Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Ulta reports strong 1Q26, but investors focus on potential moderation, Macy's turning things around under CEO Spring, Ollie's defensive model serving it well, GameStop's strong quarter and $2B stock buyback, our latest M&A + Cap Mkts Analysis...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Wednesday, June 3, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Strong Results from Ulta, Macy's and GameStop and Our Monthly M&A + Cap Mkts Analysis...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/1)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- The RealReal doing an investor meeting at 10:30 am, hosted by BTIG
Tuesday (6/2)
- TD Cowen Annual Future of the Consumer Conference thru Weds, list of retailers here
- Baird Global Consumer, Tech and Services Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- William Blair Annual Growth Stock Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- Deutsche Bank Global Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- Steve Madden doing investor meetings in NYC today with TAG, tomorrow with BTIG
- Victoria's Secret reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 11.4%, EPS of $0.32
- Signet Jewelers reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 1.8%, EPS of $1.38
- Yesway reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $678.3M/$0.48
- ODDITY reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $187.9M/($0.03)
- Dollar General reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 2.0%, EPS of $1.89
- Citi Trends reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, prelim comps up 13.9%, EPS expected at $0.32
- GameStop reports 1Q26 results after the close, no call, no Street estimates
- Ulta Beauty reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 4.7%, EPS of $6.89
- Sportsman's WH reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 1.1%, EPS of ($0.54)
Wednesday (6/3)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
- Macy's reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.4%, EPS of $0.03
- ADP Employment for May at 8:15 am, Street at +120K vs. prior +109K
- Ollie's reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 1.6%, EPS of $0.87
- Rent the Runway reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, no Street estimates
- Destination XL reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps down 2.0%, EPS of ($0.07)
- PVH reports 1Q26 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $2.00B/$1.82
- Costco reports May sales at 4:15 pm
- Petco reports 1Q26, call 4:15 pm, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.02
- Five Below reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 19.6%, EPS of $1.77
- Tilly's reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 19.0%, EPS of ($0.33)
Thursday (6/4)
- Buckle reports May sales before the open
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/30/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 211K vs. prior 215K
- PVH 1Q26 conference call at 9:00 am
- Walmart Annual Shareholders' Meeting, starts at 9:30 am
- Caleres reports 1Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.34
- Lululemon reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps down 0.2%, EPS of $1.68
- Torrid reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps down 3.8%, EPS of ($0.01)
- Zumiez reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 2.0%, EPS of ($0.81)
Friday (6/5)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- Nonfarm Payrolls for May at 8:30 am, Street at +105K vs. prior +115K, Unemployment expected at 4.3% vs. prior 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings at +0.4% m/m vs. prior +0.2%
- G-III Apparel reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $529.1M/($0.30)
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.8% as of ~10:55 am vs. a 0.4% decline in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are underperforming a bit, though we're not seeing a specific catalyst and note the latest round of first quarter earnings from Ulta, Macy's and others came in better than expected.
- Weaker retail stocks include VSXY, which is down 8% on two analyst downgrades after yesterday's 47% jump, also SNBR (down 8%), CURV (down 6%), ULTA (down 6%, upside quarter but guided for sequential moderation) and BBBY (down 5%).
- Stronger retail stocks include volatile DBGI, which is up 26%, also SPWH (up 12%, upside results), GME (up 7%, strong 1Q26 + new $2B stock buyback), YSWY (up 5%) and ODD (up 5% after yesterday's pounding and despite two analyst downgrades).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Comps were driven by a 3.7% increase in average ticket and a 1.6% increase in transactions, while total sales increased 11% y/y to $3.16B on the comp, the mid-2025 acquisition of Space NK, new store expansion, and broad-based growth across channels and categories.
- EPS were $7.74 vs. $6.70 last year and the Street's $6.89 estimate and incorporated 100 bps of gross margin improvement and 90 bps of SG&A de-leverage on strategic investments and higher store expense, partially offset by advertising expense leverage.
- Inventories look good and were up 13% y/y at the end of the quarter on product to support new brand launches, Space NK, investments in key categories, and new stores.
- FY26 guidance includes comps up 2.5%-3.5% vs. the Street's +3.5% estimate, total sales growth of 6%-7% from FY25's $12.39B, operating income growth of 6.5%-9% from FY25's $1.53B, and EPS of $28.36-$28.80 vs. $25.80 in FY25 and a prior $28.05-$28.55.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: A strong report overall, even with ongoing expense pressures, suggests Ulta continues to gain market share in the beauty category even as competition with Walmart, Target, Amazon and DTC online pure-plays intensifies, and also suggests general category resilience despite cumulative inflation impacts on discretionary consumer spending.
