Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Oxford's Lilly Pulitzer weighs on results/guidance, interest in Prime Day is high, despite macro pressures, NRF forecasting a record Father's Day on higher per-person spending, Target raising dividend, VS&Co wins proxy fight vs. #2 shareholder...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Thursday, June 11, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Results from Oxford, Others, Prime Day Interest Is High Despite Concerns, Record Father's Day...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/8)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- Capri Holdings doing investor meetings this week, hosted by Maxim
- Duluth Trading reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $93.7M/($0.39)
- Duluth Trading Investor Day at 11:00 am, will be webcast
Tuesday (6/9)
- Macy's at the Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference
- e.l.f. Beauty at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference
- Lands' End reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, no Street consensus estimates
- Designer Brands reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.03
- Existing Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at 4.07M SAAR vs. prior 4.02M
- Academy Sports reports 1Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at comps up 2.5%, EPS of $0.91
- FIGS at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at noon
- Walmart at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at 3:00 pm
- Casey's reports 4Q26 after the close, Street at comps up 4.9%, EPS of $3.31
- BARK reports 4Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $96.3M/($0.35)
- Tapestry doing a dinner with investors in NYC, hosted by BTIG
Wednesday (6/10)
- Steve Madden doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by Needham
- Chewy reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $3.35B/$0.24
- J.Jill reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps down 7.9%, EPS of $0.42
- Consumer Price Index for May at 8:30 am, Street at +4.2% y/y vs. prior +3.8%
- Casey's 4Q26 call at 8:30 am
- Walmart at the Evercore ISI Consumer & Retail Conference at 9:50 am
- Fossil doing a call with investors at noon, hosted by Northland
- Oxford Industries reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $391.8M/$1.29
- Stitch Fix reports 3Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $333.5M/($0.06)
Thursday (6/11)
- Walmart doing meetings at the D.A. Davidson Technology & Consumer Conference
- Producer Price Index for May at 8:30 am, Street at +6.4% y/y vs. prior +6.0%
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/6/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 216K vs. prior 225K
- Lovesac reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $136.3M/($1.05)
- Vera Bradley reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, no Street consensus estimates
- RH reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at sales/EPS of $792.6M/($2.12)
Friday (6/12)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- Lovesac at the virtual Oppenheimer Consumer Growth & E-Comm Conference at 9:45 am
- U. Mich. Sentiment for June (preliminary) at 10:00 am, Street at 47.8 vs. prior 44.8
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.9% as of ~11:00 am vs. a 0.3% gain in the S&P 500. Retail stocks continue to outperform and are now up nearly 1% YTD after coming into the week down 3%.
- Stronger retail stocks include SFIX, up 17% on results, VRA (up 9%, turnaround progress), PRPL (up 6%), KTB (up 6%, JPM adds to its Focus List) and TLYS (up 5%), while shares of Dollarama, which trade in Toronto, ticker DOL-T, are up 8% on strong results.
- Weaker retail stocks include DBGI, down 30% despite more CEO buying, OXM (down 16%, reported), LOVE (down 9%, reported), SNBR (down 7%) and DBI (down 6%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Total sales included $224.6M from Tommy Bahama, up 4% y/y, $90.4M from Lilly Pulitzer, down 9%, $37.9M from Johnny Was, down 13%, and $38.6M from Emerging Brands, up 13%, also e-comm sales of $111M, down 2%, and wholesale sales of $88M, down 5%.
- Outlet sales were $19M and essentially flat with last year's first quarter.
- Adjusted EPS were $1.39 vs. $1.82 last year and the Street's $1.29 estimate and incorporated 90 bps of gross margin pressure on tariff impacts, which were partially offset by sourcing and pricing strategies, lower freight costs to customers, and more higher-margin DTC sales.
- Incremental tariff costs were $11M in the quarter and reduced EPS by $0.55 y/y.
- Inventories look fine and were down slightly y/y on a FIFO basis, including tariff impacts.
