Wednesday, July 29, 2026

July 29, 2026

Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: VF reports largely in-line quarter but with continued weakness at Vans, more sequential acceleration in luxury with Kering and Hermes, Nordstrom Rack capitalizing on Saks Global's store closings, Vida Shoes has acquired Donald Pliner...

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DoR Consumer Research

Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer

Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET

Vans Is Still a Problem, More Sequential Acceleration in Luxury, Nordstrom Rack Capitalizing...

THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR

UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern

Monday (7/27) 

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
  • Walmart doing investor meetings in NYC, hosted by KeyBanc
  • LVMH reports 2Q26, call at noon, Street at sales of EUR19.38B, down slightly y/y

Tuesday (7/28)

  • Consumer Confidence for July at 10:00 am, Street at 92.1 vs. prior 91.2
  • Kering reports 2Q26, call at noon, Street at sales of EUR3.63B, down 2% y/y

Wednesday (7/29)

  • Hermes reports 2Q26, call 3:00 am ET, Street at sales of EUR4.06B, up 4% y/y
  • VF Corporation reports 1Q27, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.64B/($0.22)
  • Retail Marketing Society monthly webinar at noon, topic is Gen Z and Gen Alpha spending trends, DoRCR will open the event with a brief macro/consumer update, info here
  • FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm, investors expect no change in the 3.50%-3.75% target
  • O'Reilly reports 2Q26 after the close, Street at comps up 5.4%, EPS of $0.86
  • Boot Barn reports 1Q27, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 3.5%, EPS of $1.69
  • Sprouts reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps down 1.0%, EPS of $1.34
  • Ethan Allen reports 4Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $148.7M/$0.34

Thursday (7/30)

  • Jobless Claims for the week ended 7/25/26 at 8:30 am, no Street estimate yet, prior 187K
  • Personal Income/Spend for June 8:30 am, Street +0.3%/+0.5% m/m, prior +0.7%/+0.7%
  • Gildan Activewear reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.61B/$1.12
  • Crocs reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.15B/$4.35
  • Steven Madden reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $635.4M/$0.32
  • Canada Goose reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of C$108.4M/(C$0.99)
  • Adidas reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of EUR6.60B/EUR2.39
  • O'Reilly 2Q26 call at 11:00 am
  • Reformation IPO after the close, NYSE, ticker REF, 14.1M shares at $15-$17 per share
  • Amazon reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $197.04B/$1.82
  • Floor & Decor reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps down 3.6%, EPS of $0.57
  • Columbia reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $607.0M/($0.39)

Friday (7/31)

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
  • U. Mich. Sentiment for July (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 54.4 vs. prior 54.4

**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**

TODAY'S EARLY TRADING

The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.4% as of ~10:55 am vs. a 0.8% decline in the S&P 500.

  • Weaker retail stocks include VFC, which is down 17% after soft quarterly results, also W (down 6%), SGI (down 6%), CPRI (down 6%) and FOSL (down 5%).
  • Stronger retail stocks include RCKY, which is up 15% after results, also volatile DBGI (up 6%), MNSO (up 4%), ACI (up 4%, insider buying) and SFM (up 3% in front of results).

MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS

All Stock Prices as of Last Close

VF Corporation (VFC, $18.25) had a soft 1Q27 (June), though revs were a bit better than expected and were flat y/y on an ex-Dickies, constant-currency basis after a +3% increase in the fourth quarter, while the adjusted operating loss of ($94.5M) was bigger than last year's ($59.8M) but essentially in line with estimates; mgmt bumped up full-year rev guidance and maintained op margin.

