Companies and Subjects discussed in this morning's report include: Dick's misses and lowers guidance on Foot Locker weakness, Citi Trends reports a strong 2Q26 and raises guidance, West Marine makes a short trip through Ch 11, SHEIN's Hong Kong IPO is fully subscribed, Consumer Confidence slips on gas prices...
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DoR Consumer Research
Investor Oriented | Retail & Consumer
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Published Daily by ~11:30 AM ET
Dick's Misses on Foot Locker Weakness + Citi Trends' Strong 2Q26, West Marine's Ch 11 Exit...
THIS WEEK'S CALENDAR
UPDATED EACH MORNING
All Times Are Eastern
Monday (8/24)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary weekly Store Opening/Closing Analysis
Tuesday (8/25)
- Dick's Sporting Goods reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps/EPS of +4.0%/$3.76
- Citi Trends reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 10.5%, EPS of ($0.32)
- Consumer Confidence for August at 10:00 am, Street at 90.2 vs. prior 90.8
- New Home Sales for July at 10:00 am, Street at 612K SAAR vs. prior 628K
Wednesday (8/26)
- Personal Income/Spend for July at 8:30 am, St at +0.2%/+0.2% m/m, prior +0.3%/+0.2%
- Abercrombie & Fitch reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 0.8%, EPS of $1.99
- Bath & Body Works reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps/EPS of (3.9%)/$0.24
- Kohl's reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps down 0.6%, EPS of $0.58
- Williams-Sonoma reports 2Q26, call 10:00 am, Street at comps up 4.5%, EPS of $2.08
- Urban Outfitters reports 2Q27, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 5.8%, EPS of $1.72
Thursday (8/27)
- Dollar Tree reports 2Q26, call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 3.2%, EPS of $1.15
- Best Buy reports 2Q27 call 8:00 am, Street at comps up 1.3%, EPS of $1.39
- Jobless Claims for the week ended 8/22/26 at 8:30 am, Street at 208K vs. prior 206K
- Burlington reports 2Q26, call 8:30 am, Street at comps up 3.0%, EPS of $2.19
- Dollar General reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at comps up 2.6%, EPS of $2.01
- Build-A-Bear reports 2Q26, call 9:00 am, Street at sales/EPS of $120.8M/$0.65
- Ulta Beauty reports 2Q26, call 4:30 pm, Street at comps up 2.3%, EPS of $6.20
- Gap reports 2Q26, call 5:00 pm, Street at comps up 0.2%, EPS of $0.48
Friday (8/28)
- DoRCR publishes its proprietary Next Week's Calendar
- U. Mich. Sentiment for August (final) at 10:00 am, Street at 51.0 vs. prior 51.0
**Colors Indicate Directional Change from First Time Shown in Our Calendar**
TODAY'S EARLY TRADING
The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down 1.2% as of ~11:05 am vs. a 0.2% gain in the S&P 500. Retail stocks are underperforming as a miss and guide-down from Dick's Sporting Goods hits shares of DKS and others with exposure to athleticwear, especially footwear.
- Weaker retail stocks include DKS, which is down 27%, also SHOE (down 9%), CTRN (down 8%, profit taking after strong results), PRPL (down 8%) and FIGS (down 5%), while shares of TGT are down 4% on some negative PR related to a children's Halloween costume.
- Stronger retail stocks include LVLU, ODD, RENT, NXH and LUXE, all up 1%-7%.
MARKET-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS
All Stock Prices as of Last Close
- Comps increased 2.1% after +4.1% in the first quarter and included a 4.9% increase at Dick's and a 3.6% decrease at Foot Locker, while total sales grew 50%+ y/y to $5.59B, including $3.85B from Dick's, up 6% y/y, and a $1.74B contribution from Foot Locker.
- Dick's comps were driven by broad-based growth across merchandise categories, the FIFA World Cup, and increases in both ticket and transactions, while Foot Locker's comps were negatively impacted by "challenging conditions in the athletic footwear marketplace."