- Consolidated comps increased 3.0% vs. the Street's +1.4% estimate and incorporated "go-forward" comps of +3.1%, Macy's "Reimagine 200" comps of +2.4%, Bloomingdale's comps of +10.2%, and Bluemercury comps of +6.4%, and total sales grew 2% y/y to $4.68B.
- Adjusted EPS were $0.13 vs. $0.11 last year and the Street's $0.03 and incorporated 30 bps of gross margin pressure, including a 30 bps negative impact from tariffs, also strong growth in credit card revs, up 12% y/y to $172M on "the company's healthy credit portfolio."
- Inventories look fine/good and were up 4% y/y at the end of the quarter.
- FY26 guidance includes comps of +0.5%-1.2% vs. a prior (0.5%)-0.5%, total sales of $21.50B-$21.75B vs. $21.76B in FY25, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.7%-7.9% vs. 7.9% last year, and adjusted EPS of $2.00-$2.20 vs. $2.15 in FY25 and a prior $1.90-$2.10.
- On the Call, Macy's said its core middle- to upper-income customer has continued to be resilient to macro uncertainty and noted its differentiation in product, assortment, events and marketing campaigns as a key driver of customer engagement and spending.
- Macy's also said 2Q26 has started out strong and supports the higher guidance.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Mall-oriented Macy's is doing much better than Kohl's, which comped down 1.1% in 1Q26 on top of (3.9%) in 1Q25, as M benefits from new leadership, ongoing investments in its go-forward stores, and strong performance at Bloomingdale's, which should continue to pick up new vendors and new customers as Saks Global struggles/repositions/downsizes.
- Comps were driven mostly by a higher average ticket, while total sales grew 14% y/y to $658.9M on the comp and 15% growth in the store base, to 672 in 35 states.
- Ollie's Army (loyalty) grew by 13% y/y in the quarter, and ending count was 17.5M.
- Adjusted EPS were $0.91 vs. $0.75 in 1Q25 and the Street's $0.87 and incorporated an 80 bps increase in gross margin on lower supply chains costs + a slightly higher merch margin.
- Ollie's opened a record 86 new stores in FY25 and grew the base by 15% after 9% growth in FY24, and the plans still call for 75 new stores this year, which implies 12% y/y growth.
- FY26 guidance include comps up ~2%, total sales of $2.98B-$3.00B vs. $2.65B in FY25, and adjusted EPS of $4.45-$4.55 vs. $3.86 in FY25 and the Street's $4.44 estimate.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Ollie's has a defensive model with its high-value assortment, limited impact from tariffs b/c of its closeout buying strategy, and opportunistic approach with real estate, 3P services, personnel, etc., and while its relatively high exposure to lower-income consumers can be a concern at times, also benefits from trade-down in times of greater economic uncertainty.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Victoria's Secret (VSXY, $80.60) Jefferies downgrades from Buy to Hold
- Victoria's Secret (VSXY, $80.60) UBS downgrades from Buy to Neutral
- ODDITY (ODD, $9.84) KeyBanc downgrades from Overweight to Sector Weight
- ODDITY (ODD, $9.84) Goldman downgrades from Neutral to Sell
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
GameStop (GME, $20.92) reported a very strong 1Q26 (April) against no Street consensus and including 14% y/y growth in sales, to $835.3M, led by its collectibles biz, and adjusted op income of $140.5M vs. $27.5M last year, and finished the quarter with $8.4B in cash/equiv and marketable securities and announced a new $2.0B stock buyback authorization, 20%+ of the mkt cap.
Rent the Runway (RENT, $3.72) reported a good 1Q26 (April) against no Street estimates and including nearly 30% y/y growth in revs, to $89.9M, driven in part by 12% growth in average active subscribers, to ~150K, while adjusted EBITDA was ($0.8M) vs. ($1.3M) last year.
- Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance for revs, EBITDA and rental product acquired.
- RENT also announced two new execs, former Signet Jewelers Chief Merchant Paige Thomas as Chief Commercial Officer, and former Honest Company CFO Dave Loretta as I-CFO.
Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH, $1.42) had a better-than-expected 1Q26 (April) and comped up 2.1%, led by Hunting and Shooting Sports and Fishing, while total sales grew 3% y/y to $256.1M and included 6% growth in e-commerce, while adjusted EBITDA was ($8.1) vs. ($9.0M) last year, and management reiterated full-year guidance, including same-store sales down 1% to up 2%.
