Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Prime Day wraps up today, Reformation confirms IPO plan, says it did $500M+ in revs last year, U. Mich. Sentiment improves slightly on a m/m basis as gas prices retreat, On planning push into soccer, France's Le Slip Francais going public...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Friday, June 26, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Prime Day Wrapping Up, Reformation Confirms IPO Plan, Sentiment Improves Slightly...
NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/29)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/30)
- Consumer Confidence for June at 10:00 am, Street at 94.7 vs. prior 93.1
- Nike reports 4Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $10.85B/$0.13
Wednesday (7/1)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
- ADP Employment for June at 8:15 am, Street at +92.5K vs. prior +122K
Thursday (7/2)
- Nonfarm Payrolls for June at 8:30 am, Street at +87.5K vs. prior +172K, Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings +0.3% m/m vs. prior +0.3%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/27/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 215K
- Bassett Furniture reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, no Street estimates
Friday (7/3)
- Independence Day observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.8% as of ~10:30 am vs. a slight decline in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks include CROX, which is up 6% on an analyst upgrade, also ODD (up 6%), WOOF (up 5%), DBI (up 5%) and RENT (up 4%).
- Weaker retail stocks include DLTH, BARK, TLYS, BRLT and BBBY, all down 1%-3%.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
We're not seeing anything market moving -- across retail -- this morning beyond the analyst calls below, but it is the final day of Amazon's four-day Prime Day event, and we should (soon) get another update from Adobe, which is forecasting 9% y/y growth in US online spending across retailers, or $26.3B total, when compared to the four days of Prime Day in July 2025.
- Numerator, which tracks Prime Day stats, will give its next update here at 4:00 pm today, and said in its update yesterday afternoon Amazon's average Prime Day 2026 order size was $45.94, down 16% from $54.78 at the same time during last year's four-day event.
- Average household spend was $121.26, down 13% from $139.71 at the same time LY.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Nike (NKE, $40.90) KeyBanc downgrades from Overweight to Sector Weight
- Crocs (CROX, $118.88) Piper Sandler upgrades from Neutral to Overweight
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
On Holding co-founder Olivier Bernhard said the brand plans to expand into soccer during an interview yesterday and called out its LightSpray shoemaking tech as a competitive advantage while noting On signed Swiss footballer Sydney Schertenleib as a collaborator last December.
Le Slip Francais, which makes (in France) and sells undergarments, bathing suits and socks and is known best for its men's boxer briefs, will go public in Paris in mid-July on the Euronext Growth market at EUR14.80 per share and raise EUR5M; the brand did EUR21M in sales last year.
Frasers Group (UK) said yesterday it will not raise its EUR38 per share offer, made earlier this month, to acquire the 73% of Germany's Hugo Boss it doesn't already own; the EUR38 per share offer implies a total equity value of EUR2.7B, or USD3.1B.
US Video Game hardware spending grew 38% y/y in May, to $249M, driven by sales of the Nintendo Switch 2, which more than offset a 40%+ decline in sales of the PlayStation 5, which have been negatively impacted by price increases, while accessories spending grew 8% y/y to $168M.
L.A.-based womenswear brand Reformation filed to go public, confirming a WSJ report, though it did not say how many shares it plans to sell or give a targeted price range. The company did $507M in revs last year, up 16% from 2024, and $45M in adjusted EBITDA, or 8.9% of revs. UK-based private equity firm Permira is majority owner. The stock will trade on the NYSE, ticker REF, and JPM, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and RBC are among the underwriters.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Chanel (France) has opened a 5K+ sf boutique in Palo Alto, CA, at the Stanford Shopping Center; it's Chanel's 25th standalone fashion boutique in the US.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 10:00 am, U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) was close to expectations at 49.5 and improved just a bit from the preliminary reading of 48.9, and it was also 10% better than May's final reading of 44.8 as consumer psychology improved with the recent decline in fuel prices.
- Consumers are also less concerned about the war in Iran's longer-term consequences.
- Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months are +4.6%, down from +4.8% in May.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The m/m improvement is noteworthy, but this is still the second-lowest reading on record; that said, the depressed sentiment does not appear to be holding consumers back based on the latest Retail Sales and what appears to be another strong Prime Day(s).
Out yesterday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 were better/lower than expected at 215K vs. the Street's 225K estimate and down 12K from a revised 227K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose by 21K to 1.82M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Also out yesterday, Personal Income for May was stronger than expected at +0.7% m/m vs. the Street's +0.5% estimate, and Personal Spending was also stronger than expected and increased 0.7% vs. the Street's +0.5%, while core inflation increased 3.4% y/y, highest since fall 2023.
- On a y/y basis, consumer spending increased 4.1%, the most since spring 2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Healthy income growth and strong consumer spending trends have continued, with support from an improving/tight labor market, stocks near record highs, and record home equity, which are more than offsetting the impact of higher gas prices and inflation.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Crocs (CROX, $118.88) Piper Sandler upgrades from Neutral to Overweight and raises its target from $95 to $150, says North American DTC sales inflected to +MSD% in the first quarter, best since 2Q25, and notes comparisons will ease through 2026, also says HEYDUDE is seeing some "green shoots," that it sees upside potential to Street estimates, and that the stock is "inexpensive."
Nike (NKE, $40.90) KeyBanc downgrades from Overweight to Sector Weight with no price target, says the company's turnaround it taking longer than it expected and has concerns about the outlook in China, EMEA, ongoing marketplace headwinds, and another c-suite transition with this week's announcement -- Matt Friend will be succeeded by Pfizer CFO Dave Denton in August.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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