Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: A strong Prime Day, though right in line with expectations, GameStop guides for strong profit growth, still wants eBay, Casey's jumps to #2 in YTD store opening announcements, back-to-school shopping starting earlier and earlier...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Monday, June 29, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
A Strong Prime Day(s), GameStop Still Wants eBay, Our Store Openings/Closings...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/29)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/30)
- Consumer Confidence for June at 10:00 am, Street at 94.4 vs. prior 93.1
- Nike reports 4Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $10.85B/$0.12
Wednesday (7/1)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
- ADP Employment for June at 8:15 am, Street at +92.5K vs. prior +122K
Thursday (7/2)
- Nonfarm Payrolls for June at 8:30 am, Street at +100K vs. prior +172K, Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings +3.5% y/y vs. prior +3.4%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/27/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 215K
- Bassett Furniture reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, no Street estimates
Friday (7/3)
- Independence Day observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.8% as of ~11:15 am vs. a 0.7% gain in the S&P 500, which is higher after the US and Iran agree to end recent fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and restart peace talks. Retail stocks are underperforming after a strong week last week and as Adobe says US retail sales during Amazon's four-day Prime Day event last week met expectations.
- Weaker retail stocks include CURV, DBI, GAP, ODD and BOOT, all down 6%-8%.
- Stronger retail stocks include SPWH, which is up 7%, also BRLT (up 7%), CHWY (up 5%), MNSO (up 5%, new stock buyback program) and AMZN (up 4%, successful Prime Day).
Last Week: The XRT rose 2.7% vs. a 2.0% decline in the S&P 500, which was hit by concerns about tech/AI stock valuations and about potential Fed rate hikes after another "hot" inflation reading with the PCE index for May. Retail stocks outperformed as Adobe forecast 9% y/y growth in US online sales, to $26.3B, over the four days of Amazon Prime Day vs. the comparable days last year, and then said sales were better than expected on day one. Other noteworthy retail developments included Reformation's IPO filing for an offering that could happen in July, Walmart's acquisition of French connected TV advertising platform Vibe.co for an estimated $1.4B, and a Reuters report saying Alo is "primed for a public offering or sale." Also, Nike announced a CFO succession, and the UK's EG Group (owns Cumberland Farms) filed to go public in the US.
- Stronger retail stocks included BOBS, which rose 20% on the week as furniture stocks got a boost from falling oil prices, also LOVE (up 17%, same dynamic + insider buying), ARHS (up 16%, same dynamic), TDUP (up 15%) and AKA (up 15%).
- Weaker retail stocks included PLCE, which fell 18% on the week on no news as far as we can tell, also BARK (down 15%, same), BABA (down 11%), NKE (down 10%, analyst downgrades and caution going into quarterly results) and PRPL (down 9%).
2026 Year-to-Date: The XRT is up 4.0% vs. a 7.4% gain in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks include TLYS, which is up 106%, also DLTH (up 103%), CURV (up 102%), VNCE (up 90%) and VSXY (up 63%).
- Weaker retail stocks include DBGI, which is down 94%, also ODD (down 63%), RENT (down 59%), BBW (down 49%) and CHWY (down 44%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- As expected, discounts were similar to last year and included 20% or more off electronics, apparel and toys, and this contributed to strong y/y gains across those categories.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The strong growth is consistent with other recent spending indicators, including Retail Sales for May, which showed 7% y/y growth, and the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales up 7% y/y in May, and it also highlights consumer interest in shopping back-to-school and other events/holidays earlier and earlier to take advantage of deals/promos.
- GameStop said its EBITDA forecast takes into account its current expectations and its assumptions around consumer demand, supply chain conditions, cost initiative execution, store operations and various other company operating factors.
- GameStop also said its leadership is still focused on pursuing an acquisition of much-larger eBay, despite eBay's firm rejection of GameStop's $125 per share offer, or $55.5B.
- GameStop said add'l materials related to the proposed transaction will be forthcoming.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: GameStop generally does not provide any financial guidance, and the anticipated 70%+ y/y growth in adjusted EBITDA does highlight a business that is fundamentally performing much better, and this, along with CEO Ryan Cohen's recently-amended compensation package, strengthens the case for a GameStop + eBay combination; that said, most investors are going to continue to view the proposed acquisition as a non-starter.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Casey's (CASY, $778.63) BMO upgrades from Market Perform to Outperform
- Warby Parker (WRBY, $29.24) BofA initiates coverage with a Buy rating
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
Back-to-school shopping is starting earlier and earlier, driven in part by the continued growth in Amazon's Prime Day and competitor promotional events, and 32% of BTS shoppers had already begun browsing and purchasing BTS items by early June acc'd to NRF, which says the 32% is up significantly from 26% last year and the highest since the question was first posed in 2018.