  • VF also said CFO since mid-2024 and former Spotify CFO and Barclays MD Paul Vogel is stepping down as CFO and will be succeeded by VF Chief Operating Officer since 2025 Abhishek Dalmia, who will serve as both Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer.
  • Total revs were $1.67B vs. the Street's $1.64B estimate and incorporated 5% growth in global DTC sales, 4% growth in the Americas ex Dickies and in constant currencies, 4% growth at The North Face, a 9% decrease at Vans, and 3% growth at Timberland.
  • Note VF sold Dickies to Bluestar Alliance last fall for a base purchase price of $600M cash.
  • By region, ex-Dickies, constant-currency revs grew 4% in the Americas, fell 7% in EMEA, and declined 1% in APAC, and by channel, DTC sales grew 5%, and Wholesale fell 4%.
  • Vans Americas DTC business continued to grow, but this was more than offset by declines in Vans global Wholesale, which mgmt expects to improve "significantly" in fiscal 2H27.
  • Adjusted gross margin excluding Dickies increased 10 bps y/y, while adjusted operating margin ex Dickies was (5.7%), down 210 bps from last year's first quarter.
  • Inventories look fine and were down 4% ex-Dickies and in constant currency.
  • FY27 guidance includes constant-currency revenue growth of +2% from FY26's $9.30B when excluding Dickies and an adjusted op margin of ~8% vs. 7.0% in FY26 ex Dickies.
  • Prior full-year revenue guidance was for 1%-2% growth in constant currency, while adjusted operating margin guidance is unchanged, as is free cash flow and leverage guidance.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Vans continues to be VF's problem child, and while the growth in Americas DTC is encouraging, the Wholesale weakness highlights ongoing challenges regaining relevance at department stores and across 3P online channels; guidance calls for Vans' 2Q27 revs to look like the first quarter, implying another 9% decline, and then for a 2% ("or better") decline in 2H27.

Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:

  • BJ's Wholesale (BJ, $97.16) Gordon Haskett upgrades from Hold to Buy

INDUSTRY INSIGHT

Amazon/Whole Foods gained 0.6 ppts of grocery share over the 12 months ended June acc'd to new data from Numerator, which put Costco at #2 with 0.4 ppts of share gain, and Walmart at #3 with a 0.3 ppts gain, and also put Sam's Club and Albertsons at the bottom of the list, with share losses of 0.5 ppts and 0.2 ppts, and Publix, H-E-B, Target and Dollar General in the middle.

  • Share gains are being driven in part by growth in online order delivery through membership programs and a growing consumer focus on value amid persistent inflation.
  • The data also show a continued share loss by more traditional supermarkets like Albertsons, Wakefern, Kroger and Ahold as hard discounters and/or retailers with well-developed, value-focused private labels (e.g. Aldi and Trader Joe's) continue to add stores.
Numerator

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

Kering's (France) 2Q26 (June) revs of EUR3.65B were in line with Street estimates and grew 2% y/y on a comparable basis after a flat first quarter and incorporated continued strong performance in North America, up 9%, and 2% growth in Japan, which more than offset weaker performance in Western Europe, down 2% on fewer tourists from Asia and Japan, and continued softness in China.

  • This is Kering's first increase in comparable sales in three years.
  • Gucci's comparable revs improved sequentially and decreased 2% y/y after an 8% decline in 1Q26 and reflected a return to growth in leather goods + North America strength.
  • Kering Jewelry revs grew 18% on a comp basis, while Eyewear increased 8%.

Hermes (France) also reported in-line 2Q26 (June) revs, of EUR4.1B, up 7% y/y at constant exchange rates, a slight sequential acceleration from the first quarter's +6%, and were also driven by continued strong performance in the US -- revs in the Americas increased 15% -- and by good growth in Japan, up 11%, while Europe revs ex-France grew 9%, and France revs grew 2%, better than 1Q26.

  • Sales fell 4% in the "Other" area, which is mostly the Middle East, though management also noted a gradual recovery in trends since the first quarter.
  • Performance was also softer in Asia, excluding Japan, up 2%, and this appears to be why the stock is taking a hit in Paris -- concerns about Hermes' China growth outlook.
  • Sales increased 10% in Leather Goods and Saddlery and in Silk and Textiles.

Rocky Brands (RCKY, $42.73) had a strong 2Q26 (June) and grew sales 12% y/y to $118.4M vs. the Street's $110.1M after +9% growth in the first quarter, noted double-digit increases in several of its brands, led by XTRATUF, then Georgia Boot and Rocky, and its Lehigh safety shoe business, and said strong bookings in the quarter will contribute to Wholesale segment momentum in 2H26.