- FY26 guidance includes sales of $1.48B-$1.51B vs. $1.48B in FY25 and a prior $1.48B-$1.53B and adjusted EPS of $2.30-$2.70 vs. $2.11 in FY25 and a prior $2.10-$2.70 and assumes "disciplined expense and inventory management" will support earnings.
- Guidance also assumes more favorable tariff rates than previously expected.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Not a terrible report with solid growth at Oxford's most important brand, Tommy Bahama, which grew sales by 4% after a 4% decline in the fourth quarter, and earnings would have grown y/y absent the incremental tariff costs as key profit drivers remain intact.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Chewy (CHWY, $19.98) MoffettNathanson downgrades from Buy to Neutral
- J.Jill (JILL, $13.58) William Blair downgrades from Outperform to Market Perform
- Kontoor Brands (KTB, $75.94) JPM adds the stock to its Analyst Focus List
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
55% of US consumers plan to shop Amazon's four-day Prime Day event in late-June acc'd to recent survey work by Omnisend, which says 66% of those planning to shop the event expect to spend the same amount (46%) or more (20%) than they did for last year's four-day event in July, despite anxiety about inflation and other price pressures impacting their finances.
- The 55% planning to shop Prime Day this year is up from 45% who shopped last year, while only 12% of those planning to shop said they plan to spend less this year.
- Nearly 60% of those planning to shop Prime Day this year plan to spend up to $200.
- Merchandise categories with the highest interest this year include clothing and accessories at 41%, then electronics at 38% and beauty products at 26%.
- 22% of those planning to shop Prime Day plan to buy groceries and household essentials.
US spending on Father's Day could grow by a very strong 16% y/y, to $27.9B acc'd to annual survey work by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics that has 77% of consumers planning to celebrate Father's Day, similar to recent years, and spend $226.58 per person, up 14% from last year's $199.38 in planned spending and a record high despite macro uncertainty.
- The top five planned gifts by spending are a special outing at $4.8B, clothing at $4.1B, gift cards at $3.3B, electronics at $3.1B and personal care items at $2.3B.
- Online is again the top planned shopping destination at 38%, then department stores at 37%, and discount stores at 26%, up from 23% in last year's survey.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Target (TGT, $127.98) is raising its quarterly dividend by 2%, from $1.14/sh to $1.16/sh, payable 9/1/26 to shareholders of record as of 8/12/26 and implies an annualized yield of 3.6%.
Victoria's Secret (VSXY, $74.24) shareholders have "decisively" re-elected all nine company director nominees, including Independent Chair Donna James, who has been fiercely opposed by #2 shareholder BBRC, which has been waging a proxy fight to remover her.
Stitch Fix (SFIX, $3.60) had a better-than-expected 3Q26 (April), though revenue growth slowed from +9% in the fourth quarter to +5%, to $340.3M, and reflected a 2% y/y decline in active clients, to 2.3M, and a 7% y/y increase in revs/client, to $578, while adjusted EBITDA was $13.2M vs. $11.0M last year, and management raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance.
- While down y/y, active clients did grow from the fourth quarter, by ~1%.
- Full-year revs are now expected at ~$1.35B, up 6%+ y/y, and adjusted EBITDA is expected at $49M-$52M, with a margin of 3.7%-3.9% vs. a prior 3.2%-3.7% range.
- On the Call, CEO Matt Baer said Stitch Fix is finding success by targeting clients using GLP-1 meds and explaining how its personalized styling accommodates changing body sizes.
Lovesac (LOVE, $16.48) had a tough but better-than-expected 1Q27 (April) as sales were flat at $138.2M amid "continued industry headwinds" but also said it saw "modest market share gains," while adjusted EBITDA of ($10.5M) vs. ($8.4M) last year was pressured by factors including higher inbound transportation and tariff costs, and mgmt trimmed FY27 sales and boosted EBITDA.
- Full-year FY27 sales are now expected at $700M-$740M vs. $697.1M last year.
- Lovesac opened six showrooms and closed three in the quarter, has 280+ now.