Destination XL (DXLG, $0.69) reported a weaker-than-expected 1Q26 (April) with comps down 3.8%, total sales down 2% to $103.3M, and adjusted EBITDA of ($0.7M) vs. $0.2M last year and noted improving sales performance amid continued impact to the business from GLP-1 meds, which are being used by a "meaningful portion" of its customers and "contributing to more dynamic sizing needs," including a short-term pause in apparel purchases during rapid size changes.
- Many customers plan to return to apparel purchases as their size stabilizes.
- DXL also said it wants to renegotiate the terms of its merger with FullBeauty Brands given "the increasingly challenging consumer environment" and FullBeauty's indebtedness.
- The company said the "existing terms of the merger agreement are not in the best interests of DXL stockholders," which implies the merger will not go forward unless the terms are amended.
Dollar General said during yesterday's first quarter call the biggest increase in customer count in the quarter was from "the highest income segment, which earns more than $100,000 annually," the same basic dynamic we've heard recently from Walmart and Dollar Tree.
Li-Ning (China, sportswear, did $4.3B of revs last year, 98% domestically) announced a 10-year brand partnership deal with NBA player and former Under Armour partner Steph Curry and plans to produce basketball shoes and gear, athleisure products and a full golf line.
Hair/bodycare+ brand California Naturals closed a Series B of an undisclosed amount, led by Align Ventures and with continued participation from Elizabeth Street Ventures and other existing investors. The new capital will support the brand's further growth in retail -- partners include Target, Ulta and CVS -- and the launch of new product categories. California Naturals also said COO Hayden Hiatt will take over as CEO from founder Shelby Wild.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Perfumania and The Fragrance Outlet, which are owned by Obsession Holdings and have 280+ stores combined across 38 states, plan to open 43 new stores at malls and outlet centers across the country this year and in 2027 after opening 31 stores last year.
- Obsession is working with RCS Real Estate Advisors on site selection and negotiation.
- Store size is 850-1,800 sf, and target locations are lifestyle, shopping and power centers.
Target, Burlington and Five Below will anchor a new ~300K sf shopping center being developed by NewMark Merrill in Victorville, CA called Desert Sky Plaza, expected to open in the fall of 2027, and other retail tenants announced so far include Ross Dress for Less.
Saks Global will close its historic Neiman Marcus flagship store in downtown Dallas at the end of September after local efforts to keep the store going failed to change the company's prior decision, which it says reflects a preference by Dallas customers to shop Neiman's NorthPark store.
Ulta Beauty, which has 1,500+ stores across the US, announced plans for a new NYC flagship, will be located in Times Square and open sometime late next year.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Lafayette 148 (NYC, high-end women's apparel+) hired former Christian Dior SVP of Merchandising and former longtime Akris Americas exec Peter Herink as Chief Commercial Officer.
M&A + CAPITAL MARKETS ANALYSIS
Significant YTD Developments
In May, DoRCR highlighted 24 significant M&A + (non-debt) Capital Markets developments across retail and closely associated areas of the broader consumer space, both in the US and in larger global economies, e.g. China, the UK, EU, Canada, etc. The 24 compare to 27 in May 2025.
FOR ALL OF 2025, DoRCR highlighted 298 significant M&A + Capital Markets developments vs. 400 for all of 2024, or a year-over-year decline of 26%.
The most notable M&A developments in May included GameStop's bold offer to acquire eBay for $125 per share in cash and stock, or a 20% premium to the prior closing price, and eBay's subsequent rejection of the $55B+ offer on grounds it is "neither credible nor attractive," and a cash tender offer by FL-based Zodiac Partners II to acquire troubled Destination XL for $0.82 per share, or an implied ~$45M, and DXL's board's subsequent recommendation shareholders reject it.
WHP Global and G-III Apparel announced the acquisition of NYC-based Marc Jacobs for $850M and said they will form a 50/50 JV under which WHP will manage licensing and G-III will own and run the operating business, SHEIN acquired San Francisco-based Everlane in a deal reportedly valued at $100M, and Kontoor Brands said it will sell its Lee Brand to ABG for up to $1B in total.
Also in May, Estee Lauder and PUIG terminated their merger discussions, Reuters said MA-based Brunt Workwear is considering a sale or strategic investment that would value it at $1B+, China's JD.com was said to be considering a $2.7B offer for the UK's The Very Group, and Signet Jewelers announced the acquisition of NYC-based The Clear Cut for an undisclosed amount.
There were no notable capital-raise developments in May.
The most notable IPO/secondary developments included reports Elliott Management has chosen Goldman Sachs and JPM to lead a planned IPO of its Barnes & Noble and Waterstones bookselling businesses, which could value the combined company at $4B+, and comments by ABG founder and CEO Jamie Salter that the company could go public within the next 12 months.