- NRF's survey indicated a higher interest in early shopping by Gen Z + Millennial consumers, 44% of whom said they had rec'd school lists by early-June, up from 38% last year.
Retailers are rushing to ship Halloween and holiday 2026 imports to get ahead of new tariffs that go into effect at the end of July and a new round of fuel surcharges expected to be put in place in the coming weeks to help shippers offset the impact of higher fuel prices, which have driven a three-fold increase since February in the cost to ship a container from China to the US West Coast.
- That's acc'd to the WSJ, which cites Xeneta data that puts the average cost to ship a 40-foot container from China to the US West Coast at $5,933, the highest rate since September 2024, and also notes a Xeneta forecast suggesting another 30% rise in cost before the peak.
- While the Trump administration's IEEPA tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year and are in the process of being refunded, the administration is expected to implement higher tariffs under a different legal mechanism at the end of July.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Saks Global emerged from Ch 11 Friday after nearly five months and said it has reduced its debt by ~75% as part of the restructuring, that it will now operate as Exemplar Luxury Group, and that its reconstituted board includes two reps each from Pentwater Capital Management and Bracebridge Capital Management, which have provided financing and now own the company.
- ELG now has 49 department stores, including 33 Neiman Marcus stores, 15 Saks Fifth Avenue stores and two Bergdorf Goodman stores, which are being counted as one.
Kroger has modified its loyalty program and now lets members use points for discounts on groceries -- $1 off, in-store or online, for every 100 pts earned, with a daily cap of $10 -- in addition to fuel, for which members can save $0.10/gallon for every 100 pts, with a limit or $1/gallon.
Body and haircare brand Saltair is exploring a possible sale acc'd to today's WWD, which says owner The Center is looking at deal options for the brand after the successful sale of Naturium and Phlur and puts Saltair's estimated 2026 sales at $150M. WWD also says The Center is working with Raymond James and that initial bids for Saltair are due soon. Saltair launched in 2022 and is sold at Target, Ulta and Amazon. The Center is based in L.A. and backed by Prelude Growth.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Boll & Branch, a digitally native retailer of luxury organic bedding, sheets and towels, opened a new store in suburban Detroit last Friday, at the Somerset Collection in Troy, MI.
YETI, which has 25+ company-owned stores in the US, will open a new store in Spain on Thursday, at 51 Carrer Pontevedra in Barcelona's Barceloneta neighborhood, will follow the recent opening of a 1,600 sf store in Munich, at Georg-Kronawitter-Platz 2.
Ruti, a CA-based women's apparel brand with five stores in CA, has opened a NYC flagship, 1,250 sf at 1100 Madison Avenue on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Genesco has hired America's CAR-MART CFO for the past 1.5 years and former Walmart Africa CFO and 13-year Walmart financial exec Jonathan Collins as CFO, starts in early-August and succeeds Sandra Harris, who left the company in March to pursue other opportunities.
STORE OPENING/CLOSING ANALYSIS
Significant YTD Announcements
So far this year, US retailers have announced plans to open/close ~3,610/~3,225 stores by our analysis, which covers all sectors except auto retail and excludes opening/closing announcements that were made in 2025 and prior but will carry over into 2026 and beyond.
The numbers this time last week were ~3,465/~3,225, and this time last year we tracked ~3,235/~3,955 YTD announced openings/closings.
For all of 2025, we tracked ~5,525 announced store openings, down 20% from 2024, and ~4,820 announced store closings, down 45% from 2024.
Note that openings/closings are specific numbers that have been announced, not completed, and could extend over several years.
Also note we include select non-US retailers (e.g. ALDI, POP MART, Lululemon) in our totals and small numbers of openings/closings if it's a significant development (e.g. digitally-native brands opening their first stores, highlighted below with an asterisk*), that we don't count concessions, pop-ups, seasonal stores, pilots, JV/partner-operated stores, acquired stores, or conversions, and that our closing tally excludes closings that are part of an ongoing business plan.
Latest Store Opening Announcements: Casey's held its 2026 Investor Day in NYC last week and announced plans to "add" 400+ new stores over the next three years via new builds and acquisitions, and we are assuming half of the stores are new builds and including 200 "new" stores in our totals after previously including 60 new stores in our totals to reflect the company's prior plan to open at least 120 new stores in its FY27, which ends in August 2027.
