Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Vince sees good sales acceleration in the first quarter, Birkenstock's buybacks have the stock rallying, fuel prices easing and could fall more, Groupe Dynamite may be seeing some slowing from extreme strength, e.l.f. Beauty launches haircare...
DoRCR Reports are for Individual Paid Subscribers | Pls Do Not Share Internally or Externally
DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Vince's Sales Acceleration, Birkenstock's Stock Buybacks and Easing Fuel Prices in Focus...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/15)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- VF Corp doing investor meetings in San Francisco, hosted by Piper Sandler
- FIGS doing investor meetings in NYC, hosted by KeyBanc
Tuesday (6/16)
- Jefferies Consumer Conference today and tomorrow in Nantucket, retailers attending include: Walmart, Macy's, YETI, Arhaus, others to be added as they are announced...
- Housing Starts for May at 8:30 am, Street at down 1.4% m/m vs. prior down 2.8%
- Vince reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $63.0M/($0.19)
- La-Z-Boy reports 4Q26 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $569.2M/$0.82
Wednesday (6/17)
- Retail Sales for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.6% m/m vs. prior +0.5%
- La-Z-Boy 4Q26 call at 8:30 am
- Pending Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at +1.0% m/m vs. prior +1.4%
- a.k.a. Brands at the Planet Micro Cap Las Vegas Conference at 1:15 pm ET
- FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm, investors expect no change in the 3.50%-3.75% target
Thursday (6/18)
- Carter's doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by Needham
- Kroger reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.1%, EPS of $1.59
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 229K
- Lowe's participating in a virtual fireside chat at 9:00 am, hosted by Oppenheimer
Friday (6/19)
- Juneteenth observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish today
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.6% as of ~9:45 am vs. a slight gain in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks: VNCE, up 20% on results and a guidance hike, ELF (up 6%, launches haircare), BBBY (up 5%, says it is "back to college"), BBWI (up 5%) and DXLG (up 5%).
- Weaker retail stocks include SNBR, which recently filed Ch 11 but hasn't been delisted yet and is down 24%, also DBGI, LANV, KSS and FIGS, all down 4%-7%.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Total sales grew 11% y/y to $64.0M after 5% growth in the fourth quarter and included 6% growth in wholesale sales, to $32.1M, and 16% growth in DTC sales, to $32.0M.
- EPS were ($0.16) vs. ($0.37) last year, and adjusted EBITDA was ($1.1M) vs. ($3.0M) in 1Q25 and incorporated 30 bps of y/y improvement in gross margin on higher pricing (130 bps) and lower discounting (100 bps), partially offset by tariff impacts.
- Ending inventories were up 14% y/y but would have been up 6% absent tariff impacts.
- FY26 guidance: 7%-8% growth in total sales from FY25's $300.0M vs. a prior +3%-6% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.5%-6.0% vs. 5.0% in FY25 and a prior 5.0%-5.5% and assuming a 10% tariff rate on applicable inventory receipts and no benefit from tariff refunds.
- Full-year guidance also assumes 10%-12% sales growth in the second quarter.
- Vince finished the quarter with 54 company-operated Vince stores vs. 58 a year ago.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: A nice sequential acceleration in trends, especially in wholesale, which saw a slight y/y decline in sales in the fourth quarter, reflects sustainable benefits from Vince's expansion of e-comm capabilities and its drop-ship program, also the ongoing scaling of its men's business and successful price increases to help offset tariff and other margin pressures.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Gildan Athleticwear (GIL, $61.97) TD Securities designates GIL a Best Smid-Cap idea
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Birkenstock (BIRK, $47.93) said it may purchase up to an add'l $500M of stock, or nearly 6% of the market cap, in connection with an offering of EUR900M of senior notes due 2033, of which EUR428.5M will be used to redeem the outstanding 5.25% Senior Notes due 2029.
- We note BIRK shares have been rallying on recent buyback news and are up 44% since the company announced a $250M accelerated share repurchase agreement in late-May.
- Birkenstock said then the ASR was meant to take advantage of "a strong disconnect" between the price of the stock and "the strength of (its) underlying fundamentals."
Groupe Dynamite (Canada, owns GARAGE and DYNAMITE) had another exceptionally strong quarter -- 1Q26, ended April -- though comps of +22.6% were slightly below the Street's +25.4% estimate, and total revs of C$310.6M grew 37% y/y but were slightly below the Street's C$311.6M, and the analyst commentary we're seeing is focused around a moderating trend later in the quarter.
- Still, management reaffirmed full-year comp guidance of +11%-14% and revenue guidance of +22%+25% and also raised the adjusted EBITDA margin range slightly.
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF, $63.99) has launched a new product category with prestige-quality haircare, called e.l.f. Hair and with six SKUs initially, available starting today on TikTok Shop, then next Wednesday at elfhaircare.com and target.com, than at all US Target stores starting Sunday 7/5/26 as part of an exclusive retail partner agreement, press release here.
