Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Nike's soft trend and "uneven" turnaround progress, Kroger buying much smaller Giant Eagle for $1.65B, M&A + Cap Mkts activity up slightly y/y through first six months of 2026 per our proprietary work, JLL bullish on back-to-school...

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DoR Consumer Research

Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer

Wednesday, July 1, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET

Nike's "Uneven" Turnaround, Kroger Buying Giant Eagle, Our Latest M&A + Cap Mkts Analysis...

THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR

UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern

Monday (6/29) 

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis

Tuesday (6/30)

  • Consumer Confidence for June at 10:00 am, Street at 94.4 vs. prior 93.1
  • Nike reports 4Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $10.85B/$0.12

Wednesday (7/1)

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
  • ADP Employment for June at 8:15 am, Street at +92.5K vs. prior +122K

Thursday (7/2)

  • Nonfarm Payrolls for June at 8:30 am, Street at +100K vs. prior +172K, Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings +3.5% y/y vs. prior +3.4%
  • Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/27/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 215K
  • Bassett Furniture reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, no Street estimates

Friday (7/3)

  • Independence Day observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish

**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**

TODAY'S EARLY TRADING

The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.1% as of ~10:50 am vs. a slight gain in the S&P 500, which is higher after ADP's latest report on private-sector employment shows 98K jobs added in June.

  • Stronger retail stocks include ODD, up 12% on no news but still down 58% YTD, RENT (up 7%), ELF (up 6%), CHWY (up 6%) and BBBY (up 5%, launches Affirm payments).
  • Weaker retail stocks include VNCE, which is down 6%, also LANV (down 5%), WMT (down 5%, Cleveland Research is out negative, saying comps are slowing and Walmart might need to lower prices to clear inventory), CURV (down 5%) and WRBY (down 3%).

MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS

All Stock Prices as of Last Close

Nike (NKE, $41.05) had a better-than-expected 4Q26 (May), though there wasn't much change in the generally weak overall trend as total company revs decreased 4% y/y currency neutral after a 3% decline in the third quarter and incorporated growth in North America and declines in Greater China and EMEA; management noted "an increasingly challenging operating environment" and "challenged" sell-through and guided for a LSD%-MSD% decline in revs in 1Q27.
  • Total company revs were $10.97B, down 4% y/y but a bit better than the Street's $10.85B estimate and incorporated wholesale revs of $6.6B, up 1% y/y, Nike Direct revs of $4.1B, down 9%, and Converse revs of $244M, down 34% on declines across all territories.
  • Within Nike Direct, Nike Brand Digital revs fell 12%, and company-owned store revs fell 7%.
  • Nike Brand revs were $10.72B, down 3% currency neutral and included North America revs of $4.83B, up 3%, EMEA revs of $2.98B, down 6%, Greater China revs of $1.30B, down 17%, and Asia Pacific & Latin America revs of $1.60B, down 1% year-over-year.
  • Nike Brand Footwear revs were $7.10B, down 4% y/y currency neutral, while Apparel revs were $3.05B, down 1%, and Equipment revs were $551M, down 5%.
  • Excluding a $0.52 benefit from anticipated IEEPA tariff refunds, EPS were $0.20 vs. $0.14 last year and the Street's $0.12 and reflected a slight decline in gross margin when excluding the tariff refund benefit, a 2% decrease in S&A expenses, and a lower tax rate.
  • Inventories look fine and were flat y/y on higher units, offset by shifts in product mix.
  • On the Call, management guided 1Q27 reported revs down LSD%-MSD% from 1Q26's $11.72B and vs. the Street's (2%) and said 2Q27 revs are likely to decelerate sequentially against digital promotions in EMEA in 2Q26 and the timing of NA wholesale shipments.
  • Currency-neutral rev growth in 1Q27 is expected to be consistent with the recent trend.
  • Management also said it sees gross margin expansion starting in the first quarter, up slightly vs. 1Q26, and noted it previously expected expansion to start in 2Q27.
  • Nike moved its investor day from Sept to Nov b/c of the recently announced CFO change.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Nike's turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill is proving to be "uneven," in Hill's own words, and reflects various challenges globally, including relatively new and innovative competitors like On and HOKA, strong local competition in China with Anta and Li Ning, and protracted weakness in Nike sportswear and Jordan streetwear, which drive half of company revs.

Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:

  • Birkenstock (BIRK, $43.03) Raymond James initiates coverage with an Outperform rating

INDUSTRY INSIGHT

JLL is out with a bullish back-to-school shopping forecast after recent survey work and says parents are planning to increase their spending by 12%, to an average of $489 per child, while 90%+ are planning to shop in physical stores, with Walmart in the lead and mentioned by 77% of all those surveyed, up 23 ppts from last year and the highest reading in survey history.

  • 80%+ of parents are planning to do their BTS shopping at mass merchants, and dollar stores are in the top 10 list for the first time vis-a-vis frequently visited BTS shopping destinations.
  • Target and Amazon also did well with mentions by parents as a top BTS shopping destination, at 40% and 39%, followed by a big drop to #4 Old Navy at 9%, Dollar General at 8%, Dollar Tree at 7%, Staples at 6%, Ross at 5%, Macy's at 5%, and Kohl's at 4%.
  • 67% of those surveyed said saving money is a top consideration during the back-to-school shopping season, while 35% said finding the full school list in one place is important.
JLL

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

RH (RH, $164.73) has officially launched RH Estates and introduced RH Bespoke Furniture and RH Couture Upholstery, release here, says RH Estates "reflect(s) a commitment to craftsmanship never before seen at scale," also says it acquired NYC-based Dmitry & Co, launches with RH Estates.

Kroger (KR, $55.53) is acquiring family-owned Giant Eagle for $1.65B, including $1.25B in cash and the assumption of $400M in outstanding liabilities, plans to finance the deal with cash and maintain its 2.3x-2.5x total debt to adjusted EBITDA target and continue its $2B share buyback program. Giant Eagle is based in Pittsburgh, has nearly 200 stores and 10+ standalone pharmacies in northern OH, western PA, WV, MD and IN and does ~$9B in annual sales vs. Kroger's ~2,800 stores and ~$150B in annual sales. The transaction is expected to close in 2027, be accretive to Kroger's adjusted EPS in the second full year and involve "limited Giant Eagle store divestitures."

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Salt Life, which is now owned by Iconix International, has opened its first store post the Delta Apparel bankruptcy in 2024 and shutdown of all 28 Salt Life stores; the new store is on Sanibel Island, FL, and add'l stores are planned up the East Coast to NJ later this year.
Meijer, which has 500+ stores across the Midwest, including 270+ supercenters, will open its fifth Meijer Grocery store in mid-August, 75K sf, in Livonia, MI (suburban Detroit), location is 33400 Seven Mile Road, will follow the recent opening of a Meijer Grocery in Rochester Hills (Detroit).
Free People (Urban Outfitters) will open a new 2,500+ sf store in Palm Desert, CA on Friday, on El Paseo, part of URBN's previously announced plan to open 54 new stores in its FY27 (Jan 2027) on a base of 784 owned stores and mostly FP Movement, Free People and Anthropologie stores.

MANAGEMENT UPDATES

We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...

M&A + CAPITAL MARKETS ANALYSIS

PUBLISHED 1st WEDNESDAY OF EACH MONTH
Significant YTD Developments

In June, DoRCR highlighted 30 significant M&A + (non-debt) Capital Markets developments across retail and closely associated areas of the broader consumer space, both in the US and in larger global economies, e.g. China, the UK, EU, Canada, etc. The 30 compare to 21 in June 2025.

Through the first six months of this year, we've highlighted 152 significant developments, up slightly from 148 through the first six months of 2025 and reflecting a mix of positives and negatives, including the strong stock market, which is contributing to a pick-up in stock-based M&A and IPO activity, and still-high interest rates, which are holding back debt-financed M&A and making it more difficult for startups to raise new capital from investors.

FOR ALL OF 2025, DoRCR highlighted 298 significant M&A + Capital Markets developments vs. 400 for all of 2024, or a year-over-year decline of 26%.

