Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Dollar General's solid quarter, with traffic and ticket growth, Signet's upside earnings, despite high metals and tariff costs, Victoria's Secret's turnaround gaining much momentum, Prime Day and Target Circle Days will overlap, gas prices ease...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Good Results from DG, SIG, VSCO and CTRN, Prime Day Timing, Saks Global Close to Ch 11 Exit...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/1)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- The RealReal doing an investor meeting at 10:30 am, hosted by BTIG
Tuesday (6/2)
- TD Cowen Annual Future of the Consumer Conference thru Weds, list of retailers here
- Baird Global Consumer, Tech and Services Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- William Blair Annual Growth Stock Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- Deutsche Bank Global Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- Steve Madden doing investor meetings in NYC today with TAG, tomorrow with BTIG
- Victoria's Secret reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 11.4%, EPS of $0.32
- Signet Jewelers reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 1.8%, EPS of $1.38
- Yesway reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $678.3M/$0.48
- ODDITY reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $187.9M/($0.03)
- Dollar General reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 2.0%, EPS of $1.89
- Citi Trends reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, prelim comps up 13.9%, EPS expected at $0.32
- Ulta Beauty reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 4.7%, EPS of $6.89
- Sportsman's WH reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 1.1%, EPS of ($0.54)
Wednesday (6/3)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
- Macy's reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.4%, EPS of $0.03
- ADP Employment for May at 8:15 am, Street at +125K vs. prior +109K
- Ollie's reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 1.8%, EPS of $0.87
- Rent the Runway reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, no Street estimates
- Destination XL reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps down 2.0%, EPS of ($0.07)
- PVH reports 1Q26 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $2.00B/$1.82
- Costco reports May sales at 4:15 pm
- Petco reports 1Q26, call 4:15 pm, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.02
- Five Below reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 19.6%, EPS of $1.77
- Tilly's reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 19.0%, EPS of ($0.33)
Thursday (6/4)
- Buckle reports May sales before the open
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/30/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 212K vs. prior 215K
- PVH 1Q26 conference call at 9:00 am
- Walmart Annual Shareholders' Meeting, starts at 9:30 am
- Caleres reports 1Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.34
- Lululemon reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps down 0.2%, EPS of $1.68
- Torrid reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps down 3.8%, EPS of ($0.01)
- Zumiez reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 2.0%, EPS of ($0.81)
Friday (6/5)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- Nonfarm Payrolls for May at 8:30 am, Street at +100K vs. prior +115K, Unemployment expected at 4.3% vs. prior 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings at +0.4% m/m vs. prior +0.2%
- G-III Apparel reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $529.1M/($0.30)
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.5% as of ~11:15 am vs. a 0.2% gain in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are outperforming after good results from Dollar General and Signet and a very impressive report from Victoria's Secret and are also getting a boost from a week-to-week decline in gas prices.
- Stronger retail stocks: DBGI, which announced a licensing deal and is up 26%, SNBR (up 18%), KSS (up 7%, we're not seeing anything), SPWH (up 6%) and BABA (up 6%).
- Weaker retail stocks include ODD, which is down 31% after another weak quarter, also PLCE (down 5%), NKE (down 5%), CHWY (down 4%) and TSCO (down 4%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- The +2.0% comp follows +4.3% in the fourth quarter and reflects some negative impact from winter weather in the quarter and also incorporated a 1.4% increase in traffic, a 0.5% increase in average ticket, and growth in consumables, seasonal, apparel and home.
- Total sales grew 3% to $10.79B and reflected continued net store growth.
- EPS increased 12% y/y to $2.00 vs. the Street's $1.89 and incorporated 65 bps of gross margin improvement on higher inventory markups and lower shrink and damages, partially offset by increased markdowns and higher transportation costs as a % of sales.
- Inventories look good and were flat y/y in total and down 1.6% on an avg store basis.
- FY26 guidance still includes total sales growth of 3.7%-4.2% from $42.72B in FY25, while EPS are now expected at $7.20-$7.45 vs. a reported $6.85 in FY25 and incorporate a slight benefit from a lower tax rate of 24.5% vs. a prior 25% rate assumption.
