Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Retail stocks had a very good week and are now up again YTD, Children's Place reports another very weak quarter, activewear brand Rhoback getting a $50M investment, store openings continue to outpace closings but by a small margin...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Monday, June 15, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Children's Place Weakness, Rhoback Getting a $50M Investment, Store Openings/Closings...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/15)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- VF Corp doing investor meetings in San Francisco, hosted by Piper Sandler
- FIGS doing investor meetings in NYC, hosted by KeyBanc
Tuesday (6/16)
- Jefferies Consumer Conference today and tomorrow in Nantucket, retailers attending include: Walmart, Macy's, YETI, Arhaus, others to be added as they are announced...
- Housing Starts for May at 8:30 am, Street at down 1.4% m/m vs. prior down 2.8%
- Vince reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $63.0M/($0.19)
- La-Z-Boy reports 4Q26 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $569.2M/$0.82
Wednesday (6/17)
- Retail Sales for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.6% m/m vs. prior +0.5%
- La-Z-Boy 4Q26 call at 8:30 am
- Pending Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at +1.0% m/m vs. prior +1.4%
- a.k.a. Brands at the Planet Micro Cap Las Vegas Conference at 1:15 pm ET
- FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm, investors expect no change in the 3.50%-3.75% target
Thursday (6/18)
- Carter's doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by Needham
- Kroger reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.1%, EPS of $1.59
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 226K vs. prior 229K
- Lowe's participating in a virtual fireside chat at 9:00 am, hosted by Oppenheimer
Friday (6/19)
- Juneteenth observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish today
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.7% as of ~11:00 am vs. a 1.7% gain in the S&P 500, which is getting a lift on weekend news of a preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran.
- Stronger retail stocks include W, REAL, BBBY, BOBS and SFIX, all up 6%-9%.
- Weaker retail stocks include DBGI, DDS, BARK, VRA and YSWY, all down 5%-10%.
Last Week: The XRT rose 6.2% vs. a 0.7% gain in the S&P 500, which was volatile through the week on the latest inflation readings and a brief escalation in hostilities between the US and Iran, then had a good day Friday on reports of a possible peace-deal breakthrough. Retail stocks outperformed as first quarter earnings season wound down and as the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor put core retail sales up a very strong 7.0% y/y in May. Other noteworthy retail developments included the approval of Saks Global's Ch 11 exit by a bankruptcy judge, NRF's forecast for a record Father's Day, with sales expected to rise 16% y/y to $27.9B, and Victoria's Secret's "decisive" win in a proxy fight with its #2 shareholder. Also, Sleep Number filed Ch 11 and said it will be acquired by Sleep Country Canada for $415M, and Numerator said Amazon's four-day Prime Day could generate $11B+ in sales.
- Stronger retail stocks included DLTH, which reported a soft but better-than-expected 1Q26 and held an Investor Day and rose 41% on the week, also ELF (up 23%, spoke at Opco's conf), VRA (up 23%, solid first quarter vs. easy compares), CURV (up 21%) and ANF (up 20%).
- Weaker retail stocks included DBI, which reported a mixed 1Q26 and fell 18% on the week, also SNBR (down 18%), OXM (down 16%, mixed results/guidance), LVLU (down 11%) and CHWY (down 6%, good first quarter but trimmed full-year sales guidance, also downgraded by MoffettNathanson).
2026 Year-to-Date: The XRT is up 2.9% vs. an 8.6% gain in the S&P 500.
- Stronger retail stocks include TLYS, which is up 174%, also DLTH (up 125%), CURV (up 102%), GCO (up 72%) and CASY (up 62%).
- Weaker retail stocks include SNBR, which is down 95%, also DBGI (down 93%), ODD (down 71%), RENT (down 56%) and BBW (down 48%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Total sales fell 11% to $215.2M and incorporated a 10% decline in DTC sales on lower traffic vs. last year and a planned reduction in wholesale shipments.
- Management called out the negative impact of higher gasoline and grocery prices on the company's core value-oriented customer and noted a "challenging retail environment."
- Adjusted EPS were ($2.00) vs. ($1.52) in last year's first quarter and incorporated a 240 bps decrease in adjusted gross margin as pressure points noted above were partially offset by a favorable product mix and a reduction in inventory reserves.
- Inventories look fine and were down 23% y/y at the end of the quarter on improved inventory management as merchants work to better align supply with anticipated demand.
- Children's Place stopped giving guidance and holding calls after Saudi Arabia's Mithaq Capital acquired a controlling 54% stake (now 62%) in the company in early-2024.
- The company did say it has applied for $40M in tariff refunds, that it has received $5.5M back to date, and that it expects tariff refunds to partially offset margin dilution this year.
