Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Costco's comps accelerate from already-strong levels, Five Below reports a blowout quarter, best we've seen, Sleep Number preps a Ch 11, has been on our bankruptcy watchlist, PVH cites EMEA as factor behind soft 1Q, but there's more to it...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Thursday, June 4, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Costco's Comps Accelerate, FIVE's Blowout 1Q, PVH's Deceleration, Sleep Number Prepping Ch 11...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (6/1)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
- The RealReal doing an investor meeting at 10:30 am, hosted by BTIG
Tuesday (6/2)
- TD Cowen Annual Future of the Consumer Conference thru Weds, list of retailers here
- Baird Global Consumer, Tech and Services Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- William Blair Annual Growth Stock Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- Deutsche Bank Global Conference thru Thurs, list of retailers here
- Steve Madden doing investor meetings in NYC today with TAG, tomorrow with BTIG
- Victoria's Secret reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 11.4%, EPS of $0.32
- Signet Jewelers reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 1.8%, EPS of $1.38
- Yesway reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $678.3M/$0.48
- ODDITY reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $187.9M/($0.03)
- Dollar General reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 2.0%, EPS of $1.89
- Citi Trends reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, prelim comps up 13.9%, EPS expected at $0.32
- GameStop reports 1Q26 results after the close, no call, no Street estimates
- Ulta Beauty reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 4.7%, EPS of $6.89
- Sportsman's WH reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 1.1%, EPS of ($0.54)
Wednesday (6/3)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary monthly M&A + Capital Markets Analysis
- Macy's reports 1Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.4%, EPS of $0.03
- ADP Employment for May at 8:15 am, Street at +120K vs. prior +109K
- Ollie's reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 1.6%, EPS of $0.87
- Rent the Runway reports 1Q26, call 8:30 am, no Street estimates
- Destination XL reports 1Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps down 2.0%, EPS of ($0.07)
- PVH reports 1Q26 after the close, Street at sales/EPS of $2.00B/$1.82
- Costco reports May sales at 4:15 pm
- Petco reports 1Q26, call 4:15 pm, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.02
- Five Below reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 19.6%, EPS of $1.77
- Tilly's reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 19.0%, EPS of ($0.33)
Thursday (6/4)
- Buckle reports May sales before the open
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/30/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 211K vs. prior 215K
- PVH 1Q26 conference call at 9:00 am
- Walmart Annual Shareholders' Meeting, starts at 9:30 am
- Caleres reports 1Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at flat comps, EPS of $0.34
- Lululemon reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps down 0.2%, EPS of $1.68
- Torrid reports 1Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps down 3.8%, EPS of ($0.01)
- Zumiez reports 1Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 2.0%, EPS of ($0.81)
Friday (6/5)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- Nonfarm Payrolls for May at 8:30 am, Street at +105K vs. prior +115K, Unemployment expected at 4.3% vs. prior 4.3%, Avg Hourly Earnings at +0.4% m/m vs. prior +0.2%
- G-III Apparel reports 1Q27, call 8:30 am, Street at sales/EPS of $529.1M/($0.30)
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 0.7% as of ~10:40 am vs. a slight decline in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are outperforming as Costco reports acceleration in its monthly comps and as Five Below says its comps grew 20%+ in the first quarter, though FIVE shares are down on profit-taking and the view that this may be as good as it gets for the numbers this year.
- Stronger retail stocks: TLYS, also reported 20%+ comps and is up 17%, CTRN (up 7%), M (up 6%, WSJ's Heard on the Street column is out positive), W (up 5%) and SFIX (up 4%).
- Weaker retail stocks include SNBR, which is down 69% on reports of a pending Ch 11, also PVH (down 25%, soft results, analyst downgrade), WOOF (down 16%, reported), FIVE (down 14% but still up 50%+ over the past year) and DBGI (down 13%).
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Reported comparable sales increased 12.5% after an 11.6% increase in April, while total sales for the four-week month of May grew 15% y/y to $24.01B.
- Comps ex gas and forex grew 8.0% after +7.8% in April and included +8.7% in the U.S., +5.3% in Canada, and +6.9% at Other International, and digitally-enabled comps grew 20.9%.
- Traffic increased 3.9% worldwide and 3.7% in the US, avg transaction grew 4.0% ex gas and forex, and excluding all gas sales entirely and the impact of forex, comps increased 7.9%.
- Higher-margin non-food categories grew by a high-single-digit rate.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Costco continues to be one of the best stories in retail with its ~90% member renewal rate, extreme value proposition, and below-mkt gasoline prices, and strong momentum should continue as all the major elements of the company's success remain intact.
- Comps increased 22.7% vs. the Street's +19.6% and also benefited from strong traffic, some driven by social media buzz and coordinated merchandising and marketing, while total sales grew 33% to $1.29B on comps, 8% unit growth, and strong new store performance.