- Dollar General opened 581 new stores in the US last year and eight in Mexico, finished the year with ~20,900 stores, and still plans to open ~460 stores in FY26 while remodeling ~2K stores through its Project Renovate program and ~2,250 stores through Project Elevate.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Comps moderated from the fourth quarter on a one-year basis but remained in the +5% area on a two-year-stacked basis against a tougher compare in the first quarter, and it's good to see the growth in traffic and the strong earnings performance; all of this speaks to continued market share gains, strong execution, and DG's powerful value proposition.
- Signet plans to initiate a $50M Accelerated Share Repurchase agreement this month and said it will have ~$355M remaining on its share repurchase authorization after the ASR.
- The +1.8% comp reflected growth across all merchandise categories and positive comps over Valentine's Day in February, while total sales grew 1% y/y to $1.55B and incorporated a 5% increase in average unit retail, driven by growth in both Bridal and Fashion.
- The +1.8% comp was also driven by increases of +1.6% in NA and +5.6% in International.
- Adjusted EPS were $1.56 vs. $1.18 last year and the Street's $1.38 estimate and incorporated a 90 bps decrease in gross margin and 130 bps of SG&A leverage.
- Inventories look fine/good and were essentially flat y/y at the end of the quarter.
- FY27 guidance includes comps of (0.75%)-2.5% vs. the Street's +1.5% estimate, total sales of $6.7B-$6.9B vs. $6.81B in FY26, adjusted EBITDA of $655M-$745M vs. $687.2M in FY26, and adjusted EPS of $9.20-$11.00 vs. $9.60 last year and the Street's $10.45 estimate.
- Adjusted EBITDA is unchanged from before, while EPS are higher on stock buybacks.
- Full-year guidance still assumes $60M-$80M in lost revs related to the planned transition of the James Allen brand to a proprietary collection on the Blue Nile website and a plan to retire the jamesallen.com website during the second quarter.
- Guidance also still assumes a "dynamic tariff, commodity, and consumer environment" and a low-single-digit % decrease in net square footage across Signet's banners.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: A meaningful sequential improvement from 4Q26, when comps were slightly negative, despite a significantly tougher comparison and a cautious consumer vis-a-vis bigger-ticket, more discretionary purchasing, while the solid earnings growth -- adjusted op income grew 12% y/y -- is despite high costs for precious metals and ongoing tariff pressures.
- The +13% comp was above the Street's +11.4% estimate, while total sales grew 15% y/y to $1.56B and reflected double-digit growth in new customer acquisition, increased regular-price sales, and broad-based performance across categories/channels/geographies.
- Sales from Stores in North America were $802.8M, up 11% y/y, while Direct sales were $469.4M, up 8%, and International sales were $287.4M, up 45%.
- Adjusted EPS were $0.60 vs. $0.09 last year and the Street's $0.32 estimate and incorporated 240 bps of adjusted gross margin improvement despite tariff impacts.
- Inventories look good and were up 5% y/y after being up 12% in the fourth quarter.
- FY26 guidance: Sales of $7.03B-$7.13B vs. $6.55B in FY25 and a prior $6.85B-$6.95B, adjusted op income of $550M-$580M vs. $403M LY and a prior $430M-$460M, and adjusted EPS of $4.35-$4.60 vs. $3.00 in FY25 and the Street's $3.48 estimate.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: VS&Co is executing a merchandise and marketing-driven turnaround under new(er) CEO Hillary Super, and traction is building -- this was the fourth full quarter under the new leadership team -- despite tough competition with digital natives, others.
- Comps increased 23.8% on a two-year-stacked basis and reflected accelerated performance across all merchandise categories and geographies, also higher traffic and basket size, while total sales grew 14% y/y to $230.9M, and current store count is 591 vs. 590 last year.
- Gross margin increased 40 bps on higher merchandise margin, which was partially offset by higher freight expense as a % of sales b/c of increased fuel surcharges.
- Inventories look good and were up 5% y/y at the end of the quarter.
- Total sales for the year are expected to grow 9%-11% from FY25's $820.0M and incorporate a high-single-digit comparable sales increase 2Q26-to-date.
