Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: La-Z-Boy outperforming in a still-tough furniture industry, AutoZone adds $1.5B to its stock buyback program, Retail Sales for May come in very strong, as was widely expected, analysts defend Gildan after short-seller report, BBBY buying Fathom...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
LZB Outperforming Industry, AZO Adds to Buyback, Strong Retail Sales in May, As Expected...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/15)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- VF Corp doing investor meetings in San Francisco, hosted by Piper Sandler
- FIGS doing investor meetings in NYC, hosted by KeyBanc
Tuesday (6/16)
- Jefferies Consumer Conference today and tomorrow in Nantucket, retailers attending include: Walmart, Macy's, YETI, Arhaus, others to be added as they are announced...
- Housing Starts for May at 8:30 am, Street at down 1.4% m/m vs. prior down 2.8%
- Vince reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $63.0M/($0.19)
- La-Z-Boy reports 4Q26 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $569.2M/$0.82
Wednesday (6/17)
- FIGS doing meetings in Chicago/Milwaukee today/tomorrow, hosted by KeyBanc
- Retail Sales for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.6% m/m vs. prior +0.5%
- La-Z-Boy 4Q26 call at 8:30 am
- Pending Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at +1.0% m/m vs. prior +1.4%
- a.k.a. Brands at the Planet Micro Cap Las Vegas Conference at 1:15 pm ET
- FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm, investors expect no change in the 3.50%-3.75% target
Thursday (6/18)
- Carter's doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by Needham
- Kroger reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.1%, EPS of $1.59
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 229K
- Lowe's participating in a virtual fireside chat at 9:00 am, hosted by Oppenheimer
Friday (6/19)
- Juneteenth observed, US stock and bond markets closed, DoRCR will not publish today
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 0.6% as of ~10:55 am vs. a 0.2% decline in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are underperforming despite very strong Retail Sales for May as the numbers were not surprising and were right in line with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, out last week.
- Weaker retail stocks include YSWY, which is down 4%, also ZGN (down 3%, analyst downgrade), WWW (down 3%), SFIX (down 3%) and SFM (down 3%).
- Stronger retail stocks include SNBR, which recently filed Ch 11 but hasn't been delisted yet and is up 140%+, also LZB (up 15%, upside April quarter), VRA (up 11%, insider buying), GIL (up 5%, recovering a bit from yesterday as analysts defend) and PLCE (up 4%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Written same-store sales decreased 2% after a 4% decline in the fourth quarter and were strongest in April, and the stronger (positive) trend continued through May.
- The better comp trend was driven by higher conversion rates, average ticket and design sales, which partially offset lower customer traffic in the quarter.
- Delivered retail sales grew 9% y/y to $270M, mostly on contribution from acquired and new stores, while wholesale sales decreased 2% to $393M.
- Adjusted EPS were $1.26 vs. $0.92 last year and the Street's $0.82 estimate.
- Inventories are lean and were down 14% y/y at the end of the quarter.
- La-Z-Boy grew its company-owned store network by four stores in the quarter and finished with 230 company-owned stores, or 61% of the total 378 store network.
- In April, the board authorized a $300M stock buyback program, replaces the prior one.
- First quarter sales are expected at $490M-$510M, which implies organic growth of 4% at the high-end, while adjusted op margin is expected at 4.0%-5.5% vs. 4.8% last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: A solid report amid a tough furniture industry backdrop with elevated mortgage and interest rates contributing to slow housing turnover and softness in bigger-ticket purchases, speaks to company-specific drivers, including divestitures of non-core businesses and greater focus on the core, vertically-integrated North American upholstery operation.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Carter's (CRI, $41.10) Wells Fargo upgrades from Underweight to Equal Weight
- Boot Barn (BOOT, $162.52) TD Cowen calls the stock its Best Smidcap Idea
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
AutoZone's (AZO, $3127.79) board has authorized the repurchase of an add'l $1.5B of its common stock, or nearly 3% of yesterday's closing market cap of $51.06B.
