%-5%.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
We're not seeing anything market moving (retail-wise) beyond the analyst call below...
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Wayfair (W, $101.13) Bernstein upgrades from Market Perform to Outperform
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
Vacant retail space is expected to remain flattish and below 4.5% over the next several years acc'd to a new forecast from CoStar, which expects rent growth to "strengthen modestly" amid solid tenant demand and continued low new retail construction.
- The forecast reflects more store openings than store closings and a decline in store closing announcements to the lowest level in several quarters.
- It also reflects faster-than-expected backfilling as retail space becomes available.
- Concerns include higher energy prices, tariffs and a potential labor-market slowdown.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Birkenstock (BIRK, $41.00) priced a 25.5M secondary share offering by majority holder L Catterton at $39.35 per share, or a 4% discount to yesterday's closing price, and agreed to repurchase 12.8M shares at a price equal to the price paid by the underwriter JPM in the offering.
- Birkenstock is not selling stock and will not receive any proceeds from the secondary.
C&S Wholesale Grocers is planning to become majority owner of The Winn-Dixie Company in a transaction expected to close next year and for which terms have not been disclosed, while Winn-Dixie CEO Anthony Hucker, who led a group of private investors, who, along with C&S, acquired Southeastern Grocers from Aldi last year, then re-branded to Winn-Dixie, will transition to a special advisor role as Winn-Dixie CFO Raymond Rhee takes over as CEO until the deal closes.
Asics' (Japan) stock rose 11% in Tokyo after the company reported strong results for the first half of 2026, including a 33% y/y increase in sales, to ~$3.4B USD, and a nearly 50% increase in profit, and called out especially strong performance in Europe, where sales grew 46%, while sales in North America increased 28% y/y, and management raised full-year guidance.
Samsonite is buying an 85% stake in luggage/bag brand BEIS for $178.5M in cash as part of a push to increase exposure to younger consumers and plans to make BEIS a subsidiary. BEIS did $210M in sales last year, and founder Shay Mitchell will retain a 15% stake.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Sprouts, which had 490 stores in 25 states as of the end of June and is planning to open 42 net new stores this year, plans to enter the Midwest next year, starting with the Chicago market, where it plans to open 10+ stores in 2027-2028, then Detroit, where it plans to open ~10 stores in 2028-2029, then Cleveland and Columbus, OH, with ~6 stores in each market, starting in 2028.
Bealls, which has 660+ stores in 22 states and has an off-price/value focus, is planning to open 25 new stores across 12 states this fall and in spring 2027, and will open its first stores in Michigan, where five are planned, with an average new store size of 20,800 sf.
Indochino, a digitally native, made-to-measure menswear retailer with 90+ showrooms in the US and Canada, plans to open 10 new <1K sf showrooms across the US, including six in early-2027 in Cherry Hill, NJ, Columbia, MD, Ross Park, PA, Brea, CA, Roosevelt Field, NY, and Boca Raton.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Lululemon Chief AI & Technology Officer since September 2025 and former SWAN AI STUDIOS and Optum Labs CEO, also longtime Amazon and Barnes & Noble tech exec Ranju Das is no longer serving as Chief AI & Tech Officer, and the company has plans to transition his responsibilities.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 10:00 am, U. Mich. Sentiment for August (preliminary) was significantly weaker than expected at 51.0 vs. the Street's 54.5 estimate and a meaningful decline from a final read of 55.2 in July as sentiment deteriorated across demographic groups, but in particular with older consumers, lower-income consumers and consumers without a college degree.
- Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose slightly, to +4.3%.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Sentiment and spending have not correlated at all in recent quarters, but fragile consumer psychology, along with a low savings rate, could make for a much tougher retail dynamic if we get another month or two of negative Nonfarm Payrolls.
Out at 8:30 am, headline Retail Sales for July were weaker than expected and fell 0.6% m/m vs. the Street's +0.1% estimate and after a 0.2% m/m increase in June, while headline Retail Sales rose 5.0% on year-over-year basis vs. July 2025 after a revised +6.8% increase in June.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The +5.0% y/y increase in Retail Sales July is consistent with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, and reflects the shift of Amazon's Prime Day and related retailer promotions from July 2025 to June 2026 and a pull-forward of BTS sales; retail sales have been strong YTD, but we are keeping a close eye on the labor market.
Out yesterday, the headline Producer Price Index for July was lower than expected at +4.7% y/y vs. the Street's +4.9% and down significantly from +5.5% in June, while core PPI excluding food and energy increased 4.2% y/y, also a significant moderation from June, when it was +4.7%.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: These are bigger m/m declines than what we saw with Wednesday's CPI report, and this is encouraging as it relates to the impact of inflation on consumer spending.
Source: Commerce Dept and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Wayfair (W, $101.13) Bernstein upgrades from Market Perform to Outperform and raises its target from $100 to $125 after the recent 2Q26 (June) results, thinks the Street is underestimating the current (positive) trajectory of the business and expects top-line growth to flow through to stronger EBITDA growth on margin expansion and expense discipline.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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