- GameStop offered to acquire eBay for $125/share in cash and stock, or a value of $55B+
- Fundamental Brands (FL) is acquiring Great American Beauty for an undisclosed amount
- Reliance Retail (India) acquired haircare brand Anomaly (also India), amount undisclosed
- Crown Affair (haircare) closed a Series C of an undisclosed size, led by Stride Consumer
- Elliott Mgmt has chosen Goldman and JPM to lead a Barnes & Noble IPO per Bloomberg
- Home Depot's SRS unit completed the acquisition of Mingledorff's, amount not disclosed
- eBay rejected GameStop's $55B+ buyout offer saying it is "neither credible nor attractive"
- Zodiac Partners launched an $0.82 per share cash tender offer to acquire Destination XL
- NYC Alliance acquired the brand assets of Derek Lam 10 Crosby from Public Clothing Co.
- WHP Global and G-III are buying Mark Jacobs for $850M via a 50/50 licensing/operating JV
- Cap Capital (UK, private equity) submitted the winning offer for Spanish brand Pronovias
- SHEIN acquired SF-based women's fashion brand Everlane from L Catterton for $100M
- ABG founder and CEO Jamie Salter told CNBC the company could go public within 12 mos
- Marquee Brands is buying a majority stake in Italian luxury fashion house Roberto Cavalli
- Kontoor Brands is selling Lee to Authentic Brands in a transaction valued at up to $1B
- Estee Lauder (NYC) and PUIG (Spain) terminated merger talks first disclosed in March
- Brunt Workwear (MA) is exploring a sale or strategic investment at a $1B+ value (Reuters)
- Modella (UK) is nearing an agreement to acquire Flying Tiger Copenhagen per The Times
- JD.com (China) is considering a $2.7B bid for the UK's The Very Group acc'd to Sky News
- Destination XL's board advised shareholders to reject Zodiac's $0.82 per share tender offer
- Gordon Brothers has acquired Radley London through a pre-packaged administration
- Tractor Supply acquired veterinary services biz VIP Petcare from PetIQ, amt undisclosed
- Orabella (Bella Hadid, fragrances) closed a Series A, amt undisclosed, led by Silas Capital
- Signet is acquiring NYC-based The Clear Cut (online jeweler) for an undisclosed amount
Link to our proprietary M&A + Capital Markets Summary for the prior 12 months here
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 8:15 am, ADP Employment for May was slightly better than expected at +122K vs. the Street's +120K estimate and accelerated modestly from a revised +105K in April on more broad-based hiring than in the last few years, while pay for "job stayers" was unchanged at +4.4% y/y.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out yesterday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.31 on average across the US for the week ended 6/1/26, down a $0.17 from the prior week but up $1.18 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.35, down $0.17 on the week but up $1.90 from last year.
- Fuel prices are being driven up by supply constraints related to the war in Iran.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices are running well above the psychologically (and otherwise) important $4 per-gallon level, and this will likely have a meaningful impact on consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Out last Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/23/26 were close to expectations at a low 215K vs. the Street's 213K estimate and rose 5K from a revised 210K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose slightly, to 1.79M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Source: ADP and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
ODDITY (ODD, $9.84) KeyBanc downgrades from Overweight to Sector Weight with no target after yesterday's 1Q26 results, says disruption related to a key advertising partner continued in the quarter and notes guidance now calls for a 25%-30% decline in revs this year, lowers its earnings forecast and expects continued dislocation in customer acquisition costs.
ODDITY (ODD, $9.84) Goldman downgrades from Neutral to Sell and lowers its target from $16 to $8 after yesterday's 1Q26 results, says there is low visibility into a recovery in the business with the dislocation of the company's largest advertising partner, expects higher user acquisition costs to continue to negatively impact the bottom line through the rest of the year.
Victoria's Secret (VSXY, $80.60) Jefferies downgrades from Buy to Hold but raises its target from $65 to $73 after yesterday's upside 1Q26 and 47% spike in the stock, says management is delivering on the turnaround/transformation but thinks with the increased guidance and big re-rating of the stock, valuation now more appropriately reflects the "potentially durable fundamentals."
Victoria's Secret (VSXY, $80.60) UBS downgrades from Buy to Neutral but raises its target from $81 to $90 after yesterday's upside 1Q26 and 47% spike in the stock, also cites valuation with the big move and says its positive thesis has essentially played out while making positive comments on potential further margin expansion on strong sales growth and fixed cost leverage.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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