Friday, July 31, 2026

July 31, 2026

Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Amazon's very strong 2Q26 and sequential acceleration, Floor & Decor beats low expectations, notes intra-quarter improvement, Columbia's mixed 2Q26 and incremental caution on 2H26, another BTS forecast, sentiment improves slightly...

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DoR Consumer Research

Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer

Friday, July 31, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET

Amazon's Sequential Acceleration + Results from Floor & Decor, Columbia and Carter's...

NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR

UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern

Monday (8/3) 

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
  • Sally Beauty reports 3Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 0.3%, EPS of $0.53

Tuesday (8/4)

  • Wayfair reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $3.47B/$0.90
  • Haverty Furniture reports 2Q26, call 10:00 am, no Street estimates
  • Steven Madden meeting with investors in NYC at 10:00 am, hosted by BTIG
  • Revolve reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $341.9M/$0.21
  • Bed Bath & Beyond reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $362.4M/($0.36)

Wednesday (8/5)

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
  • CVS reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps down 0.9%, EPS of $1.85
  • ADP Employment for July at 8:15 am, Street at +75K vs. prior +98K
  • Capri reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $756.6M/$0.40
  • Costco reports July sales at 4:15 pm
  • e.l.f. Beauty reports 1Q27, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $433.4M/$0.72
  • thredUP reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $90.3M/($0.03)
  • a.k.a. Brands reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $162.9M/($0.35)
  • eBay reports 2Q26, call 5:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $3.02B/$1.50

Thursday (8/6)

  • Buckle reports July sales before the open
  • Somnigroup reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.88B/$0.58
  • Warby Parker reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $238.0M/$0.10
  • Bob's Discount Furniture reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, St at comps/EPS of +1.7%/$0.20
  • Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/1/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 205K vs. prior 197K
  • Etsy reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $646.1M/$0.75
  • Arhaus reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps down 1.6%, EPS of $0.16
  • Brilliant Earth reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $111.5M/($0.00)
  • Ralph Lauren reports 1Q27, call 9:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.86B/$4.29
  • Natural Grocers reports 3Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $347.2M/$0.52
  • FIGS reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $186.2M/$0.07
  • The RealReal reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $188.1M/($0.02)

Friday (8/7)

  • DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
  • Nonfarm Payrolls for July at 8:30 am, Street at +82.5K vs. prior +57K, while Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%, Avg Hourly Earnings at +0.3% m/m vs. prior +0.3%
  • Under Armour reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $1.11B/$0.02

**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**

TODAY'S EARLY TRADING

The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.9% as of ~11:00 am vs. a slight gain in the S&P 500.

  • Weaker retail stocks include volatile DBGI, which is down 8%, also W (down 4%), COLM (down 4% after results), ODD (down 4%) and SHOO (down 4%).
  • Stronger retail stocks include AMZN, which is up 15% after a very strong 2Q26, DXLG (up 14%, we're not seeing anything), GIL (up 6%), PRPL (up 6%) and BABA (up 5%).

MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS

All Stock Prices as of Last Close

Amazon (AMZN, $235.50) had a very strong and better-than-expected 2Q26 (June), with broad-based sequential acceleration in the business, especially AWS, which grew 37% y/y after +28% in the first quarter, but also in online stores, which grew 15% y/y after +9% and got a nice lift from an earlier Prime Day and also continued to benefit from faster deliveries of online orders.

  • Sales were $200.61B, up 20% y/y in constant currencies, above the Street's $197.04B, and incorporated 16% growth in North America to $116.18B after +12% in the first quarter.
  • International sales grew 15% in constant currencies after +11% in the first quarter, and AWS grew 37% to $42.23B after 28% growth in the first quarter.
  • Constant-currency online store sales grew 15% to $70.43B after +9% in the first quarter, while physical store sales grew 4% to $5.79B after +4%, advertising services grew 26% to $19.81B after +22%, and subscription services grew 12% to $13.73B after +12%.
  • Operating income was $27.5B vs. $19.2B last year and the Street's $23.56B.
  • 3Q26: Sales of $197B-$202B, which implies 9%-12% y/y growth and includes a slight negative impact from forex and compares to the Street's $203.91B, and operating income of $22.5B-$26.5B vs. $17.4B last year and the Street's $24.98B estimate.
  • The 9%-12% sales growth in the third quarter would be 400 bps higher if Prime Day was excluded from the comparison for both 2025 and 2026.
  • For the year, Amazon now plans to invest $220B in capex, up from a prior $200M.
  • On the Call, CFO Brian Olsavsky said Amazon rec'd ~$600M in tariff refunds in the quarter and said it will put some of the funds into lowering prices, "like other larger retailers," while it may give refunds to certain customers if it can trace "specific import charges" it passed on.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Keeping the focus on Amazon's retail business, things continue to look very good as faster delivery drives incremental sales to sticky Prime members and lower cost-to-serve after heavy investment drives strong profitability gains.