The most notable M&A developments in June included Bed Bath & Beyond's announced acquisition of a Detroit-based home installation, renovation and project execution company called Installed Right and SFV Services through the issuance of 7.2M BBBY shares to the founding family as part of a buildout of its dedicated home services platform, also UK-based Frasers Group's offer to acquire the 74% of Hugo Boss's stock it doesn't already own for EUR38 per share in cash, or an implied equity value for the entire company of nearly EUR2B.

Sleep Number filed Ch 11, as had been widely expected, and in an unexpected twist, said it will combine with Sleep Country Canada, which offered $415M as stalking-horse bidder and plans to introduce Sleep Number products to consumers in Canada and other markets, and Bed Bath & Beyond said it will acquire publicly-traded Fathom Holdings -- based in NC and operates a national, tech-driven real estate services platform spanning residential brokerage, mortgage, title, insurance and other services -- as part of an ongoing build-out of its "Everything Home Strategy" and said it expects to close the all-stock transaction -- implied value is ~$55M -- in 2H26.

American Exchange Group completed its $39M acquisition of Allbirds' IP, in partnership with WSG Brands, Dana-co LLC, a NYC-based intimate apparel company, acquired Santa Monica-based intimates, sleepwear and lifestyle brand Lunya from its founder for an undisclosed amount, and Destination XL rec'd a new, slightly higher buyout offer from Zodiac Partners, which said it will pay $0.84 per share to acquire all DXLG shares, up from a prior $0.82 per share that was rejected by DXLG on grounds it was" highly conditional and opportunistic" and did not reflect the company's underlying/intrinsic value.

At the end of the month, Color Image Apparel, which is parent to Alo, closed on the sale of its wholesale Bella + Canvas T-shirt and apparel business.

There most notable capital-raise developments in June included a WSJ piece saying VA-based activewear brand Rhoback is set to receive $50M from a new LVMH- and pro-athlete-backed fund called Champ and a "handful of other investors.

Champ was formed by LVMH's L Catterton and sports advisory firm Patricof Co., launched a couple months ago, and is looking to raise $500M to invest in "buzzy consumer brands."

Rhoback launched in 2016 and is on track to do $200M+ in revs this year, and this is its first outside investment, with some of the funds going to store growth.

The most notable IPO/secondary developments included a Reuters piece saying Alo is "primed for (a) public offering or sale" and citing parent company Color Image Apparel's recent agreement to sell its wholesale Bella + Canvas T-shirt and apparel business, which should make it easier for potential investors or buyers to understand Alo's underlying value.

Color Image Apparel is fully owned by its founders Danny Harris and Marco DeGeorge, who have not spoken publicly about either an IPO or a sale.

UK-based EG Group confidentially filed to go public in the US and could raise ~$1B at a targeted ~$9B valuation acc'd to the WSJ, which noted EG is backed by private equity firm TDR Capital and owns Cumberland Farms, which operates 1,500+ fuel/c-stores in 25 US states under 11 different banners.

Near the end of the month, Los Angeles-based womenswear brand Reformation filed to go public on the NYSE under the ticker REF, though it did not say how many shares it plans to sell or give a targeted price range.

Reformation, which is majority owned by UK-based private equity firm Permira, did $507M in revs last year, up 16% from 2024, and had $45M in adjusted EBITDA, or 8.9% of revs.