- Non-GAAP EPS were $3.53 vs. $4.38 last year and the Street's $3.76 and incorporated a 490 bps decrease in operating margin, to 8.1%, mostly on the inclusion of Foot Locker but also on pricing actions at Dick's to "protect and grow (its) leadership position."
- Full-year guidance now calls for total sales of $21.9B-$22.2B vs. a prior $22.1B-$22.4B and incorporating +2.5%-4.0% comps at Dick's, unchanged from before, and flat to down 2% comps at Foot Locker, down from a prior up 1.5%-3.0% range.
- Non-GAAP EPS are now expected at $11.00-$12.00 vs. a prior $13.50-$14.50 range.
- On the Call, mgmt said weakness at Foot Locker was more pronounced in EMEA than elsewhere and noted a more competitive promotional backdrop and greater consumer caution in EMEA, which contributed to excess inventory and margin pressure.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The legacy business continues to strongly outperform the industry and take share, a reflection of the company's more compelling "box" and superior merchandising and marketing vs. competitors, but Foot Locker's slowing is likely to strongly reignite investor concerns about the rationale behind the $2.4B acquisition and Dick's ability to fix the business.
- The +10.5% comp was driven by increases in average ticket and transactions and puts the two-year stack at +19.7%, a slight moderation from +13.9% and +23.8% (two-year) in the first quarter, which benefited from significantly higher tax refunds than last year.
- Total sales grew 11% to $211.6M on y/y increases in every merchandise category.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $6.6M, up from ($1.1M) last year and better than the Street's $2.5M estimate and incorporated 60 bps of gross margin improvement on improved merch margin and lower shrink, which were partially offset by higher freight b/c of fuel surcharges.
- Inventories look good and were up 8% y/y, below total sales growth of 11%.
- Full-year guidance now includes comps of +9%-11% vs. a prior +8%-10%, total sales growth of 10%-12% from $820.0M in FY25 and a prior +9%-11%, and adjusted EBITDA of $38M-$42M vs. $11.8M last year and a prior $35M-$40M and vs. the Street's $46.3M estimate.
- Citi Trends opened four stores and closed one in the quarter, finished with 594 stores, and is now planning to open 20 new stores this year vs. a prior 25 new stores.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: The modest slowdown in the two-year comp is not surprising given the benefit of higher tax refunds in the first quarter -- Citi Trends' business has always been highly sensitive to tax refunds, bigger and smaller -- but the overall trend is very healthy and impressive and appears to reflect better merchandising via better brands and an improved value proposition.
Analyst Actions that could move retail stocks today:
- Five Below (FIVE, $262.72) Loop Capital downgrades from Buy to Hold
- Signet Jewelers (SIG, $83.45) Citi opens an "Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch" call
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
SHEIN's (Singapore) Hong Kong IPO book -- SHEIN is looking to raise up to $1.8B -- has been fully covered by investor demand acc'd to Reuters, which says the company launched its share sale yesterday in an offering that is expected to value SHEIN at $27B vs. a 2022 peak of nearly $100B and notes the stock is expected to begin trading at the beginning of next week.
Zodiac Partners said in an SEC filing its $0.84 per share tender offer to acquire Destination XL (DXLG, $0.64) has expired and terminated and that it will purchase no shares after the Minimum Tender Condition and other conditions were not satisfied as of the Expiration Time.
- Only 23% of shares were validly tendered prior to the Expiration Time.
Kroger has launched delivery of groceries and prescription meds from nearly all of its banners nationwide through Instacart, and deliveries are covered for Boost by Kroger Plus members.
FAO Schwarz has opened a new toy shop inside Nordstrom's Dallas North-Park Center store and plans to expand its in-store toy shops to seven more Nordstrom stores across the US.
Petsense (Tractor Supply) has launched same-day delivery from its 200+ stores in 23 states in as fast as an hour with no markups via Instacart in an exclusive delivery partnership.
Academy Sports + Outdoors announced plans to launch 200 Ariat (Western boots/wear) in-store shops this fall, part of an expanded 20+ year partnership between the two companies.