- PLCE also said it has "actioned" on $45M of gross annualized cost reductions and operational efficiencies toward a goal of $60M by FY27 and noted a partial offset of $10M-$15M in recurring operating costs and a $10M benefit toward the target from a 3P DC exit.
- Quarter-ending store count was 497 total vs. 495 at the end of last year's first quarter.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Children's Place is losing relevance with its target consumer -- young families -- and the problems seem to reflect a variety of factors as sales fall sharply on top of big declines last year and as margins/earnings are impacted by factors that go beyond tariffs; the company's financial position is looking tenuous, and the stock has lost 75%+ since Mithaq got involved.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Designer Brands (DBI, $6.88) shareholder Stone House Capital disclosed a 16% position, switched its investment type from passive to active, and said it plans to engage with management and the board to discuss steps it believes the company can take to improve operational performance, better communicate with investors, and increase shareholder value.
- Stone House believes DBI shares are significantly undervalued and would like to see, among other things, enhanced segment-level disclosure of DBI's Topo Athletic brand.
- Stone House says Topo Athletic is among few athletic brands that have emerged and gained relevance and scale in specialty run in the last 20 years.
- Note the 16% active disclosure was made after the close last Thursday.
Target has brought renowned fashion designer Isaac Mizrahi on board as its first creative director at large and says Mizrahi will collaborate with its internal design teams, mentor design talent within the company, and help elevate "Target's design credibility and cultural relevance," release here.
Dick's Sporting Goods is partnering with Lids, which is owned by PE firm Ames Watson, and has begun rolling out dedicated Lids shop locations inside Dick's stores across the country, with 46 in-store shops already up and running and plans for 100+ shops by late summer, release here, notes LIds has 2K+ stores globally "selling fan and fashion-oriented headwear and apparel."
Frasers Group (UK) has made an all-cash offer to acquire the 77% of shares of Australian sports performance and lifestyle retailer Accent Group it doesn't already own in a deal valued at ~$225M USD and says the tender for ASX shares will begin on 6/30/26 and conclude on 7/30/26.
- Accent has ~900 stores under several banners across Australia and New Zealand.
US activewear brand Rhoback is set to receive $50M from a new LVMH- and pro-athlete-backed fund called Champ and a "handful of other investors" acc'd to the WSJ, which says Champ was formed by LVMH's L Catterton and sports advisory firm Patricof Co., launched a couple months ago, and is looking to raise $500M to invest in "buzzy consumer brands." Rhoback launched in 2016 and is on track to do $200M+ in revs this year. This would be its first-ever outside investment, and some of the funds would go toward store growth.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Floor & Decor (275+ stores) recently announced a couple new store locations, one in Schererville, IN, at 1516-30 U.S. 41, and another in the Houston market, in Meyerland, TX at 4800 W Bellfort Ave, both part of the company's previously announced plan to open 20 stores this year on a base of 270.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Clarification: When discussing a planned CEO succession at Build A Bear here on Friday, we noted Chief Operations and Experience Office Chris Hurt had taken over as CEO from Sharon Price John, who is retiring from the company, as announced in March, but should have also mentioned Price is joining Carter's as CEO, effective today and as announced by Carter's last month.
STORE OPENING/CLOSING ANALYSIS
Significant YTD Announcements
So far this year, US retailers have announced plans to open/close ~3,450/~3,225 stores by our analysis, which covers all sectors except auto retail and excludes opening/closing announcements that were made in 2025 and prior but will carry over into 2026 and beyond.
The numbers this time last week were ~3,370/~3,170, and this time last year we tracked ~3,120/~3,825 YTD announced openings/closings.
For all of 2025, we tracked ~5,525 announced store openings, down 20% from 2024, and ~4,820 announced store closings, down 45% from 2024.
Note that openings/closings are specific numbers that have been announced, not completed, and could extend over several years.
Also note we include select non-US retailers (e.g. ALDI, POP MART, Lululemon) in our totals and small numbers of openings/closings if it's a significant development (e.g. digitally-native brands opening their first stores, highlighted below with an asterisk*), that we don't count concessions, pop-ups, seasonal stores, pilots, JV/partner-operated stores, acquired stores, or conversions, and that our closing tally excludes closings that are part of an ongoing business plan.
Latest Store Opening Announcements: Academy Sports + Outdoors reported a solid and slightly better-than-expected first quarter last week and reaffirmed plans to open 20-25 new stores this year, or 7% y/y unit growth, as part of a plan to open ~125 stores over five years, and Casey's reported a very strong 4Q26 (April) and said it plans to open at least 120 new stores in its FY27, again through a mix of M&A and new store construction.
