Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Quiet morning in front of Nike's results this afternoon, Genesco 8.7% shareholder pushing for board change, Lands' End making a (surprise) CEO change, another Independence Day spending forecast, PetMed Express gets a new (lower) buyout offer...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Quiet in Front of Nike with Genesco Activism and Lands' End's CEO Change in Focus...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/29)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/30)
- Consumer Confidence for June at 10:00 am, Street at 94.4 vs. prior 93.1
- Nike reports 4Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $10.85B/$0.12
Wednesday (7/1)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
- ADP Employment for June at 8:15 am, Street at +92.5K vs. prior +122K
Thursday (7/2)
- Nonfarm Payrolls for June at 8:30 am, Street at +100K vs. prior +172K, Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings +3.5% y/y vs. prior +3.4%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/27/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 215K
- Bassett Furniture reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, no Street estimates
Friday (7/3)
- Independence Day observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 1.2% as of ~9:40 am vs. a 0.3% gain in the S&P 500.
- Weaker retail stocks include LE, which is down 15% on the (surprise) CEO change, also LVLU (down 11%), LANV (down 11%), DBI (down 5%) and KSS (down 5%).
- Stronger retail stocks include TLYS, OLLI, GROV, AKA and ODD, all up 2%-4%.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
70%+ of Americans plan to celebrate Independence Day this weekend, and 95% plan to make a holiday-related purchase acc'd to recent survey work by Numerator, which puts average holiday spending at $117 and total spending at $22B and notes 75% of those surveyed plan to do all or most of their July 4th shopping in-store, with Walmart leading in planned visits at 56%.
- Amazon is the #2 planned destination, at 26%, then Dollar Tree (21%) and Target (20%).
- 83% plan to purchase food, 44% plan to purchase alcoholic beverages, 33% plan to buy non-alcoholic beverages, 27% plan to buy decorations, and 23% plan to buy party supplies.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Genesco (GCO, $34.80) 8.7% shareholders the Radoff-Jumana Group published a presentation here in support of a push to remove directors Thurgood Marshall and Joanna Barsh and replace them with its nominees, former Stabilis Solutions CEO Westervelt Ballard and 25+ year capital markets exec Paula Poskon, says Marshall and Barsh have overseen a 50%+ decline in total shareholder return since joining the board in 2012 and 2013 and have purchased little to no GCO stock.
- The Group also notes Genesco has been challenged by activist investors three times in eight years and is critical of the recent hiring of America's CAR-MART CFO for the past 1.5 years and former Walmart Africa CFO and 13-year Walmart financial exec Jonathan Collins as CFO.
AI Traffic to US websites during Amazon's four-day Prime Day event last week increased nearly 90% y/y from the comparable days in July last year and converted at a rate that was 40% better than traffic from other channels acc'd to Adobe, which also said BNPL-related online spending grew 9.5% y/y to $2.1B, while BNPL orders accounted for 6.6% of all orders over the four days.
Under Armour is launching a new women-focused line in partnership with Chinese fashion designer Feng Chen Wang, will be called Rebel Daughter, multi-season, and launched globally at the end of this year acc'd to WWD, which says it's the "first time (Under Armour) has built a global strategy from China outward rather than exporting a U.S.-centric point of view."
Authentic Brands recently announced a long-term partnership with Premier Brands Group's subsidiary One Jeanswear Group to operate Lee in the US and Canada after the completion of its up to $1B acquisition of Lee from Kontoor Brands, expected to happen in the back half of 2026.
- One Jeanswear CEO Chris Waldeck is former Kontoor Brands President and Co-COO.
Harvey Nichols (UK, luxury dept store retailer) has appointed financial advisors to explore options, including a possible sale by owner Dickson Poon (Hong Kong) acc'd to Sky News, which notes the business is losing money and says Poon is looking for an exit 35 years after buying it for EUR53M.
- The company is considering investment partners as another possible option.
Correction: When discussing Saks Global's Ch 11 exit here yesterday we said the new company -- Exemplar Luxury Group -- has 59 stores after closings of most Saks OFF 5TH stores, all five Neiman Marcus Last Call stores, about half of the Saks Fifth Avenue stores, and three Neiman Marcus stores, but the official count is 49 after 100+ closings during bankruptcy and excluding Saks OFF 5TH.
- There are 33 Neiman Marcus stores, 15 Saks Fifth Avenue stores and two Bergdorf Goodman stores, which are being counted as one, and the 49 excludes the remaining 12 OFF 5TH stores, which will be used to clear certain inventory from the luxury portfolio.
PetMed Express rec'd another buyout offer from SilverCape, though at a lower price of $3.00/share vs a December 2025 price of $4.00/share, and says the board is reviewing the new offer. Shares of PETS are down 43% YTD and closed at $1.82 yesterday.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Vuori, which has ~150 stores globally, is planning to open 30 new stores this year acc'd to Bloomberg Businessweek, which recently interviewed founder and CEO Joe Kudla.
Consumer Cellular (cell phones/plans) recently opened its 100th company-owned store, in Salem, OR, is in 33 states, and plans to open 20 more stores by the end of this year.
T&T Supermarket (Canada, Asian grocer, has 40+ stores total, including three in the US) announced plans to open a 72,600 sf store in the San Francisco Bay area, in a former Macy's site in Newark, CA that has been vacant since March 2025, and the company is also planning stores in San Francisco and Millbrae, CA, as well as Chino Hills and Irvine in the Los Angeles area.
Primark, which is part of the UK's AB Foods, will open its seventh Texas store on 7/16/26, ~30K sf at Houston's Willowbrook Mall, and will open its first Indiana store on 7/23/26, ~30K sf at Castleton Square Mall in Indianapolis, will take Primark's total US store base to 44.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Lands' End CEO since 2022 and former American Eagle President and Chief Commercial Officer from 2016-2022, Urban Outfitters, Liz Claiborne and Gap exec Andrew McLean is stepping down as CEO and from the board in mid-July and will be succeeded by Thuma (furniture) Interim Chief Digital Officer since February 2026 and former FTD CEO and Samsonite and Tumi exec Charlie Cole.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 10:00 Consumer Confidence for June was weaker than expected at 91.2 vs. the Street's 94.4 estimate but increased slightly from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May, with the slight improvement in large part reflecting the recent decline in fuel prices and easing inflation concerns.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Depressed sentiment does not appear to be holding consumers back based on the latest Retail Sales and what appears to have been a strong Prime Day(s) event last week.
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $3.83 on average across the US for the week ended 6/29/26, down $0.08 from the prior week but up $0.67 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $4.67, down $0.16 on the week but up $0.94 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas in the $3.80 area is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $4.50+ per gallon is a headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Out last Friday, U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) was close to expectations at 49.5 and improved just a bit from the preliminary reading of 48.9, and it was also 10% better than May's final reading of 44.8 as consumer psychology improved with the recent decline in fuel prices.
- Consumers are also less concerned about the war in Iran's longer-term consequences.
- Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months are +4.6%, down from +4.8% in May.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The m/m improvement is noteworthy, but this is still the second-lowest reading on record; that said, the depressed sentiment does not appear to be holding consumers back based on the latest Retail Sales and what appears to be another strong Prime Day(s).
Out Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 were better/lower than expected at 215K vs. the Street's 225K estimate and down 12K from a revised 227K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose by 21K to 1.82M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
We're not seeing any upgrades/downgrades or otherwise actionable calls this morning...
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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