Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Prime Day underway amid upbeat expectations, many analyst actions, mostly downgrades, gas prices easing but remain problematic, Fossil's stock to join the Russell 2K, Bath & Body Works launching an assortment at Ulta, Best Buy CFO leaving...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Prime Day Underway, Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades, Gas Prices Easing, BBY CFO Leaving...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/22)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (6/23)
- Amazon Prime Day, runs through Friday
- Kroger meeting with investors in Cincinnati, hosted by Oppenheimer
- Ollie's doing investor meetings in KC/Denver today/tomorrow, hosted by KeyBanc
- G-III Apparel doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Oxford Industries doing investor meetings in Boston, hosted by KeyBanc
Wednesday (6/24)
- Citi Trends doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by D.A. Davidson
- Casey's 2026 Investor Day in NYC, starts at 9:30 am and will be webcast
- New Home Sales for May at 10:00 am, Street at 655K SAAR vs. prior 622K
- Havertys Furniture doing a virtual investor meeting, hosted by Telsey Advisory
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Morgan Stanley Consumer & Retail Summit
Thursday (6/25)
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/20/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 225K vs. prior 226K
- Personal Income/Spend for May at 8:30 am, Street at +0.5%/+0.5% m/m vs. prior flat/+0.5%
- Retail Marketing Society monthly webinar at noon, focus is wellness and its impact on retail, DoRCR will provide a brief Retail & Consumer update to start the event, info here
- Walmart doing investor meetings at the Wolfe Research Virtual Consumer Access Day
Friday (6/26)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- U. Mich. Sentiment for June (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 49.2 vs. prior 48.9
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.6% as of ~10:50 am vs. a 1.1% decline in the S&P 500, which is getting hit again on concerns about tech/AI stock valuations. Retail stocks are outperforming as Amazon Prime Day gets underway with upbeat commentary from analysts, others...
- Stronger retail stocks include BBBY, up 10% on a positive analyst report, DXLG (up 6%), NGVC (up 5%), BBWI (up 5%, new partnership with Ulta), LOVE (up 4%, insider buying).
- Weaker retail stocks include LANV, which is down 7%, also WWW (down 5%), TLYS (down 5%), PVH (down 4%) and BBY (down 4%, CFO stepping down and leaving the company).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- JPM thinks the earlier timing will generate incremental demand while helping Amazon more effectively manage through the FIFA World Cup and the US's 250th anniversary.
- Adobe said yesterday Prime Day and related shopping events held by Walmart, Target and others could drive a record $26.3B in online spending over four days, up 9% y/y.
- Deals are expected to be greatest in apparel, at 23% off the listed retail price vs. 24% off last year, then electronics at 23% vs. 23%, toys at 19% vs. 19%, TVs at 18%, also unchanged vs. last year, appliances at 18% vs. 17%, furniture at 15% vs. 18%, computers at 14% vs. 13%.
- AI-driven traffic to US retail sites is expected to increase 103% vs. June 2025, and BNPL is expected to drive $2.04B of sales, up 6% y/y and nearly 8% of e-comm spending.
- Mobile shopping is expected to drive $14.2B of spending, or 54%, an all-time high.
- For comparison, Cyber Monday 2025 drove $14.3B of online sales, Black Friday $11.8B.
- Numerator, which tracks Prime Day stats, will give its first update here at 4:00 pm today.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is all consistent with recent spending indicators, including Retail Sales for May, out last week and showed 7% y/y growth, and the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales up 7% y/y in May, and it also highlights consumer interest in shopping back-to-school and other events/holidays earlier and earlier to take advantage of deals/promos.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Home Depot (HD, $326.62) Wolfe downgrades from Outperform to Peer Perform
- Ross Stores (ROST, $236.97) Wells Fargo downgrades from Overweight to Equal Weight
- Nike (NKE, $43.19) Evercore ISI downgrades from Outperform to In Line
- Target (TGT, $129.73) Wolfe Research upgrades from Peer Perform to Outperform
- Five Below (FIVE, $193.45) Wolfe Research downgrades from Outperform to Peer Perform
- Chewy (CHWY, $17.51) TD Securities designates the stock a best smid-cap idea
- Somnigroup (SGI, $72.96) Zelman initiates coverage with an Outperform rating
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Fossil's (FOSL, $4.17) stock will join the small-cap Russell 2000 Index after the close on Friday as part of a monthly reconstitution of the index, which measures small-cap performance.
Bath & Body Works (BBWI, $19.62) is launching a selection of its home fragrance and body care products at 600+ Ulta stores across the US and on Ulta.com, starting 7/12/26, and says the new partnership is part of a repositioning of the Bath & Body Works brand from specialty retail "into a category-leading global band" and is also in line with its Consumer First Formula strategy.
L Catterton has taken a significant minority stake in haircare brand Roz for an undisclosed amount in a recent investment round that also included Silas Capital and G9 Ventures.
Walmart is acquiring connected TV advertising platform Vibe.cofor an undisclosed amount, expects the deal to close by the end of its current fiscal year, and says it does not expect any impact to its prior sales and operating income guidance for FY27 (January 2027). Walmart also says the transaction "advances (its) strategy to build more accessible, full-funnel advertising solutions through Walmart Connect, its ecommerce media business," release here.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Target, which has ~2K stores, will open 11 new stores near the end of July, in Mesa, AZ, Perris, CA, Firestone, CO, Lake Nona, FL, Frankfort, KY, Springfield, MA, Seneca, SC, Brookings, SD, Forney and Little Elm, TX, and Logan, UT, all will be 125K+ sf and are part of a plan to open 30+ new stores this year and 300+ new stores between 2025-2035.