Gildan (GIL, $50.34) shares fell 19% yesterday in reaction to a negative/short report from Jehoshaphat Research, and the company issued a statement here saying it is "confident that its current disclosure provides its investors with accurate and comprehensive information regarding Gildan, including with respect to its financial information and governance practices."
- Gildan also reiterated financial guidance given with 1Q26 (March) results on 4/30/26.
- Jehoshaphat alleges Gildan has been inflating revs through "channel stuffing."
Advance Auto Parts (AAP, $60.37) is expanding its partnership with AI-native OneRail and will broaden its use of OneRail's delivery orchestration platform in support of faster and more efficient same-day delivery across the Advance Auto Parts store base, press release here.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $89.06) has begun selling outside footwear brands, including Sperry, Puma, Frye, Hunter and GH Bass, though availability is limited -- only Sperry and Puma are being sold online, while only one store, Abercrombie's new 10K sf flagship in NYC (SoHo), is sellling all the brands -- with potential expansion both online and in-store pending performance.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, $6.02) is buying Fathom Holdings (FTHM, $0.63) as part of an ongoing build-out of its "Everything Home Strategy" and expects to close the all-stock transaction -- implied value is ~$55M -- in 2H26. Fathom is based in NC and operates a national, tech-driven real estate services platform spanning residential brokerage, mortgage, title, insurance and other services, all powered by its proprietary cloud-based software platform, intelliAgent.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Trader Joe's (600+ stores) has opened a new store in a new mixed-use development in Alpharetta, GA (Atlanta market), called Medley, developed by Toro Development Company; Trader Joe's has opened its store early as the official grand opening for Medley isn't until late-October.
Allen Edmonds, which has nearly 60 stores and is part of Caleres, has opened a new store in Charleston, SC, location is 337 King Street in the historic shopping district and is a "Port Washington Studio" store, which are approaching 20 in total and significantly outperforming.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 10:00 am, Pending Home Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 3.8% m/m vs. the Street's +1.0% and after a downwardly-revised +0.3% in April, while Pending Home Sales increased nearly 5% on a year-over-year basis compared to May 2025.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Great to see, but the housing mkt is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Out at 8:30 am, headline Retail Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 0.9% m/m vs. the Street's +0.6% estimate after a slightly revised +0.4% increase in April, while Retail Sales excluding autos and fuel increased 0.5% in May after a 0.5% m/m increase in April.
- Eleven of 13 merchandise categories grew sales on a month-to-month basis.
- On a year-over-year basis, headline Retail Sales grew 6.9%, best since early-2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is consistent with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales ex fuel/autos/restaurants up 7.0% y/y in May, driven by factors including bigger tax refunds than last year, accelerating jobs growth and the strong stock market.
Out yesterday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.05 on average across the US for the week ended 6/15/26, down $0.10 from the prior week but up $0.91 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.06, down $0.15 on the week but up $1.49 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas at $4+ is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Source: Commerce Dept and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Boot Barn (BOOT, $162.52) TD Cowen maintains its Buy rating and $225 target and calls BOOT its Best Smidcap Idea, cites the brand's dominant position in the fragmented $58B Western and Work industry and what it believes is a 20% annual EPS growth algorithm, driven by annual new store growth of 12%-15%, positive low- to mid-single-digit comps, and margin improvement, expects the store base to grow from the current ~540 to a targeted 1,200 stores over time.
Carter's (CRI, $41.10) Wells Fargo upgrades from Underweight to Equal Weight and raises its target from $30 to $42, says the company has an improved leadership team under new CEO Sharon Price John (former Build-A-Bear CEO) and notes DTC growth through new strategies and what it believes is underappreciated upside from lower tariffs, also thinks 2Q26 results will be a positive catalyst.
Gildan (GIL, $50.34) UBS reiterated its Buy rating and $110 target yesterday afternoon, views the selloff in the stock, driven by a negative/short report from a research firm, as a big buying opportunity, and thinks Gildan is well positioned to at least meet its 2026 revenue guidance, also thinks the company's investor event in December will be a positive catalyst.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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