Floor & Decor (FND, $55.30) had a tough but better-than-expected 2Q26 (June) and called out sequential improvement in comps through the quarter, from (5.1%) in April to almost flat in June, while also noting continued "uneven" demand for bigger, more discretionary home flooring projects, and mgmt maintained full-year comp guidance of (4%) to flat but bumped up EPS.

  • Comps decreased 2.1% after (3.7%) in the first quarter and were better than the Street's (3.6%) estimate, while total sales grew 3% y/y to $1.25B on unit growth, including five new warehouse stores in the quarter, which took total warehouse stores to 281.
  • Adjusted EPS were flat y/y at $0.58 vs. the Street's $0.57 estimate and incorporated a 20 bps decrease in gross margin after a 20 bps improvement in the first quarter.
  • Inventories look fine and were down 6% y/y after being down 3% in the first quarter.
  • Full-year sales are still expected at $4.77B-$4.99B vs. $4.68B in 2025 and including $65M from a 53rd week, while adjusted EPS are now expected at $1.88-$2.13 vs. $1.92 in 2025 and a prior $1.83-$2.08 and still including $0.08 from the extra week.
  • Plans still call for 20 new warehouse stores this year on a base of 270 to end 2025.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Floor & Decor executes well and has plenty of long-term growth opportunity with only ~280 stores currently, but business is relatively dependent on the housing market, which continues to be very difficult overall with high mortgage rates, high prices, and low supply.

Columbia Sportswear (COLM, $62.79) had a mixed 2Q26 (June) with soft but better-than-expected sales up 1% y/y in constant currencies after a 3% decrease in the first quarter and a slight EPS miss when excluding a $0.93 benefit from IEEPA tariff recovery, and management maintained full-year sales guidance -- while also noting its outlook for 2H26 has "incrementally moderated" b/c of geopolitical and macro headwinds -- and raised EPS to reflect the tariff refunds.

  • Sales were $614.4M vs. the Street's $607.0M and incorporated DTC sales of $318.4M, flat y/y constant currency, and wholesale sales of $296.0M, up 3%, also a 4% decline in the US, 13% growth in LATAM and APAC, 8% growth in EMEA, and a 9% decrease in Canada.
  • Sales of the Columbia brand were $556.2M, up 1% y/y in constant currency, while SOREL sales fell 14%, prAna sales grew 14%, and Mountain Hardwear sales increased 6%.
  • Sales of apparel/accessories/equipment increased 1%, and sales of footwear grew 5%.
  • EPS were $0.52 vs. ($0.19) last year and the Street's ($0.39) estimate and would have been ($0.41) absent the tariff recovery, which benefited gross margin by 980 bps.
  • Excluding the tariff recovery, gross margin decreased 60 bps on unfavorable channel profitability b/c of increased promotional activity within the DTC brick-and-mortar biz.
  • Inventories were down 6% y/y at quarter's end, while Columbia continues to have one of the strongest balance sheets in retail -- $625M of cash and short-term investments, no debt.
  • 2026 guidance still includes sales of $3.43B-$3.50B, up 1%-3% y/y, and now assumes 160-180 bps of gross margin improvement on the tariff refunds, while EPS are now expected at $4.45-$4.90 vs. $3.24 in 2025 and a prior range of $3.55-$4.00.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Columbia is trying to attract a younger, more active customer to its primary Columbia brand, and there have been some good early indicators from the "Engineered for Whatever" campaign and from new product collections, but competition is stiff with newer, trendier, and more premium brands like Arc'teryx, also VF's still-powerful North Face brand.

INDUSTRY INSIGHT

Back-to-school shoppers are planning to spend an average of $944 across categories, up slightly from last year acc'd to recent survey work by ICSC, which found 91% of respondents saying they have shopped or expect to shop at a physical store for BTS items and 51% saying they are using buy online, pick-up in-store for fulfillment of their online orders.

  • Parents of school-age children plan to spend an average of $820 over the season, up nearly $100 from last year, and plan to focus their back-to-school purchases on apparel and footwear (87%), then school supplies (77%) and electronics (54%).
  • 57% of respondents said they did all or most of their back-to-school shopping during the early promotions in June, including Prime Day, Walmart Deals, and Target Circle Deal Days.
  • Back-to-school shoppers in general are concerned about affordability this year.