- Adjusted EPS were $2.22 vs. $0.86 last year and the Street's $1.77 estimate and incorporated strong gross margin expansion, up 380 bps y/y to 37.2%.
- Ending inventories were up 16% y/y, well below total sales growth.
- FY26 guidance now includes comps up 6%-8% vs. a prior up 3%-5%, total sales of $5.40B-$5.48B vs. $4.76B in FY25, and adjusted EPS of $8.65-$9.05 vs. $6.67 in FY25 and a prior $7.74-$8.25 and assuming +7%-9% comps in the second quarter.
- Five Below slowed store growth in FY25 to focus more on driving fleet performance and opened 150 net new stores, or 8.5% y/y growth, to end the year with 1,921 stores.
- On the Call, mgmt cited several factors as key sales drivers in the quarter, including product newness + value, social and digital marketing, and a better shopping experience with higher in-stocks and "streamlined pricing," and also noted some benefit from higher tax refunds.
- 15 of 18 depts comped positively, the squishy toy trend continued to drive sales, and comps were driven largely by higher traffic, up 19% vs. a 4% increase in average ticket.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: These are about the best results we've seen this earnings season, even though FIVE was cycling tougher comparisons than most and has high exposure to Asian sourcing and tariffs; slower store growth, greater focus on merchandising and value under new(er) CEO Winnie Park, improved execution and a better in-store experience are all factors.
- Total revs were $2.03B, down 2% y/y on a constant-currency basis and incorporating a 2% decrease in the Americas, a 5% decrease in EMEA, and a 6% increase in APAC, with four ppts from the timing of Lunar New Year, also DTC revs up 3% and wholesale revs down 6%.
- Within DTC, store revs increased 2%, and digital revs grew 6%, both constant currency.
- Non-GAAP EPS were $2.01 vs. $2.30 last year and the Street's $1.82 and incorporated a $0.21 benefit from favorable forex and a flat gross margin as pressures from tariffs, promos and other factors were offset by tariff mitigation, a favorable mix and forex benefits.
- Inventories look fine/good and were down 5% y/y at the end of the quarter.
- FY26 guidance now includes constant-currency revs down slightly from FY25's $8.95B vs. a prior flat to up slightly, a flat operating margin of 8.8%, unchanged from before, and non-GAAP EPS of $11.80-$12.10 vs. $11.40 in FY25 and also unchanged from before.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: While weakness in EMEA makes sense with ongoing war in the Middle East, there's a broader deceleration here as overall trends have gone from flattish to slightly negative even as many retailers/brands, including Macy's and off-price, have seen meaningful acceleration; this raises questions about both CK and Tommy Hilfiger vis-a-vis product, marketing, etc.
- Comps increased 0.7% vs. the Street's flat estimate and were (0.6%) on a two-year basis after (1.1%) in the fourth quarter, while total sales were essentially flat at $1.50B and reflected improvement in consumables and outperformance in pet services.
- Adjusted EBITDA grew 9% y/y to $97.3M vs. the Street's $91.7M and incorporated ~20 bps of gross margin improvement and 55 bps of op margin improvement, to 1.6%.
- Inventory looks good and was down 2% y/y at the end of the quarter.
- Petco closed seven net stores last year, finished FY25 with 1,382 total stores, and is still planning to close a net 15-20 stores in the current fiscal year.
- FY26 guidance still includes sales flat to up 1.5% y/y from FY25's $5.96B. and adjusted EBITDA of $415M-$430M vs. $408.2M in FY25 and the Street's $421.1M estimate.
- Guidance assumes some benefit from a partial IEEPA tariff refund rec'd last month, assumes no add' refunds, and assumes fuel prices remain elevated, similar to the first quarter.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The pet industry has come down from its pandemic highs, which were driven by a surge in pet adoption, and it has become more competitive and more digital with pureplay online players like Chewy -- growing sales by ~8% -- taking share with its sticky Autoship biz.
- The (2.3%) Famous Footwear comp compares to the Street's flat estimate, while Brand Portfolio sales grew 20%+ including the acquired Stuart Weitzman business and 6% on an organic basis, and total sales were $666.6M, up 9%/1% including/excluding SW.
- The weaker FF performance reflected "a softer consumer and macroeconomic backdrop," while the solid organic growth at BP was driven by "broad-based momentum."
- Overall, Caleres grew footwear share on gains in women's fashion and at shoe chains.
- Adjusted EPS were $0.38 vs. $0.23 last year and the Street's $0.34 estimate and incorporated a 140 bps improvement in adjusted gross margin, with gains at BP on mix, successful tariff mitigation and strong general execution more than offsetting declines at FF.
- Inventories look fine/good and were down y/y when excluding Stuart Weitzman.
- FY26 guidance still includes a low- to mid-single-digit increase in sales from FY25's $2.76B while adjusted EPS are now expected at $1.40-$1.65 vs. $0.61 in FY25.
