Tuesday, August 4, 2026

August 4, 2026

Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Wayfair's revs accelerate, guidance suggests continued momentum, Walmart and Nike downgraded by Opco and JPM, SHEIN now targeting an IPO valuation of only $30B-$40B, a third of the 2022 peak, Havertys' surprisingly strong quarter...

https://dorcr.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/cropped-SkyLineBlank-scaled-3.jpg

DoRCR Reports are for Individual Paid Subscribers | Pls Do Not Share Internally or Externally

DoR Consumer Research

Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer

Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET

Wayfair's Acceleration, Walmart and Nike Downgraded, SHEIN's Lower IPO Valuation Target...

THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR

UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern

Monday (8/3) 

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
  • Sally Beauty reports 3Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 0.3%, EPS of $0.53

Tuesday (8/4)

  • Wayfair reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $3.47B/$0.90
  • Haverty Furniture reports 2Q26, call 10:00 am, no Street estimates
  • Steven Madden meeting with investors in NYC at 10:00 am, hosted by BTIG
  • Revolve reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $341.9M/$0.21
  • Bed Bath & Beyond reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $362.4M/($0.36)

Wednesday (8/5)

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
  • CVS reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps down 0.9%, EPS of $1.85
  • ADP Employment for July at 8:15 am, Street at +75K vs. prior +98K
  • Capri reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $756.6M/$0.40
  • Costco reports July sales at 4:15 pm
  • e.l.f. Beauty reports 1Q27, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $434.0M/$0.72
  • thredUP reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $90.3M/($0.03)
  • a.k.a. Brands reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $162.6M/($0.41)
  • eBay reports 2Q26, call 5:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $3.02B/$1.50

Thursday (8/6)

  • Buckle reports July sales before the open
  • Somnigroup reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.88B/$0.58
  • Warby Parker reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $238.0M/$0.10
  • Bob's Discount Furniture reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, St at comps/EPS of +1.7%/$0.20
  • Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/1/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 206K vs. prior 197K
  • Etsy reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $646.1M/$0.75
  • Arhaus reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps down 1.6%, EPS of $0.16
  • Brilliant Earth reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $111.4M/($0.00)
  • Ralph Lauren reports 1Q27, call 9:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.87B/$4.32
  • Natural Grocers reports 3Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $347.2M/$0.52
  • FIGS reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $186.2M/$0.07
  • The RealReal reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $188.1M/($0.02)

Friday (8/7)

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
  • Nonfarm Payrolls for July at 8:30 am, Street at +100K vs. prior +57K, while Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%, Avg Hourly Earnings at +3.5% y/y vs. prior +3.5%
  • Under Armour reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.11B/$0.02

**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**

TODAY'S EARLY TRADING

The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.6% as of ~10:40 am vs. a 1.1% gain in the S&P 500, which is hitting fresh all-time highs after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping could come soon and as oil prices fall sharply.

  • Stronger retail stocks include W, up 27% after an upside 2Q26, also HVT (up 12%, strong 2Q26), DXLG (up 8%), RH (up 8% in sympathy with W and HVT) and PRPL up 5%).
  • Weaker retail stocks include newly public REF, which is down 4%, also MNSO (down 4%), AKA (down 3%), BARK (down 3%) and BIRK (down 2%).

MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS

All Stock Prices as of Last Close

Wayfair (W, $89.31) had a strong and better-than-expected 2Q26 (June), driven by its US business, which grew revs by 9%, the biggest y/y increase in the post-pandemic period, and more than offset some international softness -- constant-currency revs down 2% -- while adjusted EBITDA grew 18%; management guided 3Q26 revs up by a HSD%, implying continued strong trends.