Strathberry, a Scotland-based luxury handbag and cashmere brand, is close to selling a significant minority stake to London-based private equity firm Soho Square Capital at a GBP100M valuation acc'd to Sky News, which says a deal could happen in the next few weeks.
Regent, a Los Angeles-based private equity firm, said yesterday it will acquire Avon North America from LG Household & Health Care (South Korea), which bought the business from Cerberus for $125M in cash in 2019, and that it will reunite Avon North America and Avon International, which it acquired at the end of last year; terms for this latest acquisition were not disclosed.
West Marine has made a quick trip through bankruptcy and exited Ch 11 after closing ~100 stores, or roughly half the fleet, reducing its debt by $265M+, and securing an add'l $10M in financing to support day-to-day ops. West Marine, which is based in Fort Lauderdale and was owned by L Catterton and Oaktree, filed Ch 11 in mid-May and is now owned by its term loan lenders.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Raley's, which has ~120 grocery stores in northern California and Nevada under several banners, plans to close three Raley's stores, in Brentwood, CA, Elko, NV and Petaluma, CA, from November 2026 through January 2027, and one Nob Hill Foods, in Los Gatos, CA, in mid-2027, will take total store closings across the company to seven for 2026 and into next year.
Whole Foods, which has 550+ stores in the US, Canada and the UK, will open two new stores in California in September, one at The Village in Elk Grove on 9/16/26 and another in downtown San Diego on 9/23/26, will take total stores in the state to 95.
MANAGEMENT UPDATES
The Vitamin Shoppe President since 2023, company exec since 2020 and former Macy's, Bergdorf Goodman and Estee Lauder exec Muriel Gonzalez has retired, and VP, GMM since 2024, 7-year company exec, and former longtime Toys"R"Us buyer Jack Gayton has been promoted to SVP, Merchandising, and has assumed Vitamin Shoppe's lead merchandising role, which had been held by Gonzalez.
Walmart Chief Communications Officer since mid-2023 and former Yum! Brands, Mars and Coca-Cola corporate affairs and communications exec Allyson Park is stepping down and shifting into an advisory role at the beginning of September as the company looks externally for a successor.
MACRO/CONSUMER INSIGHT
Out at 10:00 am, Consumer Confidence for August was slightly below expectations at 89.4 vs. the Street's 90.2 and a slight decline from a revised 90.2 in July as growing concerns about the price of gasoline more than offset an improvement in short-term expectations about the job market.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Consumer anxiety has been elevated for some time now and doesn't seem to be having a big impact on spending decisions, but if we get another disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report, fragile psychology could come more into play as it relates to Retail Sales.
Also out at 10:00 am, New Home Sales for July were weaker than expected and fell 11% m/m to an annualized rate of 607K, the lowest level in six months, while the median sales price of a new home decreased 1% y/y to $393,800, and the supply of new homes for sale decreased 2%.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: New Home Sales can be more volatile than other housing market indicators, but there's no doubt housing remains in a slump, held back by stubbornly-high mortgage rates, high prices, and low supply, and this all continues to be a headwind for home-oriented retail.
Out this morning and acc'd to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a gallon of regular Unleaded Gasoline cost $4.09 on average across the US for the week ended 8/24/26, up $0.04 from the prior week and up $0.94 per gallon from the same week last year.
- A gallon of diesel cost $5.65, up $0.20 on the week and up $1.94 from last year.
- DoRCR INSIGHT: Gas prices could come down quickly with a US/Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but for now, the significant y/y increase is a meaningful headwind to discretionary spending, esp by lower-income consumers (e.g. core dollar store customer).
Source: The Conference Board and Bloomberg (for chart)
SELECT ANALYST ACTIONS
Signet Jewelers (SIG, $83.45) Citi maintains a Buy rating and $120 target and opens an "Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch" call on the stock in front of second results on Wednesday 9/9/26, thinks the numbers will be in line with Street estimates and expects management to raise guidance to the high-end of a prior range, also sees a compelling risk/reward opportunity.
Search Select Analyst Actions for the past 12 months here
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