Vera Bradley (VRA, $3.69) has launched an assortment of handbags, travel styles, backpacks and accessories at all Nordstrom full-line stores across the US and at nordstrom.com as part of a first-ever partnership with Nordstrom and says the initial collection will be available through August and that both companies are optimistic about expanding into future seasonal opportunities.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, $6.10) says it is "back for college" and is featuring a dedicated College Living area in all 97 Bed Bath & Beyond + The Container Store stores, while expanded college assortments are available online at bedbathandbeyond.com, press release here.
Japanese streetwear brand Human Made is acquiring Undercover, another Japanese streetwear brand, and says transaction terms will be established after an independent evaluation. Plans call for both companies to sign a share purchase agreement in a few months, with the ownership transfer expected to happen in early-2027. Human Made went public in Tokyo last November and said it expects the Undercover acquisition to have a minor impact on its financials.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Sprouts Farmers Market, which has 485+ stores in 25 states, has confirmed a recent media report and says it plans to open 30-40 across New England, starting with its first store in the region in 2028, in Weymouth, MA, while growth in 2026-2027 will focus on markets in existing states.
Kroger (~2,800 stores under various banners) plans to build a new store in Murfreesboro, TN (Nashville suburb), on vacant land on Memorial Blvd across from the State Farm building, and says the new store will replace a smaller store near Iron Gate, about a mile away.
Publix (1,400+ stores, including ~900 in Florida) will open a new store tomorrow in the Cincinnati market, at Cold Spring Pointe in Northern KY, ~11 miles south of downtown Cincinnati.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Kohl's has hired Foot Locker Chief Operations Officer from 2022-2025, current Levi Strauss board member, and former Ulta Beauty Chief Information Officer and Chief Supply Chain Officer, also former Target exec Elliott Rodgers as Chief Operating Officer, starts in early-September.
Lovesac CFO since mid-2023 and former Vindex CFO and Yum! Brands financial exec Keith Siegner has stepped down and been succeeded by Riveron MD since October 2024 and former Ankura Consulting MD Andrew Farag, and LOVE also reaffirmed 2Q26 guidance given last week.
Stitch Fix has hired IPSY (beauty subscription platform) Chief Technology Officer since fall 2023 and former Sephora CTO and Walmart Labs tech exec Sree Sreedhararaj as Chief Product and Technology Officer to lead tech, product, data science, security and IT teams.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.05 on average across the US for the week ended 6/15/26, down $0.10 from the prior week but up $0.91 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.06, down $0.15 on the week but up $1.49 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas at $4+ is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Out at 8:30 am, Housing Starts for May were much weaker than expected and fell 15% m/m to an annualized rate of 1.18M vs. the Street's 1.45M estimate, and starts were 9% lower on a year-over-year basis, while Building Permits decreased only 1% on a m/m basis and were flat y/y.
- Weakness in Housing Starts in May was concentrated in multi-family units, which fell 40% from April, while starts of single-family homes decreased only 2% m/m.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The housing market is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates opt to remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Out Friday, U. Mich. Sentiment for June (preliminary) was better than expected at 48.9 vs. the Street's 47.8 estimate and a meaningful improvement from May's final reading of 44.8 (record low) as concerns about fuel and energy prices eased a bit with the recent downtrend.
- Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months are +4.6% y/y, down from +4.8%.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: As we've discussed, there has been essentially no correlation between sentiment and spending, as retail sales have remained very strong in recent months, but we'll take this as a small incremental positive going into a big retail stretch next week with Amazon's four-day Prime Day event and all the competing events by other major retailers.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Gildan Athleticwear (GIL, $61.97) TD Securities maintains a Buy rating and $80 price target and designates GIL a Best Smid-Cap idea, says the integration of HanesBrands is largely complete and expects the narrative to shift to acquisition synergies and the overall company's revenue growth and margin expansion potential, also share gains and potential sales of non-core assets.
Tractor Supply (TSCO, $30.88) Truist maintains a Hold rating and lowers its target from $44 to $32, says its proprietary data suggest solid trends to start 2Q26 (June) were followed by a slowdown in late-April that has continued into early-June and lowers its comp forecast from +1.5% to (2.0%) vs. the Street's +1.3% estimate, also lowers its EPS estimate from $0.86 to $0.77 vs. the Street's $0.85 and notes the weak housing market and lower dog ownership as negatives.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
This material is for paid subscribers only
Full Terms of Use are available here
UNAUTHORIZED USE OR DISTRIBUTION IS UNLAWFUL
Disclaimer: DoR Consumer Research publishes a financial report of general and regular circulation which does not offer individualized investment advice attuned to any specific portfolio or any person’s particular needs. No mention of a particular security in our reports constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
Any reliance you place on such information is strictly at your own risk.
BEFORE SELLING OR BUYING ANY STOCK OR OTHER INVESTMENT YOU SHOULD CONSULT WITH A QUALIFIED BROKER OR OTHER FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL TO VERIFY PRICING INFORMATION AND TO SOLICIT ADVICE AS TO THE APPROPRIATENESS OF A GIVEN TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT.