Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Kroger had an okay first quarter, but growth is slowing, US mall traffic accelerated across formats in May, Abercrombie's Hollister brand is teaming up with Target, Jobless Claims remain at low levels, American Exchange acquires Allbirds' IP...
DoRCR Reports are for Individual Paid Subscribers | Pls Do Not Share Internally or Externally
DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Kroger's Growth Slowing, Mall Traffic Up in May, Hollister + Target, Low Jobless Claims...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/15)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- VF Corp doing investor meetings in San Francisco, hosted by Piper Sandler
- FIGS doing investor meetings in NYC, hosted by KeyBanc
Tuesday (6/16)
- Jefferies Consumer Conference today and tomorrow in Nantucket, retailers attending include: Walmart, Macy's, YETI, Arhaus, others to be added as they are announced...
- Housing Starts for May at 8:30 am, Street at down 1.4% m/m vs. prior down 2.8%
- Vince reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $63.0M/($0.19)
- La-Z-Boy reports 4Q26 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $569.2M/$0.82
Wednesday (6/17)
- FIGS doing meetings in Chicago/Milwaukee today/tomorrow, hosted by KeyBanc
- Retail Sales for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.6% m/m vs. prior +0.5%
- La-Z-Boy 4Q26 call at 8:30 am
- Pending Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at +1.0% m/m vs. prior +1.4%
- a.k.a. Brands at the Planet Micro Cap Las Vegas Conference at 1:15 pm ET
- FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm, investors expect no change in the 3.50%-3.75% target
Thursday (6/18)
- Carter's doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by Needham
- Kroger reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.1%, EPS of $1.59
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 229K
- Lowe's participating in a virtual fireside chat at 9:00 am, hosted by Oppenheimer
Friday (6/19)
- Juneteenth observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish today
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 2.1% as of ~10:55 am vs. a 1.0% gain in the S&P 500, which is recovering yesterday's losses following the first rate announcement from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who maintained the 3.50%-3.75% target, but with a more hawkish tone than expected.
- Stronger retail stocks include ODD, which is up 10%, also REAL (up 10%), W (up 10%, announced its eighth retail store), VSXY (up 7%) and RH (up 6%).
- Weaker retail stocks include SNBR, which recently filed Ch 11 but hasn't been delisted yet and is down 30%+, also DBGI (down 6%), KR (down 6% on a slight 1Q26 sales and earnings miss), ACI (down 4% in sympathy with KR) and BJ (down 2%, same).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- The +1.0% comp is essentially in line with the Street's +1.1%, while total company sales were $46.12B, up 0.5% y/y when excluding fuel sales and the divested Vitacost business.
- eCommerce sales remained strong in the quarter and grew 19% y/y on an adjusted basis after +20% in the fourth quarter, while Kroger Precision Marketing profit grew 20%+.
- Adjusted EPS were $1.58 vs. $1.49 last year and the Street's $1.59 and incorporated 30 bps of gross margin pressure on the factors mentioned above, partially offset by favorable pharmacy mix, improved profitability in eCommerce, sourcing benefits, and lower D&A.
- FY26 guidance still includes ex-fuel comps of +1%-2% vs. the Street's +2.0% estimate and assumes a 130 bps headwind from the Inflation Reduction Act, while EPS are expected to be $5.10-$5.30 vs. an adjusted $4.85 in FY25 and the Street's $5.23 estimate.
- Guidance assumes continued price investment, funded by e-comm profitability following recent restructuring actions, also procurement efficiencies and productivity gains.
- On the Call, management said it expects second quarter comps to be in line with 1Q26, which implies +1.0% vs. the Street's +1.4%, and also said it expects adjusted EPS to be in line with 2Q25's $1.04, which implies $1.04 vs. the Street's $1.13 estimate.
- Factors expected to negatively impact 2Q26 sales: Ongoing Rx headwinds from an accelerating shift from branded to generic scripts, continued pressure on consumers.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Not a terrible report, but does suggest some moderation in the biz, along with market share losses to Walmart U.S., which grew its grocery comps by a mid-single-digit rate in its April quarter, and Costco, where food comps are also growing by a MSD%; that said, we continue to like Kroger's recent hiring of former Walmart exec Greg Foran as CEO.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Lands' End (LE, $11.76) Noble Capital Markets initiates with an Outperform rating
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
Traffic to US malls accelerated in May across formats despite higher gas prices and depressed Consumer Confidence acc'd to the latest data from Placer.ai, which put traffic to open-air centers up 5.5% y/y in May after +3.3% in April, traffic to indoor malls up 2.7% after +1.9%, and traffic to outlet malls up 2.0% in May after a 0.2% increase in April, and also noted consumer resilience.
- Traffic in May got a small lift from having one add'l Sunday and one fewer Thursday -- Sundays are generally busier than Thursdays -- than in May 2025.
AI-driven online traffic to US retail sites grew nearly 140% y/y in May and reached a new peak acc'd to Adobe, which says AI-driven traffic is up 1,300%+ since the fall of 2024 and represents a "sustained change in how consumers discover and engage with brands."
- AI-driven traffic is also converting 50%+ better than non-AI-driven traffic, 80% of consumers who use AI for shopping are using it more frequently now, and nearly 80% say they feel more confident in making a purchase when they get help from AI.
- AI-driven shoppers are also 15% more engaged than non-AI, have visits that are 50%+ longer than non-AI, browse more pages, and are less likely to leave the site immediately.
- Related, Ulta Beauty released the findings from a new Nielsen IQ study on how Gen Alpha is using AI to discover beauty products, link here, says 78% of Gen Alpha consumers discover beauty online, while most still prefer to shop for beauty products in-store.
US spending on Father's Day could grow by a very strong 16% y/y, to $27.9B acc'd to annual survey work by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics that has 77% of consumers planning to celebrate Father's Day, similar to recent years, and spend $226.58 per person, up 14% from last year's $199.38 in planned spending and a record high despite macro uncertainty.
- The top five planned gifts by spending are a special outing at $4.8B, clothing at $4.1B, gift cards at $3.3B, electronics at $3.1B and personal care items at $2.3B.
- Online is again the top planned shopping destination at 38%, then department stores at 37%, and discount stores at 26%, up from 23% in last year's survey.
- We covered this last week but highlight again with Father's Day on Sunday.
Source: Placer.ai
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $84.71) announced a multi-season apparel and bedding partnership with Target for its Hollister brand, called The Hollister Collection at Target, will be available starting 6/28/26 on hollisterco.com, Target.com, at most Target stores and in select Hollister stores, and plans call for new/additional product drops in front of holiday 2026 and in spring 2027.
- This is Hollister's first move into home decor and the "next extension of the brand."
- The initial collection will span ~60 items in men's and women's apparel and bedding.
Walmart has nearly 40% of all US online grocery sales acc'd to a new report from Brick Meets Click and discussed by Chain Store Age here, says Walmart is making bigger share gains than Amazon and is benefiting from its increasingly-fast grocery delivery services, including <1 hour fulfillment.
- Total US online grocery sales have grown 20%+ y/y each quarter since 4Q24 and comprised 19%+ of all grocery sales in this year's first quarter, up from <15% at the end of 3Q24.
Vince CEO Brendan Hoffman has been "pleasantly surprised" by the performance of its wholesale biz with Saks Global, even though Saks has become a smaller acct, with fewer stores as the footprint has been reduced in bankruptcy, and Hoffman also said -- during the 1Q26 call -- Saks has been a good partner through the Ch 11 and that a "healthy Saks Global" is good for Vince and the industry.
Swiss Watch Exports increased very slightly in value in May, with mixed performance by region as exports to the US/France/UK grew 12%/57%/25% y/y, while exports to China fell by 21%, and exports to the Middle East, including to the UAE, down 14%, were disrupted by war-related uncertainty.