Also last week, Target said it will open 11 new stores near the end of July, in Mesa, AZ, Perris, CA, Firestone, CO, Lake Nona, FL, Frankfort, KY, Springfield, MA, Seneca, SC, Brookings, SD, Forney and Little Elm, TX, and Logan, UT, all will be 125K+ sf and are part of a plan to open 30+ new stores this year, True Religion, which has 57 US stores, announced plans to open four new stores through the balance of 2026, in Indianapolis, Brandon, FL, Sacramento and Cherry Hill, NJ, and Addison Bay, a Philadelphia-based digitally native women's activewear brand, said it will open its fourth retail store in September, 3,600 sf, on Knox Street in Dallas.
Latest Store Closing Announcements: There were no significant announcements last week.
- Dollar Gen (~450 on ~20,900 note)
- Casey's (400+ on 2,900+ note)
- Dollar Tree (~400 on 9,282)
- O'Reilly (225-235 net on 6,585 note)
- 7-Eleven NA (200+ on 13K+)
- ALDI U.S. (180+ on 2,600+ note)
- Five Below (~150 net on 1,921)
- TJX (146 net on 5,200+ globally)
- Yesway (130 on ~450)
- Academy Sports (~125 on 322 note)
- Burlington (115 net on 1,212)
- Ross Stores (110 on 1,900+)
- Kroger (105-120 on ~2,800)
- Goodwill (100+ on ~3,400)
- Whole Foods (100 on 550+)
- Tractor Supply (~100 on ~2,400 note)
- Sheetz (100 on 830+)
- Paymore (90+ on 100+)
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet (75 on 645)
- Boot Barn (70 on 539)
- Citi Trends (~65 on 590+)
- Bath & Body Wks (60+ net on 2,500)
- CVS (~60 on ~9K note)
- Barnes & Noble (60 on 670)
- Urban Outfitters (54 on 784 owned)
- Levi Strauss (50-60 net on 3,400+)
- Ulta Beauty (50-60 net on 1,591)
- Build-A-Bear (50+ net on 660+ note)
- Abercrombie (50 on 829 owned)
- Warby Parker* (50 on 323)
- Perfumania (43 on 280+)
- Advance Auto (40-45 on 4,300+)
- Lululemon (40-45 net owned on 811)
- Aerie and OFFLINE (~40 on 330+)
- Fabletics* (40 on 120)
- Dick's House of Sport (32 on 35 note)
- Grocery Outlet (30-33 net on 570)
- Target (30+ on ~2K note)
- Trader Joe's (30+ on 600+)
- Birkenstock Amer (30 net on ~15)
- Ernesta* (26 on 4)
- Fleet Feet + Marathon (~25 on 310+)
- Genesco (23 on 1,236)
- Nordstrom Rack (23 in 2026 on ~300)
- Dick's Field House (22 on 42 note)
- POP MART (20+ on 60+)
- Walmart U.S. (~20 on 4,600+ note)
- Love's Travel Stops (20 on ~670)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 on 512)
- Floor & Decor (20 on 270)
- Bob's Discount Furn (~20 on 209)
- Kendra Scott (20 on ~170 note)
- HEYDUDE (~20 mostly outlets on 75)
- Cotopaxi* (20 on 20)
- Bu-cee's (17 announced on ~55)
- Home Depot (~15 on 2,359)
- Windsor (15 on ~350)
- Golf Galaxy (~15 on 113)
- UNIQLO USA (14 on 78)
- Aritzia (12-13 mostly US on 144 total)
- Caleres (12 on ~820)
- Shoe Carnival/Station (11-15 on 426)
- The Buckle (11-13 net on 440)
- Advance Mega Hub (10-15 on 33)
- Garage (10-12 net on 300)
- Signet Jewelers (up to 10 on 2,582)
- Publix (~10 on 1,400+)
- La-Z-Boy (10 on 380 total N America)
- Cato (up to 10 on 1,070)
- IKEA US (10 on 54)
- Vivaia* (10 on 1)
- Lovesac (8 net on 278)
- a.k.a.'s Princess Polly* (8 on 13 US)
- Salomon (7-10 on 2 US)
- Purple (7 on 55)
- BYLT* (7 on 15)
- Haverty Furniture (6 net on 129)
- Big Y (6 on 77)
- RH (6 on 75)
- Wayfair* (6 on 2 note)
- Zumiez (5 US on 716 total worldwide)
- Boll & Branch* (5 on 15)
- Whole Foods Daily Market (5 on 5)
- Kurt Geiger London (5 on 5 US)
- Arhaus (4-6 on 107)
- U.S. Polo Assn. (4 on 1,200+)
- Food Lion (4 on 1,100+)
- Best Buy (4 net US on 1K+ in NA)
- Tilly's (4 on 224)
- Ocean State Job Lot (4 on 175)
- Vera Bradley Outlet (4 on 87)
- True Religion (4 on 57)
- Chair King (4 on 52)
- FIGS* (4 on 5)
- Ana Luisa* (4 on 2)
- Joybird* (3-4 on 16)
- Meijer (3 on 500+)
- Madewell (3 on ~150)
- Bassett Furniture (3 on 86)
- Albertsons' Tom Thumb (3 on ~70)
- Brilliant Earth* (3 on 42)
- Suitsupply (3 US on ~40 US)
- Whole Foods Mkt Daily Shop (3 on 8)
- Brochu Walker (3 on 5)
- BRUNT Workwear (3 on 0)
- CardVault by Tom Brady (2 on 10)
- Yellow Rose Kendra Scott* (2 on 3)