  • Wholesale sales increased 8% to $78.8M, Retail sales increased 22% to $36.2M.
  • 2Q26 earnings benefited from recognition of actual + expected IEEPA tariff refunds.

DSW (Designer Brands) has launched same-day delivery via Target's Shipt, through the Shipt app and on Shipt.com, from ~450 of the company's ~500 stores nationwide.

  • A Shipt membership is $99 per year, or $10.99 per month, and includes unlimited deliveries for orders of $35 or more, and a delivery fee of $7 for orders under $35.
  • Non-members can pay a flat $10 fee for Shipt to deliver their orders.

Dollar Tree customers can now use SNAP/EBT payments to shop for 1K+ eligible items for delivery by DoorDash in less than an hour, on average, after adding the SNAP info to the DoorDash app.
Frasers Group (UK) is continuing a broad, global investment spree and now owns a stake in Burberry (UK) worth a potential 4.2% of the voting rights -- up from a prior 3.1% -- acc'd to regulatory docs filed yesterday, which disclosed Frasers' sale of put options in Burberry's stock.

NYC-based Vida Shoes has acquired Donald Pliner -- women's and men's footwear, also NYC -- for an undisclosed amount and plans to keep the brand's identity and premium positioning while investing in innovation, digital commerce, consumer engagement, etc.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Nordstrom Rack is planning to open 20 new stores by early-November and has announced six new stores and one relocation so far for 2027 as it capitalizes on the closing of most of the 57 Saks OFF 5TH stores and all five of the Neiman Marcus Last Call stores, CSA piece here.
Birkenstock (Germany) has opened its 21st and 22nd owned retail stores in the US, in Boulder, CO at Twenty Ninth Street Mall, and in West Palm Beach, FL, at CityPlace.

MANAGEMENT UPDATES

BARK has hired Laird Superfood CFO since 2022 and former longtime Danone financial exec Anya Hamill as CFO, starts in early September and will succeed Zahir Ibrahim, who left BARK in April and has been replaced on an interim basis by VP, Accounting and Controller Brian Dostie.
VF Corporation CFO since mid-2024 and former Spotify CFO and Barclays Managing Director Paul Vogel is stepping down as CFO and will be succeeded by VF Chief Operating Officer since 2025, VF exec since 2024, and former BCG, Lululemon and Dell exec Abhishek Dalmia on 8/1/26.

MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT

Out yesterday, Consumer Confidence for July was weaker than expected at 90.8 vs. the Street's 92.1 estimate and down from a revised 92.2 in June as consumers' assessment of current business conditions and the current labor market deteriorated a bit amid concerns about high fuel prices and continued concerns about the cumulative impact of inflation in food and grocery.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Weak confidence hasn't kept consumers from spending, so it's best not to read too much into this indicator, or into U. Mich. Sentiment, but for what it's worth, all five of the U. Mich. index components improved in early-July, and the rise was demographically broad-based.

Also out yesterday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.10 on average across the US for the week ended 7/27/26, up $0.10 from the prior week and up $0.97 per gallon from the same week last year.

  • A gallon of diesel cost $5.31, up $0.18 on the week and up $1.51 from last year.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Fuel prices are climbing again with the end of the US/Iran ceasefire and the continued (effective) shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, and while consumers have been weathering recent volatility -- retail sales were strong in June, Prime Day did well, etc. -- higher gas and diesel prices are a headwind to discretionary spending and retailers' transport costs.

Out last Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 7/18/26 were well below expectations at 187K vs. the Street's 215K estimate, down 22K from a revised 209K the prior week, and the lowest level since the late 1960's, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag and indicate how long it's taking those out of work to find new jobs, decreased slightly from the prior week, to 1.80M.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
CCI

SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS

BJ's Wholesale (BJ, $97.16) Gordon Haskett upgrades from Hold to Buy and raises its target from $90 to $115 in front of upcoming 2Q26 (July) results the third week of August, says its early reads on the company's new store performance in the new market of Texas have been encouraging, also sees upside to full-year comp guidance and thinks the stock's valuation is more attractive now.

Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here

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