Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Casey's strong/profitable momentum continues, Chewy reports a good quarter but trims full-year sales, J.Jill reports a weak first quarter, some b/c of assortment issues, Walmart Deals will overlap Prime Day, inflation heats up in May, as expected...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Casey's Strong Momentum, Chewy Trims Full-Year Sales, Inflation Heats Up, As Expected...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/8)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- Capri Holdings doing investor meetings this week, hosted by Maxim
- Duluth Trading reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $93.7M/($0.39)
- Duluth Trading Investor Day at 11:00 am, will be webcast
Tuesday (6/9)
- Macy's at the Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference
- e.l.f. Beauty at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference
- Lands' End reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, no Street consensus estimates
- Designer Brands reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.03
- Existing Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at 4.07M SAAR vs. prior 4.02M
- Academy Sports reports 1Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at comps up 2.5%, EPS of $0.91
- FIGS at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at noon
- Walmart at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at 3:00 pm
- Casey's reports 4Q26 after the close, Street at comps up 4.9%, EPS of $3.31
- BARK reports 4Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $96.3M/($0.35)
- Tapestry doing a dinner with investors in NYC, hosted by BTIG
Wednesday (6/10)
- Steve Madden doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by Needham
- Chewy reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $3.35B/$0.24
- J.Jill reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps down 7.9%, EPS of $0.42
- Consumer Price Index for May at 8:30 am, Street at +4.2% y/y vs. prior +3.8%
- Casey's 4Q26 call at 8:30 am
- Walmart at the Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference at 9:50 am
- Fossil doing a call with investors at noon, hosted by Northland
- Oxford Industries reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $391.8M/$1.29
- Stitch Fix reports 3Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $333.5M/($0.06)
Thursday (6/11)
- Walmart doing meetings at the D.A. Davidson Technology & Consumer Conference
- Producer Price Index for May at 8:30 am, Street at +6.4% y/y vs. prior +6.0%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/6/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 216K vs. prior 225K
- Lovesac reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $136.3M/($1.05)
- Vera Bradley reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, no Street consensus estimates
- RH reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $792.6M/($2.12)
Friday (6/12)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- Lovesac at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at 9:45 am
- U. Mich. Sentiment for June (preliminary) at 10:00 am, Street at 47.8 vs. prior 44.8
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.8% as of ~11:05 am vs. a 1.0% decline in the S&P 500, which is lower after the US strikes Iranian targets following the shooting down of a US helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz and as concerns build about a re-escalation in the conflict. Stocks are also being pressured by the latest CPI data showing y/y headline inflation at a 3-year high.
- Stronger retail stocks include SNBR, up 30% on continued bankruptcy-concern volatility, also CASY (up 14% on strong results), DBGI (up 9%), WOOF (up 9%) and LANV (up 9%).
- Weaker retail stocks include PVH, CHWY, CROX, LVLU and AS, all down 3% or so.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Casey's also announced a 14% hike in the quarterly dividend, to $0.65 per share, and an expansion of its existing stock buyback program to up to $1B, or ~3.5% of the mkt cap.
- Inside same-store sales increased 5.5% vs. the Street's +4.9% estimate, while same-store fuel gallons increased 1.5%, and total revenues grew 15% y/y, to $4.57B.
- Inside sales were driven by strong sales of whole pizzas, appetizers and sides in prepared food as well as strength in dispensed and non-alcoholic beverages.
- Reported EPS increased 65%+ y/y to $4.37 vs. the Street's $3.31 and incorporated 120 bps of inside margin expansion on cost of goods management, improved waste performance and mix, while fuel margin was 46.9 cents per gallon vs. 37.6 cents last year.
- FY27 guidance includes 2%-5% growth in inside same-store sales, an inside margin of 42%+ vs. 42.2% in FY26, fuel gallons sold down 1% to up 1%, 5%-7% y/y growth in total operating expenses, and 8%-10% growth in EBITDA from FY26's $1.48B.
- Casey's has 2,900+ stores and plans to open at least 120 new stores in its FY27, again through a mix of M&A and organic new store construction.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Casey's has a strong/consistent model, executes well, and continues to grow its in-store food biz while effectively managing fuel margins, and RTO and increased travel are secular positives with more driving, fueling up stops, etc; Casey's is also a safe haven from tariffs, which explains some of the stock's strength, up 50%+ since the beginning of the year.
- Sales were $3.36B, up 8% y/y, slightly above the Street's $3.35B, and reflecting 3% growth in active customers, to 21.5M, and 2% growth in annualized sales per customer, to $597, also 11% growth in Autoship sales, to $2.83B, or 84% of total sales vs. 82% last year.
- Adjusted EBITDA grew 30%+ y/y to $253.1M vs. the Street's $241.6M, while adjusted EBITDA margin increased 130 bps and incorporated 50 bps of gross margin improvement.
- Mgmt trimmed full-year sales by $200M and now expects $13.40B-$13.55B vs. $12.60B in FY25, while adjusted EBITDA margin is still expected at 6.6%-6.8% vs. 5.7% in FY25.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: 80%+ of Chewy's sales are in non-discretionary merch, and the company's sticky Autoship program adds another element of stability/predictability to the model; Chewy is also gaining meaningful US share and has a big international growth opportunity.