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

Carter's (CRI, $37.79) had a better-than-expected 2Q26 (June) and credited improved marketing, early benefits from productivity initiatives, and progress in the Baby segment, and management trimmed full-year sales guidance and guided for a smaller y/y earnings decline.

  • Total sales grew 5% y/y to $615.5M vs. the Street's $607.0M estimate and incorporated U.S. Retail comparable sales of +5.1% after +10.5% in the first quarter.
  • Adjusted EPS ex tariff recovery were $0.26 vs. $0.17 last year and the Street's $0.06.
  • Full-year guidance calls for sales to grow 2%-3% from $2.90B in 2025 and for a high-single-digit to low-double-digit % decline in adjusted EPS from $3.47 last year.

King Kullen, which is family-owned and has 24 supermarkets and four Wild by Nature natural foods stores on Long Island, is being acquired family-owned Giunta's Meat Farms, which has 10 stores on Long Island, for an undisclosed amount, and the transaction is expected to close in September.
Sainsbury's (UK) is selling its Argos standalone stores, stores inside Sainsbury's supermarkets, sales channels, brands, logistics network and its Argos Care and Argos Pet Insurance businesses to a newly formed investment firm called Swift Partners for GBP120M+, or $160M+, and the deal is expected to be completed in February 2027, with full separation from Sainsbury's by February 2029.

Gordon Brothers has made an offer for the UK's Harvey Nichols acc'd to Sky News, which notes Gordon Brothers owns several UK retailers, including Poundland, and says Frasers Group and Next are still the leading bidders. Harvey Nichols is owned by Hong Kong billionaire Dickson Poon and operates department stores in the UK and Ireland, the Middle East and Hong Kong.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Sprouts, which has ~490 stores in 25 states, said yesterday it plans to open 42 net new stores this year, including at least 15 in the third quarter, the company's "largest quarterly opening cadence to date," and also said it has 110+ executed leases and 155 approved new stores "in the pipeline."
New Balance, which has ~4K stores globally, including ~1,570 in the US, has opened its first West Coast flagship, 4,400 sf across two levels, at The Grove in Los Angeles.

MANAGEMENT UPDATES

Adidas CFO for the past nine years and company exec for nearly 30 years Harm Ohlmeyer is stepping down and will be succeeded by C&A (European fashion brand) CFO since 2021 and former Adidas financial and e-commerce exec from 2010-2020 Birgit Kretschmer at the end of the year.

MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT

Out at 10:00 am, U. Mich. Sentiment (final) for July was 55.2, a slight improvement from the preliminary read of 54.4 and up nearly 12% from June, driven by broad-based improvements across income, education, wealth, age and political affiliation cohorts, though sentiment is down 10% from this time a year ago on concerns about the economy and persistent/cumulative inflation.

  • Year-ahead inflation expectations eased from +4.6% in June to +4.2% in July.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Weak sentiment hasn't kept consumers from spending and hasn't been correlated to Retail Sales, which increased 6.7% y/y in June on a headline basis and 10%+ on a core basis, supported by the strong labor market, wage growth, and stock/housing wealth.

Out yesterday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 7/25/26 were lower than expected at 197K and up 9K from a revised 188K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag and indicate how long it's taking those out of work to find jobs, declined slightly, to 1.78M.

  • DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.

Also out yesterday, Personal Income for June was slightly below expectations at +0.2% m/m vs. the Street's +0.4% estimate and after +0.7% in May, while Personal Spending was slightly below expectations at +0.3% vs. the Street's +0.5% estimate and after a revised +0.9% in May.

  • The Personal Savings rate declined to 2.7% in June, the lowest in four years.
  • DoRCR INSIGHT: Consumer spending grew by a 3.2% annual rate in the second quarter, a significant acceleration from +0.5% in 1Q26, driven in part by tax refunds/cuts, wage growth, and, to some extent, stock market gains, also some tapping of personal savings.
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SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS

O'Reilly (ORLY, $87.36) TD Cowen reiterates a Buy rating but lowers its target from $117 to $110 after 2Q26 (June) results and reiterates ORLY as its top idea, says the quarter was strong, especially when considering a tougher backdrop, also says total market share growth continues to accelerate and hit 9.4%, up 50 bps y/y, while DIFM market share was 9.3%, up 80 bps.

Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here

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