As we don't include acquired stores in our totals, we are going to assume half of the stores are acquired and half are new builds and include 60 new stores in our totals for 2026.
Fuel/c-store chain Bu-cee's said it would open its first store in Arizona this coming weekend, 74K sf, in Goodyear, will have 120 fueling positions, recently broke ground for its first store in North Carolina, in Mebane, 74K sf, and plans to open stores this year in San Marcos, TX, Benton, AR, and Murfreesboro, TN, followed by six announced new stores in 2027, and another six announced stores for 2028-2029 and beyond, Chain Store Age piece here.
And also last week, Vera Bradley reported a solid first quarter against easy comparisons and said it will open four new Vera Bradley Outlet stores this year on a base of 87, and J.Jill reported a weak first quarter and said it will open 1-5 net new stores this year after previously saying five net new stores.
Latest Store Closing Announcements: West Marine said last week it will close 59 of its 250+ stores as part of it Ch 11, list of stores to close here, from the company's website.
- Dollar Gen (~450 on ~20,900 note)
- Dollar Tree (~400 on 9,282)
- O'Reilly (225-235 net on 6,585 note)
- 7-Eleven NA (200+ on 13K+)
- ALDI U.S. (180+ on 2,600+ note)
- Five Below (~150 net on 1,921)
- TJX (146 net on 5,200+ globally)
- Yesway (130 on ~450)
- Academy Sports (~125 on 322 note)
- Casey's (120+ on 2,900+ note)
- Burlington (115 net on 1,212)
- Ross Stores (110 on 1,900+)
- Kroger (105-120 on ~2,800)
- Goodwill (100+ on ~3,400)
- Whole Foods (100 on 550+)
- Tractor Supply (~100 on ~2,400 note)
- Sheetz (100 on 830+)
- Paymore (90+ on 100+)
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet (75 on 645)
- Boot Barn (70 on 539)
- Citi Trends (~65 on 590+)
- Bath & Body Wks (60+ net on 2,500)
- CVS (~60 on ~9K note)
- Barnes & Noble (60 on 670)
- Urban Outfitters (54 on 784 owned)
- Levi Strauss (50-60 net on 3,400+)
- Ulta Beauty (50-60 net on 1,591)
- Build-A-Bear (50+ net on 660+ note)
- Abercrombie (50 on 829 owned)
- Warby Parker* (50 on 323)
- Perfumania (43 on 280+)
- Advance Auto (40-45 on 4,300+)
- Lululemon (40-45 net owned on 811)
- Aerie and OFFLINE (~40 on 330+)
- Fabletics* (40 on 120)
- Dick's House of Sport (32 on 35 note)
- Grocery Outlet (30-33 net on 570)
- Target (30+ on ~2K note)
- Trader Joe's (30+ on 600+)
- Birkenstock Amer (30 net on ~15)
- Ernesta* (26 on 4)
- Fleet Feet + Marathon (~25 on 310+)
- Genesco (23 on 1,236)
- Nordstrom Rack (23 in 2026 on ~300)
- Dick's Field House (22 on 42 note)
- POP MART (20+ on 60+)
- Walmart U.S. (~20 on 4,600+ note)
- Love's Travel Stops (20 on ~670)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 on 512)
- Floor & Decor (20 on 270)
- Bob's Discount Furn (~20 on 209)
- Kendra Scott (20 on ~170 note)
- HEYDUDE (~20 mostly outlets on 75)
- Cotopaxi* (20 on 20)
- Bu-cee's (17 announced on ~55)
- Home Depot (~15 on 2,359)
- Windsor (15 on ~350)
- Golf Galaxy (~15 on 113)
- UNIQLO USA (14 on 78)
- Aritzia (12-13 mostly US on 144 total)
- Caleres (12 on ~820)
- Shoe Carnival/Station (11-15 on 426)
- The Buckle (11-13 net on 440)
- Advance Mega Hub (10-15 on 33)
- Garage (10-12 net on 300)
- Signet Jewelers (up to 10 on 2,582)
- Publix (~10 on 1,400+)
- Cato (up to 10 on 1,070)
- IKEA US (10 on 54)
- Vivaia* (10 on 1)
- Lovesac (8 net on 278)
- a.k.a.'s Princess Polly* (8 on 13 US)
- Salomon (7-10 on 2 US)
- Purple (7 on 55)
- BYLT* (7 on 15)
- Haverty Furniture (6 net on 129)
- Big Y (6 on 77)
- RH (6 on 75)
- Zumiez (5 US on 716 total worldwide)
- Boll & Branch* (5 on 15)
- Whole Foods Daily Market (5 on 5)
- Kurt Geiger London (5 on 5 US)
- Wayfair* (5 on 2 note)
- Arhaus (4-6 on 107)
- U.S. Polo Assn. (4 on 1,200+)
- Food Lion (4 on 1,100+)
- Best Buy (4 net US on 1K+ in NA)
- Tilly's (4 on 224)
- Ocean State Job Lot (4 on 175)
- Vera Bradley Outlet (4 on 87)
- Chair King (4 on 52)
- FIGS* (4 on 5)
- Ana Luisa* (4 on 2)
- Meijer (3 on 500+)
- Madewell (3 on ~150)