- Citi Trends still plans to open 25 new stores this year in both existing and new markets on a base of 590 stores to end FY25 while remodeling ~50 stores and closing four stores.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Management did not mention higher tax refunds -- the average refund is ~$325 bigger than last year -- as a factor in the quarter, at least in the press release, but Citi Trends' business has always been highly sensitive to tax refunds, larger and smaller; as we've discussed, off-price retail is also in a real sweet spot vis-a-vis consumers and merch opportunities.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Amazon (AMZN, $261.26) announced the dates for its summer Prime Day(s) event and will run it again for four days, Tuesday, 6/23/26 through Friday, 6/26/26, a few weeks earlier than last year's event, and not surprisingly, Amazon is pushing back-to-school deals and trying to get a jump on this important spending event even though many schools will have just started summer break.
Target (TGT, $123.71) said this morning it will run a four-day Target Circle Deal Days savings event, also 6/23/26-6/26/26, and is also looking to capture early BTS spending with up to 45% off thousands of items across categories + early access for Target Circle 360, its paid membership tier.
- The base Target Circle loyalty program is free to join.
La-Z-Boy (LZB, $37.38) has completed the previously announced sale of it American Drew and Kincaid wholesale casegoods businesses to Banner House for an undisclosed amount and says the portfolio optimization will allow it to focus on its core, vertically-integrated NA upholstery biz.
Yesway (YSWY, $22.24) reported an upside 1Q26 (March), its first quarter as a public company, as inside merchandise comps increased 4.5%, comp fuel gallons sold increased 0.2%, total revs grew 14% to $683.6M, and adjusted EBITDA increased 113% y/y to $59.2M.
- Management also said "momentum has continued into the second quarter."
- Yesway is a TX-based gas/c-store operator with ~450 stores in nine states.
- The company went public in April and sold 14M shares at $20 per share.
ODDITY (ODD, $13.98), which owns the IL MAKIAGE, SpoiledChild and METHODIQ beauty brands, reported another very weak quarter -- 1Q26, ended March -- and continued to blame an "account dislocation with (its) largest advertising partner" as revs fell 26% y/y to $197.9M.
Leading Labels, a UK-based discount apparel retailer, is planning to close all 15 stores after appointing a liquidator, should be an opportunity for TJX's TK Maxx concept, which has 350+ stores across the UK, once the store liquidation sales are completed.
Swiss Watch Exports fell 17% y/y in value in April and incorporated a 56% y/y drop in exports to the US on the cycling of a pull-forward effect last year after President Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs, which contributed to a nearly 150% y/y increase in exports to the US in April 2025.
Filament Sciences, a Los Angeles-based premium haircare startup, raised $2M in a seed funding round at an undisclosed valuation led by family office Wittington Ventures.
Saks Global could exit Ch 11 next week acc'd to today's WWD, which says the company did $1.6B in sales from the filing in mid-January through the beginning of May, while net loss was $63M, including $470M of reorganization charges during the period.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Victoria's Secret has hired 10+ year Anthropologie merchandising exec Melissa Thompson-Charatz as Chief Merchandising Officer for its PINK brand, a new position at the company.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.31 on average across the US for the week ended 6/1/26, down a $0.17 from the prior week but up $1.18 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.35, down $0.17 on the week but up $1.90 from last year.
- Fuel prices are being driven up by supply constraints related to the war in Iran.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices are running well above the psychologically (and otherwise) important $4 per-gallon level, and this will likely have a meaningful impact on consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Out last Thursday, New Home Sales for April were weaker than expected and fell 6% m/m to an annualized 622K, well below the Street's 675K, while New Home Sales fell 11% from April 2025; the median selling price of a new home sold in April was $422,500, up 2% year-over-year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The housing market is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates opt to remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Also out Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/23/26 were close to expectations at a low 215K vs. the Street's 213K estimate and rose 5K from a revised 210K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose slightly, to 1.79M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Best Buy (BBY, $74.98) D.A. Davidson maintains a Buy rating and raises its target from $78 to $90 after meeting with management, says the company should continue to benefit from replacement and innovation cycles across several categories, including computing and home theater, which the firm believes comprise 40%-45% of total-company sales.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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