- Total company comparable sales fell 8.7% on top of (5.7%) last year and were below the Street's (7.9%) estimate, while total sales decreased 6% to $144.4M and incorporated an 8% decline in DTC sales, to $65.8M, or 45.6% of total sales in the quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $16.7M vs. $27.3M last year and the Street's $16.5M estimate and incorporated 350 bps of gross margin pressure and 280 bps of SG&A de-leverage.
- Ending inventory was up 5% y/y but would have been down absent net tariff costs.
- Full-year earnings guidance still assumes a 50 bps decrease in gross margin, though now with $14.5M of net-cost impact from tariffs vs. a prior $15M, and guidance also assumes no tariff refund benefit and net new store growth of 1-5 new stores on a base of 256 stores.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The 8.7% decline in comparable sales follows (4.8%) in the fourth quarter and (0.9%) in the third quarter, even as J.Jill cycled a significantly easier comparison in the first quarter, and some of this reflects issues with the current merchandise assortment and a shift in customer focus away from full price and toward promotions and discounts.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Nike (NKE, $44.65) RBC Capital Mkts downgrades from Outperform to Sector Perform
- Adidas (ADS-DE, EUR167.35) RBC Capital upgrades from Sector Perform to Outperform
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Walmart will run a week-long Walmart Deals summer savings event starting this coming Monday, 6/22/26, online at 12:01 am and in-store at 6:00am, with early access to some deals for paid Walmart+ members, will overlap Amazon Prime Day(s), which runs 6/23/26-6/26/26, and Target Circle Deal Days, which starts 6/22/26 for Target Circle 360 members, 6/23/26 for free Target Circle.
Walmart is expanding its drone delivery program with Wing to seven more markets, including New Orleans, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, Salt Lake city and Memphis, and expects drone delivery -- orders are fulfilled in as fast as 30 minutes -- in those areas to begin by next year and take total markets served across the US to nearly 20.
Amazon has expanded its less-than-truckload freight service from the current inbound-to-Amazon to any destination, including 3P warehouses, DCs and retail partners, all part of a suite of offerings from Amazon Supply Chain Services, press release here.
Designer Brands (DSW) said during its first quarter call yesterday casual and athletic footwear categories were soft as customers "shifted back towards fashion and occasion-based products" after several years of stronger demand for casual and athletic footwear and also guided sales for its retail business in 2Q26 to be flat to slightly positive vs. last year's second quarter.
Academy Sports + Outdoors said its footwear sales grew 3% y/y in the first quarter and called out strength in cleats (baseball) and its summer seasonal businesses, led by Crocs and Birkenstock, and also noted momentum in performance running, driven in part by the Nike Vomero, and said "it feels like (Nike is) just starting to get (its) innovation pipeline really moving."
StockX is launching real-time live shopping for new and pre-owned items for iOS users this summer, called StockX Live and will include live auctions, giveaways and direct selling and initially focus on sneakers, apparel, collectibles, trading cards and vintage fashion.
Japan's Asics plans to spin off Onitsuka Tiger, its high-end sneaker+ brand best known for retro, minimalist designs and high quality, and expects to transfer ownership to a wholly owned subsidiary called OT Group through a company split that will be effective at the start of next year. Asics said the split will allow for faster decision making for the brand, which grew sales by 40%+ in calendar 2025, to $850M+, on strong demand in Europe and Japan.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Grocery Outlet CFO since 2025 and former Shamrock Foods and Core-Mark CFO Chris Miller is retiring and has been succeeded by Grocery Outlet financial exec since 2025 Ian Ferry, who has been promoted to CFO, while former 25+ year Grocery Outlet exec Paul Miller has returned as Chief Purchasing and Merchandising Officer and succeeded Matt Delly, who is leaving the company.
- Grocery Outlet also reaffirmed 2Q26 (June) and FY26 guidance given in mid-May.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 8:30 am, the Consumer Price Index for May was right in line with expectations at +4.2% y/y all-in after +3.8% in April and the highest headline CPI reading in three years, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 2.9% y/y in May after +2.8% in April.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Inflation is taking its direction from fuel prices, which have spiked with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, so where we go from here is highly contingent on whether or not the US and Iran can reach an agreement to end the war and reopen the strait.
Out yesterday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.15 on average across the US for the week ended 6/8/26, down $0.16 from the prior week but up $1.04 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.21, down $0.14 on the week but up $1.74 from last year.
- Fuel prices are being driven up by supply constraints related to the war in Iran.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas at $4+ is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Also out yesterday, Existing Home Sales for May were better than expected and increased 3% m/m to an annualized 4.17M vs. the Street's 4.07M estimate, while sales also grew 3% on a year-over-year basis compared to May 2025, and the median selling price was $429,300, up 1% y/y.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The housing market is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates opt to remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Source: BLS and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Adidas (ADS-DE, EUR167.35) RBC Capital Markets upgrades from Sector Perform to Outperform and raises its target from EUR170 to EUR210, says the company is generating strong, DTC-led revenue growth and has good visibility around forward orders while executing consistently, also says momentum is broad-based across regions, categories and sports verticals, sees three-year EPS growth of 25% vs. an average +11% for its coverage, and thinks the stock is undervalued.
Nike (NKE, $44.65) RBC Capital Markets downgrades from Outperform to Sector Perform and lowers its target from $70 to $50 in front of 4Q26 (May) results at the end of the month, says the turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill has been "slower and narrower" than expected and does not see a sustained inflection in sales trends this year despite the FIFA World Cup and cleaner inventories, also thinks the stock is overvalued relative to the broader peer group.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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