American Exchange completed its $39M acquisition of Allbirds' IP, in partnership with WSG Brands, which will focus on overall brand management and market expansion, while American Exchange Group will design and manufacture Allbirds footwear.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Bed Bath & Beyond is accelerating the launch of co-branded Bed Bath & Beyond + The Container Store stores, has transitioned the first 22 stores, scattered in markets across the country, list here, and says add'l stores -- nearly 100 TCS stores are to be transitioned -- will follow in the coming several weeks while noting early success with the first co-branded store in Fort Worth.
Wayfair (digital native) announced plans for an eighth store, 135K sf, in Princeton, NJ at Nassau Park Pavilion, will open next year and follow existing stores in Chicago, Atlanta and Columbus, OH, and upcoming stores in Denver, Yonkers, NY, Fort Lauderdale and Cincinnati.
Olive Young, a Korean beauty and lifestyle retailer, has opened a second US store, at Westfield Century City in Los Angeles, ~2,700 sf, follows the recent opening of its first US store, in Pasadena, and is part of a plan to expand across the US, starting in California.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Five Below announced two leadership appoints, GNC Chief Operating Officer since December 2024 and former Conn's President and long-time Target exec Rodney Lastinger as Chief Retail Officer, will join the company next week, and Allbirds Chief People & Legal Officer since 2024 Christos Yatrakis as Chief Legal Officer, joined earlier this week; both execs report to Five Below COO Ken Bull.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 8:30 am, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 were close to expectations at 226K and decreased 4K from a slightly revised 230K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which indicate how long it's taking those without jobs to find jobs, rose by 24K, to 1.18M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out yesterday, Pending Home Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 3.8% m/m vs. the Street's +1.0% and after a downwardly-revised +0.3% in April, while Pending Home Sales increased nearly 5% on a year-over-year basis compared to May 2025.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Great to see, but the housing mkt is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Also out yesterday, headline Retail Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 0.9% m/m vs. the Street's +0.6% estimate after a slightly revised +0.4% increase in April, while Retail Sales excluding autos and fuel increased 0.5% in May after a 0.5% m/m increase in April.
- Eleven of 13 merchandise categories grew sales on a month-to-month basis.
- On a year-over-year basis, headline Retail Sales grew 6.9%, best since early-2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is consistent with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales ex fuel/autos/restaurants up 7.0% y/y in May, driven by factors including bigger tax refunds than last year, accelerating jobs growth and the strong stock market.
Out Tuesday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.05 on average across the US for the week ended 6/15/26, down $0.10 from the prior week but up $0.91 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.06, down $0.15 on the week but up $1.49 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas at $4+ is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Source: Labor Dept and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Amazon (AMZN, $237.50) BofA maintains its Buy rating and $310 target in front of next week's Prime Day event, expects 4.5% y/y growth in GMV to $11.6B on a like-for-like basis compared to last year's July timing, and sees third-party GMV growing 5% to $10.0B, which implies total Prime Day GMV of $31.6B, up 5% y/y, also notes strong retail sales through May and says it sees Amazon's 2Q26 revs meeting or exceeding the high end of a $194B-$199B guided range.
Lands' End (LE, $11.76) Noble Capital Markets initiates with an Outperform rating and $20 target, says the balance sheet is stronger now following the full repayment of a $234M term loan and believes the new partnership with WHP Global will be transformation for Lands' End and help to unlock hidden value through the monetization of its intellectual property.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
This material is for paid subscribers only
Full Terms of Use are available here
UNAUTHORIZED USE OR DISTRIBUTION IS UNLAWFUL
Disclaimer: DoR Consumer Research publishes a financial report of general and regular circulation which does not offer individualized investment advice attuned to any specific portfolio or any person’s particular needs. No mention of a particular security in our reports constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
Any reliance you place on such information is strictly at your own risk.
BEFORE SELLING OR BUYING ANY STOCK OR OTHER INVESTMENT YOU SHOULD CONSULT WITH A QUALIFIED BROKER OR OTHER FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL TO VERIFY PRICING INFORMATION AND TO SOLICIT ADVICE AS TO THE APPROPRIATENESS OF A GIVEN TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT.