Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Independence Day food spending should be strong, Kroger hikes dividend by 11%, EG Group -- owns Cumberland Farms -- going public in the US, Vuori planning to more than double its store base by 2030, good Jobless Claims and spending data...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Independence Day Food Spending, Kroger Hikes Dividend, UK's EG Group Going Public in US...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/22)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/23)
- Amazon Prime Day, runs through Friday
- Kroger meeting with investors in Cincinnati, hosted by Oppenheimer
- Ollie's doing investor meetings in KC/Denver today/tomorrow, hosted by KeyBanc
- G-III Apparel doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Oxford Industries doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by KeyBanc
Wednesday (6/24)
- Citi Trends doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by D.A. Davidson
- Casey's 2026 Investor Day in NYC, starts at 9:30 am and will be webcast
- New Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at 655K SAAR vs. prior 622K
- Havertys Furniture doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Morgan Stanley Consumer & Retail Summit
Thursday (6/25)
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 226K
- Personal Income/Spend for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.5%/+0.5% m/m vs. prior flat/+0.5%
- Retail Marketing Society monthly webinar at noon, focus is wellness and its impact on retail, DoRCR will provide a brief Retail & Consumer update to start the event, info here
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Wolfe Research Virtual Consumer Access Day
Friday (6/26)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 49.2 vs. prior 48.9
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.4% as of ~10:30 am vs. a 0.3% gain in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks include VNCE, WRBY, BOBS, FND and TSCO, all up 4%-6%.
- Weaker retail stocks: CTRN, down 15% as its top holder sells 750K of 2.55M sh, BARK (down 4%), YSWY (down 4%), BRLT (down 4%) and PVH (down 4%, analyst downgrade).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Numerator, which tracks Prime Day stats, will give its next update here at 4:00 pm today, and said in its update yesterday afternoon Amazon's average Prime Day 2026 order size was $46.89, down from $57.12 at the same time during last year's four-day event.
- Average household spend was $104.86, down from $126.26 at the same time last year.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- PVH Corp (PVH, $72.71) BofA downgrades from Neutral to Underperform
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
Spending on Independence Day food items in the US could grow 6% y/y to $9.4B, which would be just shy of the record $9.5B spent in 2023 and assumes an 87% participation rate, up from 86% last year, and per-person spending of $94.41, up 2% from $92.44 last year.
- That's all acc'd to recent survey work by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
70% of US parents plan to shop in-store this year for BTS items, down from 79% in 2025 acc'd to recent survey work by PwC that put average planned spending on apparel and shoes for back-to-school at $278, more than 2x the planned spending for actual school supplies.
- The average back-to-school budget for parents is $922, up 47% from last year.
- 73% of survey respondents plan to use AI research/compare brands/prices, etc.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Kroger (KR, $58.48) is raising its quarterly dividend by 11%, from $0.35 per share to $0.39 per share, record date is 8/15/26, and it's payable 9/1/26 and implies an annualized yield of 2.7%.
Dollar Tree (DLTR, $119.35) #3/6% shareholder Mantle Ridge is selling 12.8M shares of DLTR to JPM and Goldman Sachs via a secondary block trade made pursuant to the SEC's Rule 144, and on completion of the block trade, Dollar Tree will buy $500M of its stock from Goldman Sachs at a price that is equal to that payable by the two broker dealers in the block trade.
- The company is not selling any stock in the block trade and will receive no proceeds.
- Dollar Tree plans to finance the stock buyback, 2.2% of the mkt cap, with cash on hand, and says the $500M purchase will count toward its existing $2.5B buyback authorization.
StockX (sneaker+ resale platform) has launched a new marketplace for the sale of used sneakers, vintage apparel and other items called Stock X Listings Marketplace, uses AI to analyze photos of items and streamline/expedite the listing, including product authentication.
HSG (private equity, formerly Sequoia Capital China) completed its previously announced acquisition of Italy's Golden Goose -- transaction terms were not disclosed -- and is now majority shareholder, while Temasek (Singapore) and its True Light Capital have taken minority positions, and Permira (PE, UK) remains as a strategic minority shareholder.
UK-based EG Group has confidentially filed to go public in the US and could raise ~$1B at a targeted ~$9B valuation acc'd to the WSJ, which notes EG is backed by private equity firm TDR Capital. EG operates fuel/c-stores and owns Cumberland Farms, which operates 1,500+ fuel/c-stores in 25 US states under 11 different banners.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Vuori, a digitally native activewear brand with 100+ stores and valued at $5.5B in 2024 after a secondary tender offer, is planning to more than double its store count to 300+ by 2030 acc'd to President Ashley Kechter, who told the WSJ China will be a major focus, especially Shanghai and Beijing, and said Vuori plans to have 20 stores in China by the end of next year.
American Eagle, which has 800+ AE Brand stores, has signed a lease to open its second US flagship, 14K+ sf, at 600 North Michigan Avenue in Chicago, will open in July 2027, #1 is in NYC.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning, at least domestically...
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 8:30 am, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 were better/lower than expected at 215K vs. the Street's 225K estimate and down 12K from a revised 227K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose by 21K to 1.82M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Also out at 8:30 am, Personal Income for May was stronger than expected at +0.7% m/m vs. the Street's +0.5% estimate, and Personal Spending was also stronger than expected and increased 0.7% vs. the Street's +0.5%, while core inflation increased 3.4% y/y, highest since fall 2023.
- On a y/y basis, consumer spending increased 4.1%, the most since spring 2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Healthy income growth and strong consumer spending trends have continued, with support from an improving/tight labor market, stocks near record highs, and record home equity, which are more than offsetting the impact of higher gas prices and inflation.
Out yesterday, New Home Sales for May were weaker than expected and fell 7% m/m to an annualized 580K vs. the Street's 655K estimate and the lowest rate since January 2026, while the median selling price for a new home rose very slightly y/y, to $424,900.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The housing mkt is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Out Tuesday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $3.91 on average across the US for the week ended 6/22/26, down $0.14 from the prior week but up $0.70 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $4.83, down $0.23 on the week but up $1.06 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas in the $4 area is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at close to $5 per gallon is a headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Source: BEA and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Nike (NKE, $41.82) Needham maintains a Hold rating with no price target in front of 4Q26 (May) results next Tuesday afternoon, says it is cautious on the stock and notes recent checks it says suggest continued pressure on domestic DTC and a tough macro across EMEA, thinks the quarter will be largely in line with expectations but expects mgmt to signal a slow start to 1Q27.
PVH Corp (PVH, $72.71) BofA downgrades from Neutral to Underperform and lowers its target from $90 to $70 on concerns about the company's 50% exposure to EMEA, says demand in the region has softened with war in the Middle East, while margins are also under pressure from this dynamic, tariff costs, licensing transitions and higher marketing expense.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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