  • Revs were $3.52B, up 8% y/y and slightly above the Street's $3.47B and incorporated U.S. revs of $3.13B, up 9%, and International revs of $394M, down 2% constant currency.
  • Wayfair's specialty retail brands outperformed significantly in the quarter and grew nearly 20% y/y, and its high-end Perigold business grew revs by 35%+.
  • Sales in Canada and the UK were pressured by a pull-back in discretionary spending.
  • Key metrics: Active customers up 3% y/y to 21.7M after a 1% increase in the first quarter, LTM rev/customer up 4% to $596, orders/customer 1.89 vs. 1.86 last year.
  • Orders delivered increased 6% to 10.6M, and AOV grew 1% y/y to $332.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $242M vs. $205M last year and the Street's $230.2M estimate.
  • On the Call, management guided for another high-single-digit increase in revs in the third quarter, above the Street's +5% estimate, and said gross margin could be closer to the lower end of a 29.5%-30.5% range on investments in the customer experience, including loyalty.
  • CEO Niraj Shah also noted positive signs in the US furniture industry, despite macro uncertainty and slow housing turnover, said it was the "first quarter of flat to slightly positive year-over-year category growth that (the company has) seen" since 2021.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The furniture/furnishings category has declined on a y/y basis for the past few years, but Wayfair is doing better than most and taking significant share as more industry sales shift online; cost-cutting programs, including a downsizing of the corporate workforce, should continue to help the bottom line as Wayfair does more (sales) with less (expenses).

Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:

  • Walmart (WMT, $110.71) Oppenheimer downgrades from Outperform to Perform
  • Nike (NKE, $42.64) JPM downgrades from Neutral to Underweight
  • eBay (EBAY, $107.13) Citizens downgrades from Outperform to Market Perform
  • Adidas (ADS-DE, EUR164.80) UBS downgrades from Buy to Hold
  • PVH (PVH, $88.80) JPM downgrades from Neutral to Underweight

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

Haverty Furniture (HVT, $25.82) had a surprisingly good 2Q26 (June) and comped up 8.0% after +4.3% in the first quarter, grew total sales by 8% to $194.9M, held gross margin essentially flat when excluding benefits the impact of $1.5M of IEEPA tariff refunds, and grew EBITDA by 27%.

  • Sales were strong over the Memorial Day weekend, with avg tickets up double digits.
  • Comp-store written business increased 12% y/y after +7% in the first quarter.
  • Average ticket increased 13% year-over-year, to $3,786, and continues to benefit from the company's design consultants, who drove 36.5% of the written business, up 310 bps.

Amazon said during its 2Q26 call last week customers using Alexa for Shopping, its agentic AI shopping assistant, are spending 40%+ more per order on average and also noted customers who try Alexa+ -- Amazon's more comprehensive next-gen AI assistant, included in a Prime membership -- for the first time are joining Amazon Prime at nearly 25% higher rates.
Whole Foods (Amazon) has been lowering prices and becoming more competitive with Kroger and regional chains, and even Walmart acc'd to Bloomberg, which says Whole Foods has also expanded its 365 private label assortment to "attract inflation-bit shoppers" and cites Numerator data showing the average unit price at Whole Foods up 29% since 2019 vs. Kroger at +38%, Walmart at +36%.
Ferragamo (Italy) joins a list of European luxury brands calling out the US as a key driver of accelerating sales in the second quarter -- Group revs were EUR259M, up 5% y/y in constant currencies, led by strong full-price sales in the US.

Singapore-based SHEIN is targeting a $30B-$40B valuation in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO acc'd to Reuters, which says "cornerstone investors" are pushing for a $30B-$32B valuation and notes the offering could happen as soon as the middle of this month. SHEIN was valued at nearly $100B in 2022, then $64B in 2023 and 2024 after private fundraising rounds. The lower IPO valuation reflects slowing growth following the end of the de minimis exemption.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Onyx Partners (private equity) has offered $930M+ to buy 117 JCPenney stores across 35 states and says it is prepared to close on the transaction on 9/25/26 acc'd to Retail Dive, piece here, notes all 117 stores have long-term leases and would not be operationally impacted by a sale.
Primark, which is part of the UK's AB Foods, will open its 45th US store in a couple weeks, at Orlando Vineland Premium Outlets, 19K sf, will be the second Primark store in Orlando.