- Bassett Furniture (3 on 86)
- Albertsons' Tom Thumb (3 on ~70)
- Brilliant Earth* (3 on 42)
- Suitsupply (3 US on ~40 US)
- Whole Foods Mkt Daily Shop (3 on 8)
- Brochu Walker (3 on 5)
- BRUNT Workwear (3 on 0)
- CardVault by Tom Brady (2 on 10)
- Yellow Rose Kendra Scott* (2 on 3)
- Amazon* Big Box (2 on 0)
- Cider* (2 on 0)
- J.Jill (1-5 net on 256)
- Thursday Boot Company* (1 on 4)
- Revolve* (1 on 2)
- Povision* (1 on 0)
- GameStop (700+ US of 2,300+ note)
- 7-Eleven NA (645 of 13K+)
- Francesca's (450+ of 450+)
- Family Dollar (350+ of 7,450+)
- Eddie Bauer US + Can (~175 of ~175)
- Signet Jewelers (~100 of 2,582)
- Value City Furniture (79 of 79)
- Dollar Tree (~75 of 9,282)
- Genesco (75 of 1,236)
- West Marine (59 of 250+)
- Saks OFF 5TH (57 of 69)
- Amazon Fresh (57 of 57)
- Cato (up to 40 of 1,070)
- Grocery Outlet (36 of 570)
- CVS (~35 of ~9K note)
- Zumiez (26 of 716 total worldwide)
- American Eagle (20-25 AE of 805 AE)
- Abercrombie (20 of 829 owned)
- Williams-Sonoma (~20 of 512)
- Allbirds* US full-price (~20 of ~20)
- Urban Outfitters (19 of 784 owned)
- Shoe Carnival/Station (18-24 of 426)
- Saks Fifth Avenue full-line (18 of 33)
- Petco (15-20 net of 1,382)
- Caleres (15 of ~820)
- Fossil (15 of 199)
- Amazon Go (15 of 15)
- Albertsons (14 net of 2,200+)
- Ross Stores (10-15 of 1,900+)
- Amer. Signature Furniture (10 of 10)
- Tilly's (6 of 224)
- Sportsman's Warehouse (5 of ~150)
- Neiman Marcus Last Call (5 of 5)
- Neiman Marcus full-line (4 of 36)
- Apple US retail (3 of ~270)
- Vince (3 net of 60)
- Nordstrom (2 of ~90 full-line)
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out Friday, U. Mich. Sentiment for June (preliminary) was better than expected at 48.9 vs. the Street's 47.8 estimate and a meaningful improvement from May's final reading of 44.8 (record low) as concerns about fuel and energy prices eased a bit with the recent downtrend.
- Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months are +4.6% y/y, down from +4.8%.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: As we've discussed, there has been essentially no correlation between sentiment and spending, as retail sales have remained very strong in recent months, but we'll take this as a small incremental positive going into a big retail stretch later this month with Amazon's four-day Prime Day event and all the competing events by other major retailers.
Out Thursday, the Producer Price Index for May was slightly "hotter" than expected at +6.5% y/y vs. the Street's +6.4% estimate and up significantly from a downwardly revised +5.7% in April, while core PPI excluding food and energy was unchanged from April at +4.9% y/y.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Inflation is taking its direction from fuel prices, which have spiked with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, so where we go from here is highly contingent on whether or not the US and Iran can reach an agreement to end the war and reopen the strait.
Also out Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/6/26 were higher than expected at 229K vs. the Street's 216K estimate and up 4K from the prior week but still on the low side historically, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose slightly, to 1.80M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Source: University of Michigan and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Walmart (WMT, $121.05) TD Cowen maintains a Buy rating and $150 target and says WMT is still its 2026 Best Idea after hosting a group dinner with IR, says it came away more positive on Walmart's ability to sustain profitable share gains, driven by price leadership, faster delivery driving greater frequency, customer acquisition and member conversion, and bottom line benefits from growth in higher-margin revenue streams, including advertising, marketplace and membership.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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