June 2026
  • Vetir, a NYC-based, AI-powered fashion platform, raised $5.5M at a $150M valuation in a Series A funding round led by a group of investors that included Laidlaw & Company
  • La-Z-Boy completed the sale of American Drew + Kincaid to Banner House, amt undisclosed
  • Filament Sciences (L.A., premium haircare) raised $2M in a seed round led by Wittington VC
  • California Naturals (hair/bodycare+) closed a Series B of an undisclosed amt, led by Align
  • Bed Bath & Beyond is acquiring Installed Right + SFV Services, will issue 7.2M BBBY shares
  • Phia (NYC, AI-powered shopping) raised $35.5M in a Series A with celebs + tech investors
  • Frasers (UK) offered to buy the 74% of Hugo Boss (Germany) it doesn’t own for EUR38/sh
  • Sleep Country Canada bid $415M as stalking horse for Sleep Number, which filed Ch 11
  • Remedy Science (L.A., derma skincare) closed a Series A, amt undisclosed, L Catterton led
  • Frasers (UK) offered to buy the 77% of Australia’s Accent it doesn’t own, ~$225M USD value
  • Rhoback (activewear) rec’d $50M from Champ (L Catterton + Patricof Co.), other investors
  • Human Made is buying Undercover (both Japan, both streetwear), will set terms soon
  • Bed Bath is buying Fathom Holdings in an all-stock deal with an implied value of ~$55M
  • American Exchange completed its $39M acquisition of Allbirds IP, in partnership with WSG
  • Consumer Growth Partners + Sisu Equity bought Local Boy Outfitters, amt undisclosed
  • Dana-co LLC acquired CA-based intimates+ brand Lunya from its founders, amt undisclosed
  • L’Oreal (Paris) is buying a majority of Innovist (India, beauty brand), amount undisclosed
  • Roz (L.A., haircare brand) has sold a minority stake to L Catterton, amount undisclosed
  • Walmart is acquiring connected TV ad platform Vibe.co (France), deal value is $1.4B per WSJ
  • Destination XL rec’d a slightly higher $0.84 per share offer, or ~$46M, from Zodiac Partners
  • Alo is “primed for (a) public offering or sale” per Reuters, which noted recent parent-co news
  • L2 Brands (PA) acquired Wild Tribute (national park-inspired apparel), amount undisclosed
  • HSG (China) completed its majority acquisition of Italy’s Golden Goose, amount undisclosed
  • EG (UK, owns Cumberland Farms) filed for a US IPO, could raise $1B at a $9B valuation (WSJ)
  • Le Slip Francais will go public in Paris in mid-July at EUR14.80/share and raise EUR5M
  • Reformation (L.A., womenswear) filed to go public on the NYSE, ticker REF, no size given yet
  • The Center (L.A., backed by Prelude Growth) may sell its body/haircare brand Saltair (WWD)
  • Color Image Apparel (parent to Alo) sold Bella + Canvas to SanMar (WA), amt undisclosed
  • Apothekary (VA, herbal tinctures) raised $10M as part of a Series A with Shiseido, others
  • PetMed Express rec’d a new $3/sh offer from SilverCape, which offered $4/sh in Dec 2025
In chronological order as highlighted by DoRCR, price/value unknown if not indicated

MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT

Out at 8:15 am, ADP Employment for June was slightly better than expected at +98K vs. the Street's +92.5K estimate and a modest slowdown from May's +122K, while pay for those who stayed with their jobs was steady at +4.4% y/y and accelerated to +6.6% for those who changed jobs.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.

Out yesterday, Consumer Confidence for June was weaker than expected at 91.2 vs. the Street's 94.4 estimate but increased slightly from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May, with the slight improvement in large part reflecting the recent decline in fuel prices and easing inflation concerns.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Depressed sentiment does not appear to be holding consumers back based on the latest Retail Sales and what appears to have been a strong Prime Day(s) event last week.

Also out yesterday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $3.83 on average across the US for the week ended 6/29/26, down $0.08 from the prior week but up $0.67 per gallon from the same week last year.

  • A gallon of diesel cost $4.67, down $0.16 on the week but up $0.94 from last year.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas in the $3.80 area is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $4.50+ per gallon is a headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.

Out last Friday, U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) was close to expectations at 49.5 and improved just a bit from the preliminary reading of 48.9, and it was also 10% better than May's final reading of 44.8 as consumer psychology improved with the recent decline in fuel prices.

  • Consumers are also less concerned about the war in Iran's longer-term consequences.
  • Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months are +4.6%, down from +4.8% in May.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The m/m improvement is noteworthy, but this is still the second-lowest reading on record; that said, the depressed sentiment does not appear to be holding consumers back based on the latest Retail Sales and what appears to be another strong Prime Day(s).
Bloomberg

Source: ADP and Bloomberg (for chart)

SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS

Birkenstock (BIRK, $43.03) Raymond James initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $52 price target, sees good revenue growth driven by increased production capacity, diversification of the assortment, deeper penetration with key wholesale partners, new store growth, and international expansion, also thinks the stock should be trading at a higher valuation given 90%+ full-price sell-through and Birkenstock's industry-leading EBIT margins.

Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here

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