MANAGEMENT UPDATES

Best Buy has hired BCG Senior Advisor since 2025, Circana Chief Financial and Growth Officer from 2023-2024, and former Nordstrom, Avery Dennison and Carnival Cruise Line CFO Anne Bramman as CFO, starts 8/19/26 and will succeed Matt Bilunas, who recently stepped down.

MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT

Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.08 on average across the US for the week ended 8/3/26, down $0.02 from the prior week but up $0.94 per gallon from the same week last year.

  • A gallon of diesel cost $5.35, up $0.04 on the week and up $1.55 from last year.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices could come down quickly with a US/Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but for now, the significant y/y increase is a meaningful headwind to discretionary spending, esp by lower-income consumers (e.g. core dollar store customer).

Out Friday, U. Mich. Sentiment (final) for July was 55.2, a slight improvement from the preliminary read of 54.4 and up nearly 12% from June, driven by broad-based improvements across income, education, wealth, age and political affiliation cohorts, though sentiment is down 10% from this time a year ago on concerns about the economy and persistent/cumulative inflation.

  • Year-ahead inflation expectations eased from +4.6% in June to +4.2% in July.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Weak sentiment hasn't kept consumers from spending and hasn't been correlated to Retail Sales, which increased 6.7% y/y in June on a headline basis and 10%+ on a core basis, supported by the strong labor market, wage growth, and stock/housing wealth.

Out Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 7/25/26 were lower than expected at 197K and up 9K from a revised 188K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag and indicate how long it's taking those out of work to find jobs, declined slightly, to 1.78M.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
GasPrices

SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS

Adidas (ADS-DE, EUR164.80) UBS downgrades from Buy to Hold and lowers its target from EUR219 to EUR173 after last week's 2Q26 results, thinks Adidas will continue to generate solid sales growth but expects a tougher macro backdrop to limit upside and keep the stock range-bound.
eBay (EBAY, $107.13) Citizens downgrades from Outperform to Market Perform with no price target in front of 2Q26 results tomorrow afternoon, says the core marketplace continues to perform well but thinks the acquisition of Depop will pressure overall profitability and notes European resale competitor Vinted is making an aggressive push in the US after taking share in the UK.
Nike (NKE, $42.64) JPM downgrades from Neutral to Underweight and lowers its target from $47 to $40, says the termination of online sales through Topsports and Pou Sheng in China could be a $1B revenue headwind next year and thinks decisions made in 2026 around Nike's "Win Now" strategy will weigh on company profitability into fiscal 2028.
PVH (PVH, $88.80) JPM downgrades from Neutral to Underweight but raises its target from $70 to $84, says it has concerns about in-season wholesale sell-throughs and uneven DTC store traffic, also notes indirect pressures on the overall business from war in the Middle East and the extreme heat across Europe this summer and sees downside risk to Street estimates.
Walmart (WMT, $110.71) Oppenheimer downgrades from Outperform to Perform and removes a $140 price target in front of 2Q27 (July) results in two weeks, thinks pharmacy pressures in the US could contribute to a comp shortfall vs. the Street and sees potential for the stock to be re-rated lower if Walmart U.S. comparable sales slow from ~4% into the +2.5%-3.5% area.

Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here

This material is for paid subscribers only

Full Terms of Use are available here

UNAUTHORIZED USE OR DISTRIBUTION IS UNLAWFUL

Disclaimer: DoR Consumer Research publishes a financial report of general and regular circulation which does not offer individualized investment advice attuned to any specific portfolio or any person’s particular needs. No mention of a particular security in our reports constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Any reliance you place on such information is strictly at your own risk.

BEFORE SELLING OR BUYING ANY STOCK OR OTHER INVESTMENT YOU SHOULD CONSULT WITH A QUALIFIED BROKER OR OTHER FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL TO VERIFY PRICING INFORMATION AND TO SOLICIT ADVICE AS TO THE APPROPRIATENESS OF A GIVEN TRANSACTION OR INVESTMENT.