- Amazon* Big Box (2 on 0)
- Cider* (2 on 0)
- J.Jill (1-5 net on 256)
- Thursday Boot Company* (1 on 4)
- Revolve* (1 on 2)
- Povision* (1 on 0)
- Addison Bay* (1 on 3)
- GameStop (700+ US of 2,300+ note)
- 7-Eleven NA (645 of 13K+)
- Francesca's (450+ of 450+)
- Family Dollar (350+ of 7,450+)
- Eddie Bauer US + Can (~175 of ~175)
- Signet Jewelers (~100 of 2,582)
- Value City Furniture (79 of 79)
- Dollar Tree (~75 of 9,282)
- Genesco (75 of 1,236)
- West Marine (59 of 250+)
- Saks OFF 5TH (57 of 69)
- Amazon Fresh (57 of 57)
- Cato (up to 40 of 1,070)
- Grocery Outlet (36 of 570)
- CVS (~35 of ~9K note)
- Zumiez (26 of 716 total worldwide)
- American Eagle (20-25 AE of 805 AE)
- Abercrombie (20 of 829 owned)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 of 512)
- Allbirds* US full-price (~20 of ~20)
- Urban Outfitters (19 of 784 owned)
- Shoe Carnival/Station (18-24 of 426)
- Saks Fifth Avenue full-line (18 of 33)
- Petco (15-20 net of 1,382)
- Caleres (15 of ~820)
- Fossil (15 of 199)
- Amazon Go (15 of 15)
- Albertsons (14 net of 2,200+)
- Ross Stores (10-15 of 1,900+)
- Amer. Signature Furniture (10 of 10)
- Tilly's (6 of 224)
- Sportsman's Warehouse (5 of ~150)
- Neiman Marcus Last Call (5 of 5)
- Neiman Marcus full-line (4 of 36)
- Apple US retail (3 of ~270)
- Vince (3 net of 60)
- Nordstrom (2 of ~90 full-line)
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out Friday, U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) was close to expectations at 49.5 and improved just a bit from the preliminary reading of 48.9, and it was also 10% better than May's final reading of 44.8 as consumer psychology improved with the recent decline in fuel prices.
- Consumers are also less concerned about the war in Iran's longer-term consequences.
- Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months are +4.6%, down from +4.8% in May.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The m/m improvement is noteworthy, but this is still the second-lowest reading on record; that said, the depressed sentiment does not appear to be holding consumers back based on the latest Retail Sales and what appears to be another strong Prime Day(s).
Out Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 were better/lower than expected at 215K vs. the Street's 225K estimate and down 12K from a revised 227K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose by 21K to 1.82M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Also out Thursday, Personal Income for May was stronger than expected at +0.7% m/m vs. the Street's +0.5% estimate, and Personal Spending was also stronger than expected and increased 0.7% vs. the Street's +0.5%, while core inflation increased 3.4% y/y, highest since fall 2023.
- On a y/y basis, consumer spending increased 4.1%, the most since spring 2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Healthy income growth and strong consumer spending trends have continued, with support from an improving/tight labor market, stocks near record highs, and record home equity, which are more than offsetting the impact of higher gas prices and inflation.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Casey's (CASY, $778.63) BMO upgrades from Market Perform to Outperform and maintains its $950 target after meeting with management, views the recent pullback in the stock -- down 6% since last week's 2026 Investor Day in NYC -- as a good buying opportunity and says Casey's competitive moat is widening, supported by growing price gaps in prepared food, while the three-year 8%-10% EBITDA growth algorithm discussed at the event is conservative.
Warby Parker (WRBY, $29.24) BofA initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $33 target, says Warby has disrupted the eyewear industry and is evolving from a lifestyle brand to a full service optical retailer, also says it sees upside potential to EBITDA margin expansion targets.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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