- Famous Footwear comps and total sales are expected to decrease by a MSD%, while Brand Portfolio sales are expected to grow LDD% with SW and by a MSD% organically.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: CAL shares were up nearly 60% from the fourth quarter results in mid-March going into this morning's update, but the stock has been up and down within a $9-$15 ish range over the past year or so on the mixed performance across business segments.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Dollar Tree (DLTR, $112.50) Gordon Haskett upgrades from Reduce to Hold
- Ollie's (OLLI, $79.74) Gordon Haskett downgrades from Buy to Accumulate
- PVH Corporation (PVH, $98.00) Evercore ISI downgrades from Outperform to In Line
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
The Buckle (BKE, $43.52) had another solid month in May as comps increased 2.2% on top of +7.2% last year, while total sales grew 5% to $92.5M for the four-week retail month.
Tilly's (TLYS, $4.44) had a better-than-expected 1Q26 (April) and comped up 22.9% on top of (7.0%) last year, with stores up 20.8% and e-comm up 30%+, while EPS were ($0.26) vs. ($0.74) last year and incorporated 910 bps of gross margin improvement on higher product margins (up 400 bps) on more full-price selling against deep discounts of aged inventory LY and 500+ bps of cost leverage.
- Guidance calls for significant comp moderation in the second quarter, up 6%-10%.
Walmart (WMT, $116.89) has expanded its Walmart+ paid membership program to Canada after growing it rapidly in the US, price is C$8.97 per month or C$89 annually, includes unlimited same-day delivery from the store, free shipping with no minimum order size, other benefits.
Amazon (AMZN, $250.02) has launched its Prime paid subscription program in South Africa -- country #27 -- cost is R59 ($3.60) per month of R399 ($24) annually, includes "free" delivery of eligible items, unlimited Same-Day Delivery on orders place before midday in Cape Town, Johannesburg and Pretoria, no minimum order amount, unlimited Next-Day Delivery with no minimum order amount, unlimited access to Prime Video, exclusive savings and events, etc.
Sleep Number (SNBR, $1.06) is prepping a Ch 11 acc'd to the WSJ, which notes the company's $600M+ of debt and weak financials and says the reorg will be aimed at keeping the biz intact and could involve a sale. Sleep Number filed docs yesterday saying it was giving one-time cash retention bonuses to key execs, including its CEO and CFO, a move that oftentimes signals a Ch 11 filing. We've had SNBR on our bankruptcy watch list, last update here.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
We're not seeing anything too significant/noteworthy this morning...
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 8:30 am, Jobless Claims for the week ended 5/30/26 were higher than expected at 225K vs. the Street's 211K and up from a revised 212K the prior week but are still on the low side historically, while Continuing Claims, reported with a week's lag, decreased slightly, to 1.78M.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out yesterday, ADP Employment for May was slightly better than expected at +122K vs. the Street's +120K estimate and accelerated modestly from a revised +105K in April on more broad-based hiring than in the last few years, while pay for "job stayers" was unchanged at +4.4% y/y.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The labor market slowed significantly last year but appears to be in recovery mode despite AI, geopolitical instability/uncertainty, the spike in fuel prices, etc., and this is good for consumer spending, though higher fuel prices do erode discretionary spending power.
Out Tuesday and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.31 on average across the US for the week ended 6/1/26, down a $0.17 from the prior week but up $1.18 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.35, down $0.17 on the week but up $1.90 from last year.
- Fuel prices are being driven up by supply constraints related to the war in Iran.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices are running well above the psychologically (and otherwise) important $4 per-gallon level, and this will likely have a meaningful impact on consumer discretionary spending, especially by those in lower-income brackets, while diesel at $5+ per gallon is a significant headwind to retailers' transportation costs and margins.
Source: Labor Dept and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Dollar Tree (DLTR, $112.50) Gordon Haskett upgrades from Reduce to Hold and raises its target from $110 to $115 after recent first quarter results, says it still has some concerns about the longer-term ramifications of Dollar Tree's multi-price-point strategy but thinks the stock will be in a bit of a holding pattern in the coming months as investors focus on investments in multi-price-point and the potential for near-term earnings upside from the initiative.
Ollie's (OLLI, $79.74) Gordon Haskett downgrades from Buy to Accumulate and lowers its target from $100 to $90 after yesterday's 1Q26 results, says the +1.7% comp was well below comparable retailers, including the off-pricers, which grew comps by 12% on average in the quarter, and also says Ollie's should have done better given the much higher tax refund dollars in the system.
PVH Corporation (PVH, $98.00) Evercore ISI downgrades from Outperform to In Line and lowers its target from $95 to $79 after the 1Q26 results, says it was a "low quality update" and sees risk of add'l negative estimate revisions in the back half of the year, also notes PVH is among few retailers incorporating a benefit from tariff refunds in its FY26 guidance, and ex this benefit, the firm says management would not have been able to maintain margin and earnings guidance.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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