- Target also announced plans to open new stores in Beaumont, Victorville and Los Angeles, CA, Lexington, SC and Fort Worth, Katy and Liberty Hill, TX but did not provide dates.
True Religion, which has 57 US stores, announced plans to open four new stores through the balance of 2026, in Indianapolis, Brandon, FL, Sacramento and Cherry Hill, NJ, said its stores are "highly profitable," with four-wall EBITDA margins averaging 45%, and said it is accelerating its retail expansion as part of a plan to become a $1B lifestyle brand with 150 US stores.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
Best Buy CFO since mid-2019 and 20-year Best Buy financial exec Matt Bilunas is stepping down as CFO and leaving the company at the end of July, and current CEO and former Best Buy CFO Corie Barry will provide financial oversight until a new CFO joins the company if necessary.
- Best Buy has engaged an external search firm to help identify its next CFO.
- The company expects to appoint a new CFO with prior CFO experience.
True Religion has hired Skechers VP of Retail since December 2025, Skechers sales and operations exec since 2017, and former Target and Ross Stores exec Kristen Jones as VP of Retail.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $3.91 on average across the US for the week ended 6/22/26, down $0.14 from the prior week but up $0.70 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $4.83, down $0.23 on the week but up $1.06 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The easing trend is definitely welcome, but gas in the $4 area is still problematic for consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at close to $5 per gallon is a headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Out last Thursday, Jobless Claims for the week ended 6/13/26 were close to expectations at 226K and decreased 4K from a slightly revised 230K the prior week, while Continuing Claims, which indicate how long it's taking those without jobs to find jobs, rose by 24K, to 1.18M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out Wednesday, Pending Home Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 3.8% m/m vs. the Street's +1.0% and after a downwardly-revised +0.3% in April, while Pending Home Sales increased nearly 5% on a year-over-year basis compared to May 2025.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Great to see, but the housing mkt is still in a tough place overall and being held back by high mortgage rates, high prices, and limited supply as those with lower rates remain in place to keep their rates, and this all continues to be an overhang for home-oriented retail.
Also out Wednesday, headline Retail Sales for May were stronger than expected and increased 0.9% m/m vs. the Street's +0.6% estimate after a slightly revised +0.4% increase in April, while Retail Sales excluding autos and fuel increased 0.5% in May after a 0.5% m/m increase in April.
- Eleven of 13 merchandise categories grew sales on a month-to-month basis.
- On a year-over-year basis, headline Retail Sales grew 6.9%, best since early-2023.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: This is consistent with the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which put core retail sales ex fuel/autos/restaurants up 7.0% y/y in May, driven by factors including bigger tax refunds than last year, accelerating jobs growth and the strong stock market.
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Amazon (AMZN, $232.79) JPM maintains an Overweight rating and $330 target and says AMZN remains a best idea after an analysis of Amazon Prime's value to members, which it says is more than 10x than annual cost of membership in the US, or an estimated value of $1,440 per year vs. the $139 annual membership fee, also thinks Amazon may not raise the price of a Prime membership again until next year given war in the Middle East and higher gas/fuel prices.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, $5.83) Wedbush assumes coverage with an Outperform rating and raises its target from $8 to $10 as part of what appears to be a transition of coverage, says the market is pricing BBBY as a declining e-comm business and overlooking the company's broader "Everything Home" strategy it believes could produce $3B in annual revs and improving margins.
Chewy (CHWY, $17.51) TD Securities maintains a Buy rating and $34 target and designates CHWY as a best smid-cap idea for 2026, says the company has "a number of promising growth and margin levers" and is well positioned in the pet category, also sees continued share gains vs. offline competitors including local pet stores, traditional retailers and grocers as online penetration continues to increase and believes risk/reward in the stock is attractive.
Five Below (FIVE, $193.45) Wolfe Research downgrades from Outperform to Peer Perform with no price target, thinks the setup for the stock going forward is difficult with sales likely to slow, in part b/c of a potentially waning squishy dumpling toy trend.
Home Depot (HD, $326.62) Wolfe downgrades from Outperform to Peer Perform with no price target, cites the tough housing market and high interest rates and says this dynamic, along with HD's shift toward the Large Pro segment, raise questions about the company's earnings power, thinks it won't be until mid-2027 at the earliest before any legislative action to help improve housing affordability has a meaningful impact on housing turnover.
Nike (NKE, $43.19) Evercore ISI downgrades from Outperform to In Line and lowers its target from $57 to $46 in front of 4Q26 (May) results next Tuesday afternoon, says parts of the core business are still weakening and reflect more wholesale order cuts/cancelations than assumed in prior guidance, while "needle-moving innovation" is still lacking, also believes Nike has had some delivery issues with its World Cup product and sees potential for another guidance reset lower.
Ross Stores (ROST, $236.97) Wells Fargo downgrades from Overweight to Equal Weight and maintains its $245 target, says execution has been "essentially flawless" but thinks the stock, which is up 30%+ YTD, is close to fair value, also sees some risk from Ross's higher exposure to lower-income consumers and notes difficult comparisons and building inventories.
Somnigroup (SGI, $72.96) Zelman initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $99 target.
Target (TGT, $129.73) Wolfe Research upgrades from Peer Perform to Outperform, establishes a $162 price target, and calls TGT a top-pick for the back half of 2026, says execution is improving under new CEO Michael Fiddelke and sees substantially more upside potential in the stock than downside risk, also says Target is becoming a destination shopping trip once again.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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