Vera Bradley (VRA, $3.18) had a good 1Q27 (April) against easy comparisons and against no Street consensus estimates and grew consolidated revs by 8% to $55.7M, the first quarter of y/y growth since fiscal 4Q22, while non-GAAP EPS were ($0.09) vs. ($0.36) last year and incorporated 430 bps of gross margin improvement on a favorable sales mix + lower freight and duty costs.
- Comparable sales increased 13.4% vs. a 25.0% decline last year.
- Strategic collaborations with Bath & Body Works and Target are doing well.
- Management reaffirmed full-year sales guidance of $255M-$270M vs. $269.7M in FY26 and said it continues to focus on stabilizing the business this year.
- Operating loss is now expected to improve by 50% or more vs. a prior 40% or more.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL, $16.65) shareholders have approved a previously announced corporate name change, from Shoe Carnival to Shoe Station Group, effective tomorrow, and the company's stock will trade under the new ticker SHOE on the Nasdaq beginning tomorrow morning.
Dollarama, which has 1,700+ stores across Canada, had a strong 1Q27 (April) and comped up 5.6% in Canada on top of a 4.9% increase last year and reflecting a 3.5% increase in traffic and a 2.0% increase in ticket, while total company sales grew 21% y/y to C$1.85B on the comp, new organic store growth, and last year's acquisition of 400+ The Reject Shop stores in Australia.
- Mgmt reaffirmed full-year guidance, includes comps of +3%-4%, 60-70 net new stores.
The UK's Frasers Group offered to buy all of Germany's Hugo Boss for EUR38 per share in cash, or nearly EUR2B in total, and said it has secured an acquisition facility agreement to finance the transaction. Frasers has been building its stake in HB and owns 26%.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Ollie's Bargain Outlet, which has 670+ stores and is planning to open 75 new stores this year, has entered its 36th state, New Mexico, with the grand opening of a new store in Clovis, NM yesterday, location is Rockridge Plaza in a former Big Lots location.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 8:30 am, the Producer Price Index for May was slightly "hotter" than expected at +6.5% y/y vs. the Street's +6.4% estimate and up significantly from a downwardly revised +5.7% in April, while core PPI excluding food and energy was unchanged from April at +4.9% y/y.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Inflation is taking its direction from fuel prices, which have spiked with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, so where we go from here is highly contingent on whether or not the US and Iran can reach an agreement to end the war and reopen the strait.
Also out at 8:30 am, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/6/26 were higher than expected at 229K vs. the Street's 216K estimate and up 4K from 225K the prior week but still on the low side historically, while Continuing Claims, which are reported with a week's lag, rose slightly, to 1.80M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out yesterday, the Consumer Price Index for May was right in line with expectations at +4.2% y/y all-in after +3.8% in April and the highest headline CPI reading in three years, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 2.9% y/y in May after +2.8% in April.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Inflation is taking its direction from fuel prices, which have spiked with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, so where we go from here is highly contingent on whether or not the US and Iran can reach an agreement to end the war and reopen the strait.
Source: BLS and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Chewy (CHWY, $19.98) MoffettNathanson downgrades from Buy to Neutral and lowers its target from $50 to $22 after yesterday's 1Q26 results, says it can no longer argue a bullish case for the stock with macro pressures and the reduced sales guidance for FY26, also says organic growth is "unimpressive" and notes customer additions are trending below its prior forecast.
J.Jill (JILL, $13.58) William Blair downgrades from Outperform to Market Perform with no price target after yesterday's 1Q26 results, says comps missed Street expectations on continued weakness in the direct channel and views reaffirmed full-year guidance as aggressive since it assumes an inflection in trends in the back half of the year on new and refreshed product.
Kontoor Brands (KTB, $75.94) JPM maintains an Overweight rating and $90 target and adds KTB to its Analyst Focus List following a recent initiation of coverage and a meeting with mgmt, believes the go-forward portfolio of Wrangler and Helly Hansen is positioned for accelerated growth.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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